Raps This Week

Steve Gennaro aka phdsteve

Every Monday we take a look at the last 7 days in Raptorsland action and look ahead at the upcoming schedule to forecast what to expect.

In this week’s edition of Raps This Week we start at the end of the 2007-2008 season and then take into consideration the offseason and preseason to forecast what Raptors fans can expect from their home team in 2008-2009.

2008-2009

Toronto Raptors

NO. NAME POS AGE HT WT COLLEGE 2008 - 2009 SALARY

The Starting Five

8 Jose Calderon PG 27 6-3 210 $7,438,018

After a breakout season in 2008 that saw Jose Calderon go from “steady back-up” to “almost All Star,” big things are expected in Raptorland for the Spanish guard entering his 4th year. Brian Colangelo wasted no time and money to ensure this offseason that Calderon was made the #1 point guard in Toronto. TJ Ford was dealt to Indiana, and Jose was resigned to a lucrative 5 year deal. Last season, Calderon was the most efficient guard in the league, averaging a stellar 8.3 assists to 1.5 turnovers per game, in addition to 11 points, 1 steal and 3 rebounds a game (and playing just 30 minutes a night)! Calderon’s 52% shooting from the field and 43% from behind the arc last season really punished teams for going under the screen in the high pick and roll with Chris Bosh. If Calderon can simply maintain that production with his increased minutes (he can expect an additional 6-8 minutes a night) then not only will the Raptors find themselves in contention for a top 4 seed in the East but Jose may also find himself at the All Star Game in February. The danger here is that with the additional work load, Jose will tire and without TJ Ford’s reckless abandon and scoring ability as a foil to Jose’s more traditional point guard style, Jose will be unable to repeat the performance of his breakout/contract year last season.

18 Anthony Parker SG 33 6-6 215 Bradley $4,550,000

Over the last two seasons, Raptors fans have been treated to the illusion of Anthony Parker. In his first season with the Raps, Parker gained a reputation around the league for being a tough defender, a smart basketball player, and an excellent spot up shooter with great range from behind the arc. Word on the street was that the 2-time Euroleague MVP had grown up at Maccabi Tel Aviv and was ready to make the most of his second chance in the NBA. Then last season, Anthony Parker disappeared? Some games, he would light up the opposition for 16 to 18 points with a masterful mix of dunks, 3 pointers and 15 foot jumpers. Then, for a week at a time, he would shoot less than 20% from the field. When AP doesn’t score, this team really has difficulty winning. No where was this more obvious then in the playoffs, when Anthony Parker might as well have been wearing an Orlando Jersey- since he was not only useless on the offensive end, but also allowed Boguns and Orlando’s other perimeter players to light up the Raptors with uncontested 3 after uncontested 3 in some of the most embarrassing Raptors’ losses in team history. Now, here’s the illusion: AP’s stats in 2006-2007 are almost IDENTICAL to his stats in 2007-2008 in every category: FG%, FT%, 3PT%, Pts, ASSTs, RBs, and Steals. Here’s the point: with AP, what you see is what you get: 10 points a night on 40% shooting. Steady, but not much more.

33 Jamario Moon SF 28 6-8 205 $711,517

After several years of toiling in the basketball minor leagues, Jamario Moon burst onto the NBA scene last year, earning a starting role on the Toronto Raptors. What’s even more amazing is that even though the entire universe outside of Sam Mitchell’s office seems to agree that Moon should not start, night after night, Jamario’s name gets called over the PA system at the Air Canada Centre. Although Moon has “quick hands” on defense and can guard opposing wing players with some real panache, its his offense that is a real set back for the Raps. Opposing teams know that there is very little chance of Moon trying to take them off the dribble, even though he has excellent speed and super human hops. Instead, Moon prefers to settle for long jumpers and 3 pointers, even in the face of a 3pt average that barely hits 30%. With O’Neal and Bosh commanding significant attention in the paint, it is vital that the wing players for Toronto hit the “open jumper” with consistency to punish opposing defenses for cheating with a double team down low. Calderon and AP can be counted on, but Moon, until he gives up the long jumper and hits the mid range with some consistency- and attacks the basket more- has to be viewed as a liability on this team. It is the lack of a reliable wing player that separates Toronto from the top tier teams of the East (BOS, DET, CLEV).

