It seems that the Raptors season, again, hinges on one Andrea Bargnani. De ja vu as I remember saying this exact thing last season when the Raptors were “deeper” but had no clear # 2. This year, they have their second 20 point scorer, no controversy at the point - but the bench is thin.
I don’t care what anyone says, but Humphries is not a viable backup forward (8-10 player) on a team that has 50 win aspirations. I don’t care what anyone says, Moon/Graham are not starters in this league, full stop. I don’t care what anyone says, but Moon/Graham are not viable backup fours on any team in the league. Seriously, to even suggest it exposes your love for the kool-aid.
Who I have no read on is Bargnani, the man could come out where he left off from his rookie campaign, and start to live up tot he # 1 overall billing, or he can settle into a middle-of-the-pack baller with all the talent in the world, but no mental game to bring it all together.
Looking back at the last 10 #1 picks, 5 of them were absolute studs (Howard, James, Ming, Brand, Duncan), 2 were outright dud’s (Brown, Olowokandi), 1 had injury problem problems or he would have been a champ (Martin), one has been far from a bust but was a solid pick and is putting together a solid career (Bogut), and the latest one of them is still an unknown asset heading into his 3rd season (Bargani).
2006 Andrea Bargnani
2005 Andrew Bogut
2004 Dwight Howard
2003 Lebron James
2002 Yao Ming
2001 Kwame Brown
2000 Kenyon Martin
1999 Elton Brand
1998 Michael Olowokandi
1997 Tim Duncan
The failed Bargnani experimen problem with Bargnani started with him being picked # 1 overall. He is a natural power forward with shooting range (in the mold of Nowitzki), but was selected by the Raps who already have an all-star 4 (Bosh). At the time, the Raptors had other glaring needs:
- A starting shooting guard
- A starting small forward
- A starting center
After the draft dust settled, the glaring needs weren’t filled, and we were left with the Italian version of Nowitzki: an interesting prospect, but one that required the stars to align for the fruits to be realized. I may have brushed aside the fanboys claims that big men have a longer learning curve, or that Nowitzki took years to become who he was during his rookie campaign, but not after what I witnessed last season.
Many claimed that Bargnani NEEDED time to adjust to the NBA/North American style of play. To that, I say bullocks! IF you take someone with the # 1 overall pick, that person MUST be able to hit the ground running, as in, they get drafted, go through summer league/training camp, play a couple regular season games, and BOOM…tangible results. Anything less, and you made the wrong decision.
Myth 1: Big men have a longer learning curve:
From the above list of # 1 over picks, 4 of them were power forwards: Andrea Bargnani, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand and Tim Duncan. Each of them came into the league with much more fanfare and much higher expectations then Bargnani, and each of them hit the ground running:
Andrea Bargnani
Elton Brand
Kenyon Martin
Tim Duncan
Some folk don’t put too much stalk in stats, as they only tell one side of the story, but these stats speak loudly to me taken as they are. Duncan and Brand were studs, 20/10 guys out of the gates. Martin improved between his rookie and sophomore campaign’s. Bargnani regressed…it is clear. The reasons are many: he played out of position, he has no mentor (Bynum has Kareem, Howard has Ewing, Yao had Ewing), he is being used incorrectly, he eats too much pasta, whatever.
Even when compared to Aldridge, who was taken 2nd overall, and who plays the same position (albeit he is more of an inside-out player, then an outside-in), Bargnani hasn’t stacked up from a development perspective:
Lamarcus Aldridge
Myth 2: Nowitzki took years to develop:
Just a laughable notion. If by years, they mean 1 year, and by 1 year they mean he got better significantly from his rookie to sophomore campaign and got even better after then that, then yes; he took a year to go from average to good, then a year to go from to great and stay there. Otherwise, the guy pretty much hit the ground running:
Dirk Nowitzki
Maybe the ‘Nowitzki development myth’ was grounded in the fact that he played in Dallas when they were garbage before Nash brought the spotlight with him. One luxury that Nowitzki did have was having Nelson as a coach. I can’t even put a value on what that did for the guy. Smitch isn’t the kind of coach to foster/mentor a Bargnani type player.
Season 3:
With O’Neal and Bosh locking down the 4/5, Bargnani is left gathering the leftover minutes up front, while holding down the 3 spot. The Raptors braintrust has alluded to 2 of Bosh/Bargnani/O’Neal being on the court at all times of a game, while all 3 see a significant portion of the court at the same time.
In theory, it is interesting, I wont lie. Practically speaking, that leaves Bargnani manning the 3, which is far from an ideal position to put the kid in. It can be argued that O’Neal and Bosh can protect the almost certain penetration that Bargnani will allow. But how much pressure do we want to put on those two? They already have to help with penetration from the backcourt, and when Kapono is on the floor (Moon not so much, but he isn’t the best lock down defender either).
