http://www.vimeo.com/1389914

Technorati Tags: C.J. Giles, Gord Herbert, Hassan Adams, Joel Bosh, Joey Graham, Nathan Jawai

Just like the Eastern preview, remember- that what you read below is sure to change and is only barring injury.  Every year at least one team gets hit “hard” by the injury bug AND even the best teams in the NBA can end up in the lottery if their superstar spends any significant time on the shelf.

If we use the same criteria as the Eastern preview, in terms of 3 teirs, the West shakes down a little bit more top-heavy than the East. But much like the East, there are a lot of teams in the second teir who are not really a championship contender as they are currently constructed.

Teir 1 - the Cream of the Crop:

• These are teams who are a lock to win 50 games + and contend -not only for the West- but for the NBA title as well.
• In the Western Conference, , now while there are only two teams in the East (Boston and Detroit) who fit this criteria, at the present moment, the West houses 4 legitimate title contenders: NO, LAL, UTAH, and SA

Teir 2 - Good but not Great

• These are teams who would be a lock to make the playoffs in the East, but by being in the West, their record that will fall somewhere between .500 basketball and 55 wins makes them susceptible to ending up in the lottery.  In the Western Conference, one could argue that as many almost half the conference fits this category and ultimately some teams in the West who are this good will miss the playoffs. At least 2 and as many as 4 wont make the playoffs.
• These are teams who are “one guy away” from being in teir one: HOU, DAL, PHEO, DEN, GS, LAC, POR, SACTO

Teir 3 - Decent but not Good

• These are teams who are in the process of turning things around and on the way up probably not good enough to play .500 basketball and are a few years away from real contention in the West: MINN, MEM, OAK

TO RECAP- here are the seeds:

1 - Utah Jazz

In the West, there are a lot of teams you could argue belong in the #1 slot, but my money is on Utah. For starters, the combo of Williams and Boozer is the best PG/PF combo in basketball, and when surrounded by Okur, Korver, Brewer, and the underachieving but still valuable Kirilenko, and a coach who has made the playoffs just about every season since 1982! And you realize how deadly this team can be. They have one of the best coaches in basketball, one of the deepest benches in basketball, they are consistently one the best home teams in basketball, and are often the most physical teams in basketball (in that they go to the FT line more than any team, year in and year out). When you combine all this together with back to back 50 win seasons and back to back deep playoff runs and you have the makings of a powerhouse team about to arrive on the scene. Adding Korver last year at the deadline made them sooo much better, and how do you bet against a team that has both the brewer and the boozer working together? 60 wins is a reality.

2 - New Orleans Hornets

If you took the above paragraph and replaced the names above with: CPaul, DWest, Chandler, Stojackavic, and Byron Scott and you have the New Orleans Hornets. Im not sure Ive ever seen a season like CP3s last year, and he is only getting better. And while last year was their first trip to the post season, they gave SA all they could handle. The addition of Posey is really going to help this team. I think the full mid level for 4 years is a lot to pay, but I think it is that signing that ultimately puts them in the market for a 60 win season and moves them into the number 2 seed in the West over top of:

3 - Los Angeles Lakers

Any team that has Kobe on it and the Zen master as its coach is legit. Adding Gasol was amazing and having Bynum back should really make this team the best team in the West but I cant put money on a 19 year old centre with 33 games of NBA experience. AND the way they went out in the finals, the way they got PUNKED, I just cant get that out of my head. My fear is that they are going to overreact to that loss and deal Odom, who I think is more important to their system than most fans recognize. This team was not only too soft, it really lacked depth on the bench- losing Turiaf and pretty boy V due to cap reasons aint going to help. I love the Lakers and my heart wants to pick them as the #1 seed but when you look at how good 1-9, or even 1-10 that Utah or NO is and the fact that they won 56 and 54 games last year (the lakers won 57) its hard to argue for LA.

4 - San Antonio Spurs

They are just as boring to talk about as they are to watch, but all they do is win. Is there anybody better than Tim Duncan? 55 wins and the #4 seed is a bit of a disappointment in San Antonio and even without any real additions, its just how they roll.

5 -Houston Rockets

Here is a really strange scenario. Here you have a team with 2 real superstars in Yao and TMac, a fundamentally sound 4 in Scola, one of the most underrated wing men in Battier, and a great coach in Adelman. Every year I pick this team to finish top 3 and every year they disappoint. This time, however, Im not falling for their Jedi mind tricks. They still have no legit point guard- and every raps fan is with me on this one- Alston can not lead a legitimate championship contender. And while I had said that all teams get a clean bill of health for this preview, I find it hard to believe that Yao, after all the pressure on him this summer in the Olympics, and coming off a season ending injury, is going to have what it takes to keep the engine of this team moving. Add to that all the rumours around Tmac, who is already the most ADD player in the NBA, and while I think they’ll still win 50 games due to talent, I think its those little things that put them in the second teir. I also don’t anticipate another 22 game win streak.