4 Chris Bosh PF 24 6-10 230 Georgia Tech $14,410,581

There isn’t much to say about Chris Bosh that is new or unknown to Raps fans. Simply put, Bosh is not only a top 5 power forward in the NBA, but arguably a top 5 player- period. Even without Jermaine O’Neal’s addition, CB4 could be counted on to average 20-10 this season. For Chris, this is a season of question marks, such as: can he and JO co-exist? So far, the preseason has NOT been a glowing endorsement, as both players have struggled when they are on the court together and look a little bit uncomfortable sharing the low paint. But, one thing can be said for Bosh, he is one of the most unselfish and dedicated players in the league- he has happily taken a back seat in his career to less team oriented players like Vince Carter and Antonio Davis- and you can bet that in very little time CB4 will have made the necessary adjustments. The bigger question for Chris is simply this: can he stay healthy? After playing all summer with Team USA, and with a history of foot problems, Raptors fans must be weary about Bosh’s long term health- especially with no real centre on the Raptors bench- and the very real possibility that Bosh will spend some significant time at the 5 this year if Sam Mitchell decides to play small- or if JO finds himself injured.

6 Jermaine O’Neal PF 30 6-11 260 $21,372,000

Plain and simple: Jermaine O’Neal claims to be 100% healthy. If you believe him, then you can expect at the very minimum 15pts, 10 rbs, and 2+ blocks a night. You can expect him to provide leadership and toughness in the low post that this team has not seen since the early years of Charles Oakley. O’Neal will compensate for the defensive shortcomings of wing players like Kapono at the same time as making it almost impossible for teams to double Chris Bosh in the low post. A 50 win season and top 3 seed in the East are real possibilities. However, if you don’t believe him, then you can expect him to play roughly 30 games, look great in some and mediocre in others, and without any real backup to cover his minutes, you will find this team struggling to make the playoffs and more likely than not, in the lottery next year. You decide.

The Rotation

7 Andrea Bargnani C 22 7-0 250 $5,176,440

He looks bigger, stronger, angrier, and more determined than he has ever looked before in North America. Sure, there are you tube videos of his play in Italy, where he looks like a potential superstar, but since his arrival to the NBA, there has only ever been one 8 minute span where Andrea Bargnani looked like a #1 draft pick and il mago he was touted as. In the first 8 minutes of game six against NJ in the 2007 playoffs, Andrea looked like the real deal- but since that point, no one really knows what happened. But this preseason has been a very encouraging sign for Raptors fans. Yes, Andrea has often put up 14-18 points a game BUT what really should have Raptors fans excited is HOW he is scoring his points: Andrea is scoring his points as a garbage man and not as a magician. Andrea is scoring with his back to the basket, posting up players, taking bigger men off the dribble, tipping in rebounds, and stepping in from behind the arc to take the higher percentage 2 pointer instead of jacking up 3s! Yes Raptors fans, IF (and this is a big IF) Andrea continues to play like a 7 footer, then not only will he be a valuable 6th man on a contending team, but he will force defenders to guard him “up close,” allowing him to use his excellent first step and ball handling skills to blow past big, bulky defenders (which in turn will open up space for him to shoot uncontested jumpers).

24 Jason Kapono SF 27 6-8 215 UCLA $5,784,480

If Sam Mitchell decided to use Kapono, he could really be a valuable asset. Putting aside his career 3point % numbers or his back to back victories at the 3 point contest at the all star break and just focusing in on Kapono’s ability to shoot the ball from anywhere on the court, Kapono has a career field goal percentage of 45%. With a backcourt of Calderon and AP and Kapono on the wings, it would be virtually impossible for teams to double down low against Bosh and JO. It does seem strange that a guy who shoots over 45% in his career from the floor and from behind the arc cant get more burn on a team that likes to “jack up” shots?