What it all comes down to is coaching and mentoring, which he might get during summer/training camp, but will be non-existent during the regular season.
Can we expect more of the same from Bargnani? I think so. Is there hope for the guy? Sure, there is hope. Will we see a surge in production? Maybe, but I don’t know, no one really does, and that is the unfortunate part of this. After picking him over other better players, and spending millions of dollars in training, salary, lost opportunities, the Raptors still don’t know what they have in the guy, and from this view, they don’t know what to do with him.
Thanks to Arsenalist for the gem of the picture of Bargnani working hard at playing video games.
Technorati Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, Bryan Colangelo, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Elton Brand, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Jermaine O’Neal, Joey Graham, Kenyon Martin, Kris Humphries, Kwame Brown, LaMarcus Aldridge, Lebron James, Maurizio Gherardini, Michael Olowokandi, Sam Mitchell, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming
August 26th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Fascinating article, been days since I’ve had some Bargnani bashing. So really, Bargnani isn’t as good as Duncan? Good point! Thankfully you did compare him to Aldrige, which is more appropriate. I’ve often wondered how we’d look if we took Aldrige and kept CV. That would have made an impressive front line. But the point is that it was a weak draft year.
I still don’t know that taking Bargs was such a clear cut failure. BC tried to trade down, but the #1 pick wasn’t worth that much because there was no clear cut #1. It would be interesting to compare Aldrige to other #2 picks. But comparing Bargs to Duncan, Howard, Yao isn’t really fair, as you admit when you say his problem was being drafted #1, thus raising everyone’s expectations. Could have been worse, imagine if we took Ammo!
Unlike other #1’s, Bargs is new to the C position and spent the year last year learning it. None of the other studs you mentioned were learning new positions, Duncan even still refuses to be a Center. I think Bargs did improve his post defence last year and is in a much better position to develop this year, as a back up for Bo’Neal.
I agree with you about not being too hot on Bargs at the 3. However, if he is at SF we could play a little zone and suddenly we are protecting the net pretty well. Bargs is probably a better shot blocker than Bosh, and O’Neal definitely is, so that is a fairly intimidating line up around the net. It will have to be because I don’t know if we have any smalls that can keep their man in front of them.
I am taking a wait and see approach to next season, although Bargs will be important I don’t think he is the key to our season, even as much as he was last year. Yes, Bargs could have been handled better by Smitch and the coaching staff, had a Ewing-type come in or something. But apparently Bargs has been working out with JO in Las Vegas and been to a couple of big man camps too. So we should see improvement, not Duncan, Yao or Howard, but Bargs is his own player. None of those guys can hit 3’s or play 3 positions. I don’t know if Bargs will ever be as good as Dirk, but neither will any of the Bigs taken in his draft year.
I’d take exception to Moon not being a viable NBA back up too, but then you’d get to throw out the over used kool-aid comment again. Last year’s pre-season was full of high expectations, too high. We were coming off a good year and I remember some people suggesting that Bargs had a higher ceiling than Bosh even. After a disappointing season last year, I think a lot of fans are setting their expectations too low. The JO trade has been talked to death because it is pretty much the only Raps transaction of the off season, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t enough to radically improve this team. Let the actual games begin before we keep smearing last years disappointment into next year’s hopes.
August 26th, 2008 at 9:31 am
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khandors last blog post..What becomes of the broken-hearted?
August 26th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
robert: i wasn’t comparing bargnani to duncan, but rather the production that you should be getting out of the # 1 overall pick. i understand i wasn’t very clear, so apologize about that.
i agree he improved his post defense, he looked really good for stretches. hopefully he can maintain that for 30+ minutes.
my issue with how was he used last season was exactly that he was being used as a C and not a PF. hard to make that adjustment while you are also adjusting your game to the nba (bad coaching).
playing zone is viable for very long stretchs of a game. it is nice to throw out there for short bursts. so even if they throw a zone defense, what happens when for the majority of the game he is getting beaten off the dribble by quicker/more athletic 3s?
also, i said that moon isn’t a viable backup 4, not a viable backup nba player. he clearly belongs in the nba, just not as a starter, or a backup power forward.
as far as fans setting their expectations low…i think getting o’neal has actually raised expectations for a large majority of fans. the JO deal has improved certain aspects of this team (toughness, second scorer, low post presence), but it has also depleted depth. radically improved may not be the right term to describe it.
August 27th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
bargs will be great on offence but the thing that worries me is d, what are we gonna do against lebron??? bargs wont stand a chance and i think he will be in foul trouble for the majority of the game ONlY if he plays the 3. now i was thinking y cant cb4 play the 3 and bargs the 4. bosh is way quicker and plays good defence and bargs is a 4 any way thats what he plays so ya what do u think??