6 - Phoenix Suns

I really don’t like this team. I don’t like its hire for coach, I still don’t like the trading of Marion, and more than anything else- I hate how they have done nothing to address their issues of needing a back-up point guard and a wing player to compliment Hill. But, Amare is just sooo insanely good and Nash, Shaq, Bell, Diaw, and Barbosa are too good to not win a minimum of 48 games and that I think puts that no lower than the 6 seed.

7 - Portland Trailblazers

Here comes the jump- from on the bubble to real playoff team. Even with the loss of Jones and the trading away of spare parts, this team continues to draft insanely talented players and stockpile prospects galore. Forgetting for a moment any moves the Blazers have made in the last 3 months and just simply adding Oden and Fernandez (and maybe even Kopponen) to this roster makes this team for real. FYI- love the coach. When they finally do decide to trade a bunch of their parts for a legit point guard to pair in the backcourt with Roy, this team will win 55 games and move up into teir one.

8 - Los Angeles Clippers

I really like the deal for Camby and the signing of Davis. And while this team would have been better if Brand had stayed or if they got something in a sign and trade for Magette, a starting line-up of Davis and Eric Grodon in the back court and a frontcourt of Thorton, Camby, and Kaman is pretty damn good and should be good enough to make the playoffs. Plus, unlike anyone else in the league, they STILL have cap space to make more moves.

The bad news: under these predictions, teams like Dallas, Golden State, Denver and Sacramento all miss the playoffs (since somebody in the West who wins 45+ games ultimately will).

Quickly, here’s my thoughts for why they miss the playoffs:

DAL - too old too quick. Im not sure they can recover from the JKidd trade and the Josh Howard debacle just by hiring Carlisle. And while he is a great coach, isn’t he just like Avery? Controlling, Demanding, half-court oriented? Dirk is awesome, but the rest of this team is garbage- and they have no bench. Its time to blow it up.

DEN - Why trade Camby for a 2^nd round pick if you truly believe you are a contender? Kmart and Nene are not a strong enough defense to make up for a back court of AI and Melo. This team is in trouble- because they may score 120 points a night but they are going to give up 130, easy.

GS - Magette and Turiaf in, Baron out? Still don’t understand? Ellis is not a PG- who is going to run this team?

SAC - really like this team. One more year and some parts for Artest and you have a team looking to contend again starting in 09. But still one more year away.

As always, I’m the Doctor, I’m standing in the key and I’m planning on taking a charge!

phdsteve

Technorati Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Hornets, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trailblazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz

Remember that what you rad below is sure to change and is only barring injury.  Every year at least one team gets hit “hard” by the injury bug, AND even the best teams in the NBA can end up in the lottery if their superstar spends any significant time on the shelf.

As it stands right now, the Raptors are a top 5 team in the East, with the potential to win 50 games, and make some noise come the playoffs. BUT if you think of the East in terms of 3 tiers, the Raptors are in the second tier, with a whole lot of other teams and not really a championship contender as they are currently constructed.

Tier 1 - the Cream of the Crop:

• These are teams who are a lock to win 50 games + and contend - not only for the East - but for the NBA title as well.
• In the Western Conference, one could argue that as many as 6 teams fit this criteria.  In the East there are only two teams: Boston and Detroit

Tier 2 - Good but not Great

• These are teams who are a lock to make the playoffs in the East simply by playing .500 basketball.  At least 1 and probably as many as 3 of these teams will win 50 games next year.
• They might cause some problems for the tier 1 teams in the playoffs but only under *special circumstances* (like Lebron scoring 30 straight points against Detroit 2 years ago) do they make it to the conference finals or the the NBA finals.
• In the Western Conference, one could argue that as many almost half the conference fits this category and ultimately some teams in the West who are this good will miss the playoffs.
• In the East there are Five teams who are “one guy away” from being in tier one: Orlando, Cleveland, Toronto, Phily, and Washington

Tier 3 - Decent but not Good

• These are teams who are in the process of turning things around and on the way up probably not good enough to play .500 basketball.  However, at least 1 of these teams will make the playoffs next year and maybe 2 or 3 of these teams will if some other teams experience some significant injuries 50 games next year.
• In the East there are Six teams who on the rise but not quite there: Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Indiana, New York, Charlotte, and Milwaukee
• If I had to pick one, right now, to make the playoffs I’m going with the Knicks.

TO RECAP - here are the seeds:

1 - Boston Celtics

You really have to give the champs credit for not only winning 66 games in the regular season last year but for also rising above a sub-par first 2 rounds of the playoffs to fairly easily dispose of both the Pistons and Lakers.  Even if Posey resigns elsewhere, this team remains relatively unchanged from last year and will have lots of veterans hoping to be released come February with the hopes of signing on with the Celts for the veterans minimum.  And while some intensity drop-off is to be expected, even if they loose 10 more games than last year (which is hard to do in the NBA without significant injuries), this team still wins 56 games and at worst the #2 seed in the East.  Until someone else steps up and makes a major move, they have to be the favorites to repeat as champs in the East and probably overall as well.