43 Kris Humphries PF 23 6-9 235 Minnesota $3,200,000

Although Humprhies will never be a starter in this league, on a team like this one, Kris Humphries can bring energy and grit for 10-12 minutes a night. How can you not love this guy’s energy? After all, he averaged 6 points and 4 rebounds a night last season in 13 minutes a game. However, as the “energy guy” Humphries is at the mercy of the success and failures of the other players. This means that since Bargnani is the first big off the bench, Humphries will find his minutes only on nights when il mago falters or when the team as a whole needs a kick in the butt.

1 Roko Ukic PG/SG 24 6-5 183 $1,250,000

By default, Roko will get minutes. As a long, lanky guard, Ukic has the body type to be a solid NBA defender- and he has shown in the preseason the ability to shoot from long range with some consistency. The real question for Roko and his conversion from the Euro game to the NBA is can he see the whole floor and run the offense efficiently while Jose gets 6-8 minutes a night of rest? History has shown, even with guys like Jose Calderon that the transition to the NBA takes some time. As a result, Raptors fans should not expect big things from Ukic this season. Instead, if Ukic can play turnover free basketball on a nightly basis at the same time as making open jumpers from the top of the key to keep defenses honest, then the decision to trade TJ Ford will turnout to be a good one, regardless of what Jermaine O’Neal brings to the team. However, if Ukic fumbles, or if Calderon gets injured, then the Brian Colangelo “genius” will once again come under question. Ukic may be a serviceable NBA backup, or even a potential starter- but that has yet to be determined.

Other Bodies on the Bench

3 Hassan Adams SF 24 6-4 220 Arizona $711,517

Adams has the reputation for being a sound defender with little offensive ability. Although he was a solid NCAA player his NBA career has been unsuccessful and has seen him bounce around the league without the ability to “stick.” Adams will get some minutes early in the season as Sam Mitchell searches for a reliable rotation, but by mid season, Adams will most likely find himself out of the rotation and often sitting in the press box.

5 Will Solomon PG 30 6-1 185 Clemson $711,517

Solomon’s wing span and tenacity suggest that at the very least, there should be some minutes available each night at either the SG or PG position. Two things that Solomon has going in his favour are that he plays both guard positions, where the Raptors have very little depth and that at 30 years of age, he is not wet behind the ears- and as we know, Mitchell prefers to play guys who have basketball experience. Add to that the “hunger” of a guy getting his last chance in the NBA and the Raptors history of taking Euroleague players and turning them into steady NBA players- and what you find is a player likely to find himself in the regular rotation by Christmas- and with some solid play- may even find himself as the first back court player off the bench. Again, don’t expect big things from Solomon, but you may find in Solomon, a steady NBA back up.

21 Nathan Jawai PF 22 6-10 280 $442,114

The jury is out on Jawai, but what would one expect from a second round draft pick from Australia with less than 5 years of basketball experience. Jawai can expect even less playing time than Yogi Stewart in the playoffs- and other than occasional towel waving and garbage time minutes; don’t expect to hear much from or about Jawai in 2008-09.

14 Joey Graham SF 26 6-7 225 Oklahoma State $2,449,184

He is an enigma, tied up in a riddle, and wrapped up in a mystery. Is this the year that Joey Graham finally gets it and plays like the top prospect who can shoot, rebound, and defend like his talent has suggested since he was drafted 3 years ago? If so, Raptors fans can begin planning the parade route right now. However, more likely than not, Joey Graham will get spot minutes throughout the season. On some nights he’ll play inspired ball and help the Raptors win games. On other nights, he will appear lost and helpless as opposing players score at will against his whimper of defense. Raptors can expect more of the same old nothing coming this year from Joey Graham.

Overall prediction: 52-30, 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 4th seed in the East.

(thanks to ESPN.com for players statistics and salaries)

Technorati Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, Antonio Davis, Bryan Colangelo, Charles Oakley, Chris Bosh, Hassan Adams, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Jermaine O’Neal, Joey Graham, Jose Calderon, Keith Boguns, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai, Roko Ukic, Sam Mitchell, TJ Ford, Vince Carter, Will Solomon