Each and every Monday we check in on the past weeks games and look forward to the next 7 days in Raptors land.
Ironically, even though the Raps went 1-2 in the last week, lost Jose Calderon to injury, and media buzz already started speculating on how long before Sam Mitchell gets fired, it was a good week for the Raps.
For starters, they took Boston to the limit. Yes they lost, and yes Paul Pierce went off on them in the 4th quarter but come on, look at this from an objective perspective:
- They came withing 2 minutes of beating Boston in Boston. For the record, Denver is the only team to beat Boston in Boston this season and last season Boston was 13-1 at home in the playoffs and 35-6 during the regular season. They just don’t loose at home.
- Yes Paul Pierce took over that game in the 4th quarter, but that’s what Paul Pierce does.
- and JO finally started showing signs of his promise.
So a its not the loss to Boston that stings- since most observers had to admit that there was little chance of winning this game before it happened. And, fighting with the champs and taking them to the brink is actually an achievement for this young team.
What hurt this week was the loss to Philly. However, again, lets look at this from an objective position:
- Philly came into the game a horrendous 2-5 and with pre-season expectations predicting that Philly would challenge for the #3 seed in the east, you knew that sooner or later that they would wake up and start playing up to their potential. And even though Toronto was coming off the emotional let-down of their collapse in Boston, AND lost their starting point guard for more than half the game and had to rely on Solomon and Ukic (and even try AP at the point) they still had a chance to win this game against another STRONG team.
After all, Philly shot over 50% from the field and the 3 point line and still only won because the Raps were 5-21 from behind the arc (21%).
- In fact it was the horrendous play of AP and Moon (who were 5-24) that resulted in Sam Mitchell playing Andrea Bargnani at the small forward. Andrea not only had another monster game (continually attacking the basket instead of settling for low percentage jumpers) but he also may have shown Toronto fans the answer to 3 of their biggest problems :1) who will play small forward (2) how do we get Jamario Moon out of the starting lineup and replace him with someone who can shoot and (3) how do we keep Kapono out of the starting lineup by replacing him with someone who can play D. So, although the first experiment of Il Mago at the 3 in last years playoffs was a disaster (for the record, I argued for the idea- even though it backfired then), this loss in Philly may turn out to be a HUGE turning point in the Raps season.
So Miami rolled into town on Sunday, with many Raps fans wondering if the Raps after starting 3-0 would fall under .500 and without Calderon be heading for a season of disaster. Luckily for Raps fans, Dwayne Wade has yet to figure out that he has teammates and took over 30 FG attempts. I know D-wade is a great player but he is such a ball hog. FYI- Marion looks very disinterested in Miami and they are really not using him properly. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him moved out before the new year. The Raps countered the D-Wade show with a starting lineup that used Bosh, O’Neal, and Il Mago- and after they combined for 64 points, 5 blocks, and 28 rebounds against Philly, the really BIG 3 combined for 50 points, 4 blocks, and 29 rebounds against Miami. Also, in playing Bargnani at the 3, it made Mitchell change his rotation and now, the first big off the bench was Kris Humphries who has been missing in action so far this season. Now, regular readers will know that I am a big fan of Humph and was happy to see him get his 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 14 points, in just 16 minutes of action. This is precisely the bench power the raps need. Also, moving Moon and Kapono to the bench made them more effective and limited the other teams ability to exploit each of their weaknesses. Lastly, when Bargnani is in the starting lineup it means less touches for AP, which is a good thing for the Raps. He is a steady shooter but should NEVER get 16 shots in a game as he did against Philly.
So, now there is optimism again in Raptorland as the Raps head out on a mini road trip to Orlando and Miami before heading home to take on NJ and Boston. What will come of this week is really difficult to predict since the health of Calderon is up in the air. If Jose is back and playing at a good pace, then the Raps should expect nothing less of themselves then a 3-1 week- taking 1 of 2 on the road and protecting home court in two heavily contested games (since whenever Vince Carter returns to the ACC it is always a dog fight- and since the Raps should be looking to avenge their loss to Boston). After all, JO is really starting to hit his stride, Bosh is playing out of this world, Bargnani looks more like the blue chip prospect he was tagged to be, and the bench with Moon, Kapono, Solomon, and Humprhies all getting regular minutes is much stronger than as previously constructed.