2 - Detroit Pistons

People often forget that the second best team in the NBA last year was Detroit- not LA, PHE, NO, DAL, or SA.   This is a team that won 59 games last year and made it to their 6th straight conference finals.  Even if they change nothing other than the coach - you can expect this team to win somewhere between 52-60 games on experience, grit, and talent alone.  However, Joe Dumars is not happy with how content this team has become - so, in addition to more playing time for young guys like Amir johnson and Rodney Stuckey, I think you can expect to see at least one of last years starters (and probably two) moved in a big-time move that brings back some superstar power to the Motorcity.  With a new coach and a new “go-to guy” Detroit will loose some ground in the regular season and probably only win somewhere between 47-54 games, but you can expect them to come out hungrier and angrier than ever in the playoffs, AND after having time to gel as a team - I expect them to be very dangerous in the playoffs.  In fact, its hard to find a safer bet in the NBA than this: Detroit will make it to the Eastern conference Finals.

3 - Cleveland Cavaliers

Any team that has Lebron on it has a chance to win every night.  he single-handedly took this team to the finals 2 years ago and almost beat the Celtics by himself last year.  Given the fact that guys like Joe Smith, Wallace, etc will have had some time to settle in from the big trade - and that half this team comes off the cap next summer, I expect that even Danny Ferry couldn’t mess this one up, AND by the trade deadline you should see some more star power in Cleveland.  Having Varajeo from Day one this year will also help. This team should win 50 games this year and is the most legitimate of the contenders for the #3 seed in the East.  If Detroit shakes things up and takes some time to “gel” Cleveland could wind up as high as the number 2 seed in the East.

4 - Washington Wizards

You have to think that a healthy Jamison, Arenas, and Butler are good for 50 wins right?  I’m just not sure you will ever see all 3 of these guys play at the same time!  But if you do, and you combine that will an up and comer like Blatche, and a GREAT coach (Eddie Jordan might be the most underrated coach in the NBA) this team should win their division and somewhere between 48-54 games claiming at worst the #4 seed (as the division winner) and a first round match -up with someone other that Cleveland - which is certain to make Agent 0 scream “hibachi” in excitement at the thought of finally winning a series.

5 -Toronto Raptors

Sorry Raptors Fans.  As you know there is no one out there more pro JO than the Dr., but as currently constructed I think this team wins 46-51 games (I think it could be more but Smitch is good for 3-5 extra losses a year due to poor timeouts, no plays called out of time outs, poor clock managements, and strange substitutions- not to mention unexplainable starting lineups).  That should be enough for the 4th best record in the East BUT since they are in the same division as the Celtics, if they don’t get 3rd, 5th is where they will land.  I think this is the best Raps team we have every had in this city and feel they could make a run to the conference finals (with a little luck) but without a turnaround year from Il Mago or some new, crazy, unheard of role player emerging into the starting lineup (a la Jamario Moon) - this team is likely to improve but still find itself falling short come playoff time.  Especially with so many “unproven winners”  on this team.  Most of these guys have only lost (and in a really bad way) in the playoffs.  More veteran leadership is needed here - as well as an “Xs and Os” assistant coach who sleeps with his clipboard and dreams of plays that attract the double in the low post and result in wide open 3s for Kapono and Calderon coming out of EVERY timeout and stoppage of play.

6 - Orlando Magic

If you had to pick a team to take a “step back” in 2008 I think its the Magic.  Unlike many other experts who think the Pietrus signing was a bonus for this team - I think they had more pressing needs.  I’m not sure that any combination of Lee (who they drafted in the first round this year), JJ Reddick (who they drafted in the first round two years ago) and or Peitrus will fill the void a the 2 spot, especially when you consider that signing Pietrus used up the money they needed to resign Dooling.  Jameer Nelson is a decent NBA point guard (who made TJ and Jose look stupid last year in the playoffs) but not great, and this is a real area of need for this team.  Combine the lack of depth with the reality that Hedo had a career year last year (and so defenses will be looking for him this year) and that Lewis is just not an NBA max money guy - and what you have is a capped out team with lots of role players and one really good player in Howard.  SVG may be the best coach in the East but guys only like getting yelled at for so long before it grows old.  AND with Miami, Washington, and Atlanta expected to be better this year, Orlando will loose some division games that were “gimmies” last season. I expect Orland to win 45 games this year and compete for their division but this is a really a 6 seed in the East at best (maybe a 5 seed with some breaks or a 4 seed if they can win their division).  This team is just not that good.

7 - Philadelphia 76ers

Lots of people are in love with the Sixers right now and they seem to think that adding Brand to this team instantly makes them the best front court in the East and the 3rd best team in the conference.  AND while they gave Detroit some issues in the playoffs last year lets not forget some very important points like:

• Any team that has Samuel Dalembert at the 5 can’t be in the discussion for the best front court in the conference.  I mean really, Dalembert and Brand over Bosh and O’Neal?  Heck I’d take Bosh and Rasho.
• Iggy may be a nice little player BUT he is not a great little player.  He laid a big FAT egg last year in the playoffs against Detroit.  His career is destined for more a MoPete role now that Philly actually has a legit scorer.  Lets not forget that Doug Christie scored 20+ a game in the Raps early years when they had no talent.