August 27th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
i kicked that idea around too champ. i landed on the notion that neither of them can really play the 3. using either at the 3 for extended periods, imho, is a horrible decision.
August 28th, 2008 at 6:15 am
It is tough for Bargs being drafted #1, but it was a weak draft. Although names like Roy, Gay and Aldrige had better years than Bargs last year, look how far Gay and Roy were drafted. BC wasn’t the only one to take a pass on them and Bargs still has time to develop. He won’t ever be Duncan but there was no Duncan to draft with the #1 pick that year - typical Raptor luck.
As far as Bargs playing out of position, well he has legit size for the position. His game is certainly not typical defensive big man stuff, but we knew that when we drafted him. Bosh is our PF and that ain’t changing, and Bargs is better suited to C than SF. What we need is a coach that can exploit that as a mismatch instead of trying to force a square peg. Ever since the pick BC has talked about playing Bargs as a ‘New Age’ center. If anything, Bargs development n the post has been beyond what has been expected - he just has to remember it was his jump shot that got him here.
Sorry for misunderstanding the Moon comment, I agree that he is no PF. And Bosh isn’t a SF either, similar to Barg, his advantage is his speed. There were times last year when putting a SF on Bosh shut him down a little. Unfortunately neither Bosh nor Bargs is the answer at SF. I like O’Neal at C Bosh at PF and Bargs backing them both up. hat puts all those players in their best roles. As for SF, let Moon and Kapono do their thing. Nobody can stop LeBron, so we should just play our game and get contributions from people in roles they will excel at. If Kapono can play the way he did in the playoffs, and Moon can bring his energy off the bench we should be okay. There may be a trade down the line (I still like Outlaw), but all we can do until then is use what we have. If we do trade to bring in a SF, that would make our current SF’s decent bait to add to a package.
I agree with your views on the zone, and think that really JO and the B’s should only all be on the floor together for a few minutes a game, otherwise just rotate them according to fouls and mismatches up front.
Finally, I agree that Raps fans are excited about the JO trade, but we are still guarding our expectations. Few people are predicting top 3 in the East, seems like top 7 is the more common sentiment. Regardless of where we actually do finish, I’d suggest that predicting a 7th seed is pretty pessimistic. We have significantly improved our weaknesses, and really only hurt our depth. But our depth ran 12 deep last year and didn’t really help us anyways. You really only need 3 off the bench and we have Bargs (last year’s starter), Moon/Kapono (Both solid wing back ups) and Ukic/Salomon. Back up PG is the only real question mark there and likely a step back from last year. That said, TJ was a terrible back up last year and this year Jose will get plenty more minutes, which should help out if he can play the way he did as a starter last year.
Sorry if I am still too much on the kool-aid, but I am trying to back up being a homer/fans with legit arguments! Although the East has improved, we might be giving too much credit. Boston has taken a serious hit on the bench and they were lucky on the injury front last year. Detroit is a year older and Dumars hasn’t really made the changes he promised. Cleveland still has Bron, and Mo is nice, but I doubt Z will have the year he had last year and who else do they have? Philly is putting a lot of faith in an undersized PF’s surgically repaired Achilles. The Magic still need a PG and can’t really expect any improvement from Howard or Hedu. Atlanta’s head office continues to prevent them from going anywhere. I actually like a lot of the young talent on NJ, Indy and the Bobcats, but they still have to show that they can win games. The Knicks? It’ll take more than one off season to undo what Isiah has done to that team. I might be standing alone, but i feel quietly confident with the Raps going into the new season.
August 28th, 2008 at 9:50 am
And while BARGS plays Video Games, JO does what? PARTEY! Go figure…”
PURE Nightclub was packed on Tuesday night as partiers from near and far filled into the mega club to hear superstar Nick Cannon on the decks as guest DJ for the night. A wave of excitement spread throughout the club as Cannon took over the turntables just after midnight, sending the already high energy levels through the roof. The dance floor kept in constant motion all night as the multitalented entertainer and husband to Mariah Carey kept temperatures high with a breathtaking blend of the hottest hits. Other famous faces who were present to partake in the festivities included former NBA great Charles Oakley, Antoine Walker of the Memphis Grizzlies, Corey Maggette of the Golden State Warriors, Tyronn Lue of the Milwaukee Bucks, Jermaine O’Neal of the Toronto Raptors, Cuttino Mobley of the Los Angeles Clippers and famed tattoo artist and founder of Starlight Tattoo, Mario Barth.”
August 28th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Chris Bosh’s best position in the NBA is Center.
He is not a prototypical Center … to be sure … but this does not negate the fact that this is the best position for him to play.
khandors last blog post..Chris Bosh’s strength … as a player and a person
August 28th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
you know what a good playter for the raps would be? Jason richardson, he attacks the basket and can shoot the 3. now i have been thinking if we trade kapono cash and maybe graham we can pick him up and with moon coming off the bench it will help out the raps
August 29th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Raptors Champ,
Put yourself in the Bobcats’ position.