The problem is that if Calderon cant go, or if he plays at less than 75% then this team needs Solomon and Ukic to play almost perfect basketball to compete. After all, in the win against Miami, Solomon had 4 turnovers but he also had 11 assists and shot 5-9 from the field. The Raps could very easily go 0-4 this week BUT the bigger picture for Raps fans to look at is this:
at the end of the next 7 days you should really have a good idea about:
- if the starting lineup of Bosh, O’Neal, and Bargnani can actually work
- if the Raps will have to look outside of their own organization for a starting small forward or if they have the answer
- if JO is indeed back and playing at his pre injury all start level
- if Calderon will in fact be healthy or need “more time” to heal
- if Sam Mitchel will still be here by Christmas
- if the Raps can really hang with the Celtics or if last week was merely a fluke
- If Humphries will finally start seeing some regular playing time again
In a perfect world, the Raps would find themselves at 9-4 or 8-5 come next Monday but even if they find themselves at 5-8 dont go jumping off a bride or building a bomb. Instead remember that this team is going to be fighting to win 45+ games this year and what is more important is that they work out the kinks in November so that come May they can actually compete in a first round series.
As always, standing in the key, Im the Dr, Ive got my feet planted and Im planning on taking a charge.
phdsteve
Technorati Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Denver Nuggets, Dwayne Wade, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Jermaine O’Neal, Jose Calderon, Kris Humphries, Miami Heat, New Jersey Nets, Orlando Magic, Paul Pierce, Philadelphia 76ers, Roko Ukic, Sam Mitchell, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Will Solomon
November 17th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I would love people to try and sit in Sam’s seat for a minute. We lose our starting All-star point guard, and his back up steps in and goes off for 15 and 11. What else could they ask for? Andrea is asked to play the 3 spot and scores 12. how many games has Jamario started and NOT scored 12 points from the 3? The NBA is about in-game adjustments and that has been the greatest weakness that Sam has shown over the years and every team in the league knows it. Starting Bargs in the SF position will create more headaches for the other teams in this league than it will rotating Humps in the front line or having Jose sit for a week. This team still has too much talent to flounder for long. Watch as JO and CB4 start going off on every front court in the East. Had anyone stopped Paul Pierce and Tayshaun Prince, those two games would be w’s and not l’s. Let’s see team face our 3 towers and have to out score our guards by 30 or 40 every night to keep up!
November 17th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
this very well couldve been one of the best coached games in Sam Mitchell’s tenure. he mixes things up by throwing bargnani in at the 3, which puts moon on the bench(where he should be). Miami couldnt handle the 3 bigs, especially when Bargnani was going to the basket.
one other move that Mitchell made was giving hump some minutes. About freaking time! all this guy does is hussle and knock down open shots. he isnt the most skilled PF but brings the energy that the second unit needs. Mitcheel still could only use hump for 3 minutes or a DNP just cause that’s what he does…stupid play the guy!
Solomon was great…a little hesitant at first, but recognized who was hot and got them the ball. that’s all you need a pg to do. Roko looked good too in limited minutes.
if the raps want to be successful over 82 games then they need to get production like this off their bench.
November 17th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Those will be four very interesting games this week. Two tough games against Orlando and Boston. Then two easier games against Miami and NJ.
I find Orlando the most interesting game because they’re a possible first round matchup.
The Bargnani at small forward issue seems the biggest one at hand. I don’t think he’ll work out at the position …. but I don’t mind Sam Mitchell experimenting with it. Find out where it works and where not, then he can use it in the future as a flexible lineup geared to cause the opposition problems. Also because the answer will have a huge bearing on Andrea’s future and his Raptors future because Bosh is at his natural position, and the differences between the SF-C are massive, so it’d be great for him to have a clear understanding of what position he needs to play.
One problem with the small forward experimenting this weak is the teams the Raptors will face. Miami we already have a good idea of what he can do. Then NJ, they have one of the worst forward combinations in the league so that’s unlikely to give much information. So there’s 50% of the schedule that is unlikely to give much in the way of concrete answers. Then you look at the other two with two excellent small forwards (Pierce+Hedo), so those matchups will be very difficult for Bargnani to succeed against. It would be nice to get some different looks at small forward, guys like Richard Jefferson to John Salmons.
November 17th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
smitch responded. i agree that putting bargnani at 3 was a good move, but only against a team like miami. like dave says, pierce and hedu will rape him (much like what hedu did last year in the playoffs).
solomon really helped things out for smitch yesterday. i don’t expect he can maintain that quality of play for extended periods, but thankfully jc is day-to-day.
hump finally got some burn, and responded in kind. i’m confident he can produce at something similar to that consistently.