This team won 40 games last year.  I expect them to win as many 10 more games, BUT a 10 game turnaround in the NBA is huge - especially when you think that Brand is the only addition.  More than likely, this team wins 44-48 games and is the 7 seed in the East.

8 - New York Knicks

Believe it or not, picking the 8 seed in the East might be the most difficult prediction in basketball.  You have to think that Indy, Milwaukee, and Charlotte are better teams today than 2 months ago and have really good coaches in Larry Brown, Scott Skiles, and Jim O’Brien who if nothing else will demand their players to compete every night.  Each roster also has a good deal of talent and should be much more competitive.  Likewise, Jersey, Miami, and Chicago who appeared to have started towards rebuilding still have enough talent that they could be competitive for the eight spot.  And lets not forget that to get the 8 spot last year in the east only required 37 wins.

BUT, if I had to pick one team to make a turn around I’m going to go with Mike Dantoni and the NYK.  Even if they don’t make another move between now and opening day, with Duhon at the point, Z-bo and Curry in the paint, Crawford, and Galineri on the wings and guys like Lee and Robinson off the bench - I think Dantoni’s system (and more importantly his basketball philosophy) will take the negativity out of the dressing room and make the game “fun” for his players to play again.  And that alone, I think, is worth a good 6-8 wins this year.  However, I think it is very likely that Donnie Walsh will move some more bodies out and bring in some more run and gunners - and while Boston and Detroit will still be the first choices of veterans looking for the minimum to play in the East, I suspect that by 2009, NYK will be back on the radar as a desirable destination for NBAers to play and have fun.

As always, I’m the Doctor, I’m standing in the key and Im planning on taking a charge.

phdsteve

Technorati Tags: Amir Johnson, Anderson Varajeo, Andrea Bargnani, Andrey Blatche, Antwan Jamison, Atlanta Hawks, Ben Wallace, Boston Celtics, Caron Butler, Charlotte Bobcats, Chicago Bulls, Chris Duhon, Cleveland Cavaliers, Danilo Gallinari, David Lee, Detroit Pistons, Donnie Walsh, Doug Christie, Dwight Howard, Eddie Jordan, Eddy Curry, Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, Hedu Turkoglu, Indiana Pacers, Jamaal Crawford, Jamario Moon, Jameer Nelson, Jason Kapono, Jermain O’neal, Jim O’Brien, JJ Reddick, Joe Dumars, Joe Smith, Jose Calderon, Keyon Dooling, Larry Brown, Lebron James, Miami Heat, Mickael Pietrus, Mike Dantoni, Milwaukee Bucks, Morris Peterson, Nate Robinson, NBA Eastern Conference Review, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Rashard Lewis, Rasho Nesterovic, Rodney Stuckey, Sam Mitchell, Samuel Dalembert, Scott Skiles, Stan Van Gundy, TJ Ford, Tracy McGrady, Washington Wizards, Zach Randolph

http://www.vimeo.com/1332776

Technorati Tags: Jermaine O’Neal, Matt Devlin, Raptors Videos

http://www.vimeo.com/1315775

Technorati Tags: Bryan Colangelo, Jermaine O’Neal, Raptors Press Conference, Raptors Video, Sam Mitchell

Headlining the squad is Chris Bosh’s 22 year old brother Joel. Joel played the last four years at Alabama State, averaging 6.6 ppg and 4.4 rpg in his senior year. Although he saw limited time with Alabama State, he may find some groove playing for the franchise his older brother is the face for.

Other players named to the camp are Hassan Adams, Daniel Ewing, Deji Akindele, Sean Banks, Rod Benson, Coleman Collins, Thomas Gardner, John Lucas III and C.J. Giles.

• Joey Graham is the only returning player to the squad and will look to impress the coaching staff with a strong camp
• Adams, who was signed by the Raptors last week, is a defensive minded guard who last played 61 games for the New Jersey Nets
• Ewing is a former Duke guard and Clipper 2nd round pick that has struggled to adapt to the NBA game
• Akindele is a 7″1 center who has spent time with the Warriors and Bobcats organizations, but never cracked the line up
• Banks spent last season with the LA Defenders of the NBADL and averaged 21.7 ppg
• Benson averaged a double-double for the Dakota Wizards last season in the NBADL
• Collins played for Ludwigsburg in Germany last year
• Gardner has spent time with the Bulls, but was released last season; Lucas III has 60 NBA games under his belt with the Rockets
• Giles a highly touted player, but has been kicked out of two college programs.

As of July 9th the Raptors will have 12 players under contract. Hopefully the Raptors find what they need via free agency, but if Colangelo doesn’t, we may see one of these players cracking the squad.

Technorati Tags: Bryan Colangelo, C.J. Giles, Coleman Collins, Daniel Ewing, Deji Akindele, Hassan Adams, Joel Bosh, Joey Graham, John Lucas III, Rod Benson, Sean Banks, Thomas Gardner

A couple of days a go it looked like only Arenas would be the only real FA of any value, but then the crazy Elton Brand and Baron Davis opt outs happened and the result has been even more craziness.

What we know today… we already knew before FA even started:

1. That Arenas and Jamison would re-sign in Washington and no-one outside of Washington a) cares or b) takes them seriously as a contender in the East.
2. That no matter how much $ Philly and Memphis have, no one wants to play there
3. That all the real talent and player moves are going to be dealing with the restricted FAs. So the reason why there has been so little movement so far is because everyone is waiting for someone else to make the first move…..ENTER THE GS WARRIORS…

You see, now that Baron and Elton are going to LAC, this leaves GS as the undisputed King of Cap space this summer. And since there are no more real players in the marketplace (other than Maggette, who really doesn’t fit well in GS) you can expect to see the Warriors go out and try to purge away a couple of good young players from other teams. And even though Chicago, Charlotte, and Atlanta say they will match any offer made to one of their RFAs (restricted free agents), I fully expect to see one or more of of: Deng, Gordon, Smith, Childress, Igudala, or Okafor in GS when the season starts.

So, there is lots of good talent out there but its all restricted and with so few teams having cap space, the most $ that 98% of them can offer a RFA is the mid-level, and any GM will match a mid level offer.

This is also the reason why it looks more and more like Magette is going to end up in Boston or SA, since nobody has any real money to offer him, he might as well try to win a ring if he is going to have to settle for the mid-level.

Finally, players like Pietrus, Posey, Dooling and others in the second or even third teir of FAs have to wait until the big names (like Brand and Baron) and the next rung on the ladder (the RFAs like Iggy, Gordon, Deng, etc) sign or are sign-and-traded, before teams are going to start to dish out their mid-levels.

Lastly, teams are very weary about signing unproven talent to long term contracts since nobody wants to have too much $$$ on the books with the FA crop of 2010 which includes not only LeBron, Bosh, and Wade, but also Amare, Nash, McGrady, Nowitzki, and others, being perhaps the greatest FA crop ever.

Check it out for yourself, ESPN’s Free Agent List.

So, Colangelo is playing the same game as everyone else in the league right now…the waiting game. And while I’d like to see him be MORE proactive and aggressive, it makes sense to let things play themselves out.

For example, if Chicago resigns both Gordon and Deng, then their might be some truth to the rumours reported in the NJ papers today that Chicago is shopping Nocioni (who we know the Raps tried to acquire at the deadline).

Or, once the market softens and guys aren’t getting the big money they think is coming but hasn’t really been dished out to smaller FAs over the last two seasons (not including Kapono)- a guy like Nachbar, who is an unrestricted FA and good friend of assistant GM Gheradini might come to Toronto for less than the mid-level.

Or even, a guy like Posey or Pietrus might find themselves without a lot of options (just like they both did last year when the market appeared hot but cooled off significantly and both were still seeking work in august).

Or, Sacto might just decide that its not worth bring Ron-Ron and all his baggage to training camp since he already said that he regrets not opting out - and then put him on the market.

Those are just 4 possible answers to the “3″ that everyone in Toronto is longing for so badly that might make themselves available as time passes and “not much happens” this summer. And there is no doubt that many more of these type of options will also appear with everyday that passes.

What everyone is waiting for is the first shoe to drop and right now that first shoe belongs to GS, Philly, and Memphis who are the only teams with cap space to offer players anything more than the mid-level. Once they show their cards and either spend their dollars or force other teams to match offer sheets and restrict their flexibility (ie. offering Josh Smith a $12 mil contract and then offering Josh Childress a $10 mil contract the day after Atlanta matches the Smith contract), then everyone will be in the same boat…totally capped out and only the mid level left to spend.

THEN , whoever is still a UFA will have to take less money to sign and whoever is an RFA, will also have to take less money for a long term deal with their current club, get a team to sign and trade for them, or accept a one year qualifying deal at peanuts for the chance to be a UFA next summer. Either way, in another week, once we know what GS and PHI are doing, everyone else can then start to move forward.

I’m still hoping that BC thinks outside the box and throws some cash to a guy like Horry. His 7 rings, ability to hit the big shot, high Bball IQ, and ability to give 15-20 quality minutes a night backing up Bosh would be a HUGE addition to this team. And since there isn’t a huge marketplace for 38 year old players, you have to think a multi-year deal a 3 mil/year would be more than the veterans minimum and more than he would get anywhere else. I know it would be overpaying for what he brings on the court, but think about what he brings to the dressing room.

As for solving the wing problem - I’m happy with Kapono and Moon splitting time at the 3, and would rather see the team go after a slashing 2 guard who could create off the dribble and start so that AP could come off the bench.

So although things are moving slowly, you cant say there is nothing to talk about….gotta love the NBA!

As always, standing in the key, Im the Dr. , Ive got my feet planted and Im planning on taking a charge.

Phdsteve

Technorati Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Andre Iguadala, Andres Nocioni, Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis, Ben Gordon, Bostjan Nachbar, Bryan Colangelo, Chris Bosh, Corey Maggette, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwayne Wade, Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, Gilbert Arenas, James Posey, Jason Kapono, Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Keyon Dooling, Lebron James, Luol Deng, Maurizio Gheradini, Mickael Pietrus, Robert Horry, Ron Artest, Steve Nash, Tracy McGrady

SO in no particular order, here are some thoughts to keep your mind hopping while we wait for the next big transaction:

GIVE ME A 3 OR GIVE ME DEATH

I think Raps Fan raises a really great point here - and even though I would rather have JO than a slashing 3 and even though I’m not sold on Gerald Wallace or Mickael Pietrus, Raps Fan is right: a slashing 3 puts this team over the top. The brain trust at MLSE certainly believes that the main issues with this team were on the interior, not on the perimeter, and that is why they went big- both with JO trade and with the draft. The goal is to “up” the points in the paint and offensive rebounding on one end and cut both those stats down on the other. As it stands now, I think this team can win 50 games and is a legit contender in the East, but to be considered a realistic contender for the NBA title, this team does need to add a slashing 3. The problem is, those guys just cant be found everywhere. Hopefully BC can find a way to address this in the marketplace or maybe Jamario Moon can actually become this type of player (no seriously), but I think that unless BC is willing to move Bargnani, they don’t appear to have too many other chips to bring in this kind of player.

FREE AGENCY

Now I know everyone in Toronto is in love with Maggette (including me) and I know he would patch a lot of holes, but assuming that BC and the Clips cant make a sign and trade deal for him, then what? Even if we can bring in Maggette, this team needs some more experience - and by this I mean guys with rings - and not cheap rings like PJ Brown in Boston, real rings like Robert Horry or Sam Cassell (from Houston, not Boston). So in addition to bringing in a guy a like Duhon to back up Calderon with the mid-level (although all signs point to Roko coming over to play next season so that is not looking too good right now) I’d like to see the raps throw their midlevel at a guy who can play 15 mins a night but can bring the intangibles AND teach this team how to win.

THE DRAFT

I cried when CDR went 40th overall.

Look it up, I have yet to read a sports analyst write about the draft and NOT comment on how Jersey may have had the steal of the night by getting him this late.

I’m Ok with Nathan Jawai at #41. At 6″10 and 270lbs, he has been called a “poor mans Elton Brand.” Even if he only ends up being a poor mans version of a poor mans Elton Brand, Id be ok with that. Word on the street is that he is coming over this fall and will occupy the vacant seat in row 2 that Maceo Baston kept warm all season. Hope he owns some nice suits! No, seriously, for a team so badly undersized who got completely embarrassed in the middle in the Orlando series (and all year long for that matter) adding more size cant hurt.

KEVIN MCHALE

Can somebody please do something about this? How does this man still have a license to draft? This guy is a like a drunk driver who keeps getting behind the wheel. How many more mistakes are we going to let this man make before someone intervenes. The league needs to appoint someone to act on his behalf and on behalf of the entire Timberwolves franchise, perhaps a Minster of Self Defence? Or how about Minister of are you f#%$(% stupid? The Joe Smith debacle should have tipped off a few people in the commissioners office that something aint right with the GM of Minnesota. What about Sam Cassell AND a #1 for Marco Jaric after a KG MVP season and getting to the Western Conference finals? Drafting Brandon Roy and then dealing him for Randy Foye? KG to Boston? And now this? Now, I love Kevin Love, after all I’m a UCLA guy, but Love for Mayo? Wow! Leaf fans can take solace knowing that even though Isiah is no longer in New York there is still one franchise out there way more messed up then their beloved home team. Here’s an interesting question: who wins a championship first: the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Toronto Maple Leafs?

VINCE CARTER

How do you like them apples? Be sure to say “knee-how” to Yi for me. Let me know what the view is like from the cellar of the Eastern Conference. Karma, sweet karma.

BRYAN COLANGELO

Kudos to you big man! Kudos to you! I know I have been pretty harsh in my assessment of your reign up until this point, but you did it. Right or wrong, for better or for worse, you went in to this offseason like a fighter in a championship fight who was losing the fight entering the 10th round…you came out swinging… and with the mentality of “either I’m going to knock this guy out, or get knocked out trying.” You told Garbo to take his ball and go home for being such a jack ass for the last 18 months and while that contract could have helped us (maybe?) in a trade, I gotta say, I like the fact that you were decisive and sent a message that no one was going to push you around (it makes me wonder how he would have handled the Alonzo Mourning debacle from a couple of years ago).

Your trade for JO has left nothing up to the judges - there will be no one going to the scorecard. Either it will be an enormous success or a complete disaster. Whether you like the trade or not (and as you know, I love it) you gotta admire the moxy, and you gotta respect that kind of bravado. This IS the Bryan Colangelo that everyone told us we would be getting when he came here as GM, but we just never had the chance to see it before with his signings of AP, and Garbo, and trading for for guys like Rasho and Humphries. Now the REAL Slim Shady has finally stood up.

CHRIS BOSH

Sorry I wrote that whole “trade you now” article. I still think you rock. (I’m writing this just in case the NBA ever gives me a press pass and I’m forced to come face to face with the big man- although FYI CB4 I’m the guy who bought you a beer a couple months back at JoMamas on King street, just for being you - even though you make $13 million a year and I make $10.50 and hour).

So, Rapsfans, we have seen a fairly eventful last 7 days, and that smell that is in the air is…hope. Now, lets just hope that what follows on July 1st is more of the stuff that brought us JO and less of the stuff that brought us Fred Jones.

As always, Standing in the key, I’m the Dr., I’ve got my feet planted, and I’m planning on taking a charge.

Phdsteve.

Technorati Tags: 2008 Free Agency, Alonzo Mourning, Anthony Parker, Brandon Roy, Bryan Colangelo, Chris Bosh, Chris Duhon, Chris Robert-Douglas, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Fred Jones, Gerald Wallace, Jermaine O’Neal, Jianlin Yi, Joe Smith, Jorge Garbajosa, Jose Calderon, Kevin Garnett, Kevin Love, Kevin McHale, Kris Humphries, Maceo Baston, Marco Jaric, Mickael Pietrus, Nathan Jawai, OJ Mayo, PJ Brown, Randy Foye, Rasho Nesterovic, Robert Horry, Roko Ukic, Sam Cassel, Vince Carter

Scenario 1:
Send TJ to Charlotte for Gerald Wallace.

Scenario 2:
Send TJ, Rasho, Baston and a draft pick to Indiana for Jermaine O’Neal and a pick (worse then the one we sent them).

I’m not going to get into a debate on who’s the better player here, they both fill a void the Raptors have. I’m strictly looking at this from the perspective of a team, trying to fill multiple gaps with limited resources:

• salary cap
• expiring contracts
• draft picks
• balls to make a trade
• an Italian assistant GM who is better suited to tailoring custom suits

Apparently, the sticking point was Charlotte’s un-willingness to include a 2nd round pick. I mean, I understand, I know if I were BC I would be massively coveting Kyle Weaver from Washington St. The guy is a 6′2 combo guard who as DraftExpress says: “still has a long way to go and a lot of convincing to do concerning his ability to compete at the professional level.” Sound like anyone you know? So this trade was scuttled because we couldn’t get another Joey Graham to keep the bench warm for Bosh.

I wont go into how Scenario 1 solves one of our problems while only costing 1 of the assets we had (instead of 4). Also, I wont go into how Wallace is a younger player, who has a history with injuries, but isn’t as big a risk financially. Finally, I wont go into how if we kept Garbo, you could have packaged him with any of Rasho, Graham, Baston, Bargnani, pick to land a little guy from Jersey called Jefferson. You may have heard of him, he stole that lob pass from Calderon during that playoff year where everyone was hailing BC as the next coming of Jerry West.

Hindsight is 20/20, but the objectives this offseason were clear. Armed with about $22mil of expiring contracts, a malcontent pg with all the talent in the world, the 17th pick, and the mid-level, you should be able to land yourself two or three players to fill your needs. All of them, with a pretty full roster.

As it stands now, there are 9??? people under contract for next year, all we have left to attract anyone is the mid-level, joey graham, future draft picks, and the dance pack. Can’t trade Parker, can’t let Delfino walk, probably have to sign Brezec to wave towels from the end of the bench, and Kapono probably starts because O’Neal can clean up his defensive diarrhea.

My mind can’t help but to wander, bare with me here:

• Swap Ford for Wallace
• Draft Hibbert at 17
• Send Parker, Rasho and future first round pick(s) to Jersey for Richard Jefferson. If that didn’t take, then Bargnani, Rasho and a future first round pick(s) for Luke Walton’s gay lover.
• Throw the mid-level at Kurt Thomas and hope he bites.

All that pretty much costs the same as getting O’Neal and trying to get someone for the mid-level then adding league minimum players to round out the bench.

And if you missed it, this is what others would do if they were BC this summer.

Anyways, the reason this article was written…

Right now, the Raptors are an arguably better then .500 team. Not sure how much better, but a few games at the least (46 wins?). The problem is that this current roster is as about good as the Boston Celtics after they got Allen, but before they got Garnett. The wing is still suspect. There are a lot of good unrestricted free agents out there that would love the full mid-level:

• Mickael Pietrus
• Matt Barnes
• Bonzi Wells
• James Posey
• Bostjan Nachbar
• Maurice Evans
• Keyon Dooling
• Roger Mason Jr (a bit of a reach I know, but he can shoot the lights out)

I’m sure there are a ton of Euro’s the front office is jerking off over, so please, keep the momentum going and grab a couple of guys that aren’t soft, can create their own offensive opportunities, can defend, and aren’t pansies…

Technorati Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, Bonzi Wells, Bostjan Nachbar, Boston Celtics, Bryan Colangelo, Carlos Delfino, Charlotte Bobcats, Gerald Wallace, James Posey, Jermaine O’Neal, Jerry West, Joey Graham, Jorge Garbajosa, Jose Calderon, Kevin Garnett, Keyone Dooling, Kyle Weaver, Luke Walton, Maceo Baston, Matt Barnes, Maurice Evans, Mickael Pietrus, Primoz Brezec, Rasho Nesterovic, Ray Allen, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason Jr, Roy Hibbert, TJ Ford

One thing we can agree on is that we are all excited for the draft, which is less than a week a way.  So, lets take a closer look at what the Raps might do.

Chad Ford just wrote a very interesting piece on how to look at draft prospects by tiers. check it out.

According to Ford. the tiers look something like this:

Tier 1

Michael Beasley
Derrick Rose

Note: There seems to be a clear preference for Beasley on talent and for Rose on position. In other words, most of the folks I spoke with think Beasley is the more talented of the two but believe Rose’s combination of size and athleticism at his position makes him the better choice.

Tier 2

Jerryd Bayless
O.J. Mayo

Note: Virtually every team I spoke with has Mayo and Bayless as the No. 3 and No. 4 picks in the draft, regardless of team need. A few teams argued that Mayo should be in Tier 1, but for now, I left him in Tier 2.

Tier 3

Joe Alexander
D.J. Augustin
Danilo Gallinari
Eric Gordon
Brook Lopez
Kevin Love
Anthony Randolph
Russell Westbrook

Note: Unlike last year, it is very difficult to get a consensus for this tier. Every team I spoke with has Randolph and Westbrook in this tier. Gallinari was almost a unanimous pick. And there was some debate about Augustin and Alexander, but enough of a consensus to put them here instead of Tier 4.

Tier 4

Darrell Arthur
Donte Greene
DeAndre Jordan
Kosta Koufos
Brandon Rush

Note: There was a lot of debate about Jordan and Greene. A few teams have them in Tier 5. Koufos is gaining momentum at the moment and, along with Rush, has worked himself into this group.

Tier 5

Alexis Ajinca
Nicolas Batum
Mario Chalmers
Roy Hibbert
J.J. Hickson
Serge Ibaka
Courtney Lee
Robin Lopez
JaVale McGee
Marreese Speights
Ante Tomic

Note: This is what I call the upside group — a group of young, athletic, inexperienced players who have big upsides but significant risks. A few teams have Ajinca and Lopez in Tier 4.

Tier 6

Ryan Anderson
Chris Douglas-Roberts
Jamont Gordon
Nathan Jawai
Jason Thompson
Bill Walker
D.J. White

Note: If you do the math, there are 35 players on the list. Why 35 guys for 30 slots? In Tier 6, I included every player a team has told me is in its top 30. I suspect that, had I polled every team, this number would have expanded to about 40.

==================

The Raps most pressing needs are:

A slashing shooting guard

A big who can rebound

A defensive minded player

If we were to apply this theory to the Raps, the we know for sure that CDR is not coming to Toronto if they pick at #17. Actually, if they keep their pick, then they would be drafting from Ford’s teir 5 which includes the following players:

Alexis Ajinca
Nicolas Batum
Mario Chalmers
Roy Hibbert
J.J. Hickson
Serge Ibaka
Courtney Lee
Robin Lopez
JaVale McGee
Marreese Speights
Ante Tomic

According to this system and internet reports of draft workouts, then you would have to assume that the Raps would be drafting: (unless someone from tier 3 or 4 was still on the board)

Courtney Lee or Nicholas Batum if you see shooting guard as their most pressing need

or Robin Lopez or Roy Hibbert if you see a big as their most pressing need.

-Tomic and Ibaka are a few years away from coming to the NBA

-Ajinca has worked out well but is more of a spread 4 than a real 5 in the NBA and doesnt really have the size to be a dominant rebounder

-Hickson, McGee, and Chalmers a) dont really fit the needs of the team and b) are a little low on the talent side to take a chance on them

-Speights has huge upside and good be a good pick at 17 but I dont think he’ll be around.  Eventhough there are some issues about his work ethic and personality- with his talent, I still expect him to go in the lottery.

-From what Ive been reading about Courtney Lee, he might be the Rodney Stuckey of this years draft: an excellent player, smart, efficient, great both defensively and offensively, a four year college player with real talent who because he went to a small school isnt getting all the press of a similar player with a similar skill set (ie. Brandon Rush and Kansas).  Havent seen him play but sounds intriguing.  Time to visit you-tube and watch some film!

As always, standing in the key, Im the dr, I’ve got my feet planted and Im planning on taking a charge.

phdsteve

Technorati Tags: Alexis Ajinca, Ante Tomic, Anthony Randolph, Bill Walker, Brandon Rush, Brook Lopez, Chris Douglas Roberts, Courtney Lee, Danilo Gallinari, Darrell Arthur, DeAndre Jordan, Derrick Rose, DJ Augustin, DJ White, Donte Greene, Eric Gordon, Jamont Gordon, Jason Thompson, JaVale McGee, Jerryd Bayless, JJ Hickson, Joe Alexander, Kevin Love, Kosta Koufos, Mario Chalmers, Marreese Speights, Michael Beasley, Nathan Jawai, Nicolas Batum, OJ Mayo, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Russell Westbrook, Ryan Anderson, Serge Ibaka