Would you trade for Kapono, Graham & Cash Consideration from the Raptors while giving up (an established wing player like) Jason richardson?
[Hint: If your answer is 'Yes' ... then http://rebirthofreason.com/Store/The_Adventures_of_Jonathan_Gullible_A_Free_Market_Odyssey.shtml
Much like a high calibre joke ... a trade proposal works best if/when both parties involved are (or aren't) laughing.
[one of each ... and, unfortunately, it's back to the drawing board
]
khandors last blog post..Return On Investment
August 30th, 2008 at 1:56 am
hey if i am the president of the bobcats i would really consider it, a 2 time nba 3 point champ which would help any team espcially with a guy like okafor in the paint. to me graham has jason richdson game. he is athlitic and can shoot but not a veery good percent. but really if the raps are gonna make a run for the nba title they need another blockbuster trade and i would really consider a jamal crawford type of player. if the raps cant pick up a trade then i would really hope a free agent pops up or that BC can think of something.
BTW i completey forgot about hassan adams. This guy can play D at the wing. now i am not saying that he can gaurd kobe like a shane battier but he can match up good agaisnt a chris pual kinda gaurd.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
raptors champ,
Do you realize that the two-time NBA 3PT-shooting champ you’re referring to … has in fact averaged (all of) 1.5 3FGA per game during his 5 years in the League, thus far?
1.5!
… and, yet, he’s the center-piece of your proposed trade … in return for a player like Jason Richardson (who has averaged 18.8 PPG during his 7 years in the NBA).
khandors last blog post..Return On Investment
August 30th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
I have no idea what to expect out of Bargnani. It’s tough to estimate Bargnani’s upcoming season because it’s not refining and mastering skills which are already present but developing completely new skills, particularly on the offensive end.
I think he’s the key to the bench. The Raptors need a 6th man and Bargnani is the best equipped to provide that. If he can be that 6th man it slots other bench players into roles which suit them better. It would have a knock down effect, similar to Korver in Utah last year, the rest of the bench in their best roles. Bargnani is, the man facing all the uncertainty, the key to bench stability.
If there’s one thing I’d love to see above all else it’s Bargnani rebounding at an average level. That would make court time so much easier for him to earn. After that I’d like to see him more comfortable off the dribble and on the midpost.
Daves last blog post..Miami Sign Magloire
August 30th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
The only thing I’d like to see from Andrea Bargnani … is the return/continued development of his ‘high percentage 3PT-shooting stroke’.
Defense, Rebounding, Passing, Shot-blocking, etc. … are all skills which can be supplied by other players, and other positions, on this Raptors team … but there is NO ONE else who can supply the ability to to spread the floor WITH ONE OF THE TWO BIGS ON THE COURT the way that Bargnani can if he Picks & Pops with Calderon to the tune of, say, 45% (on his 3FGA’s).
NOBODY.
=====================
The NBA is filled with one-dimensional role players who do just one thing at a high rate of proficiency/efficiency.
Bargnani is SUPPOSED TO BE A DEADLY 3PT-SHOOTER, for a Big … and it’s high time he begins to actually perform like one, if he’s going to start earning his paycheck and make a meaningful difference for this team.
=====================
Those who read what I write and (mistakenly?) think that I present a ‘negative’ slant towards the Raptors … have no clue what they’re talking about.
IMO … the Raptors have had a GOLDEN CHANCE to become an authentic Elite Level team, in the NBA, since the day in 2003 when the No. 4 (Overall) Draft Pick fell into their lap.
And, in fact, they still do … if they actually know/knew what they are/were doing, as a pro sports franchise … intent on winning the League championship, some day in the not-too-distant future.
At one time for this franchise …
Isiah Thomas was a valuable asset.
Damon Stoudamire was a valuable asset.
Marcus Camby was a valuable asset.
Tracy McGrady was a valuable asset.
Doug Christie was a valuable asset.
Alvin Williams was a valuable asset.
Vince Carter was a valuable asset.
Antonio Davis was a valuable asset.
Lenny Wilkens was a valuable asset.
Morris Peterson was a valuable asset.
Chris Bosh is a valuable asset.
Glen Grunwald was a valuable asset.
Charlie Villanueva was a valuable asset.
Jose Calderon is a valuable asset.
Mike James was a valuable asset.
TJ Ford was a valuable asset.
Rasho Nesterovic was a valuable asset.
Anthony Parker is a valuable asset.
Jorge Garbajosa was a valuable asset.
Jason Kapono is a valuable asset.
Carlos Delfino was a valuable asset.
Jamario Moon is a valuable asset.
Jermaine O’Neal is a valuable asset.
So, too, is Andrea Bargnani …
if they begin to use him wisely.
khandors last blog post..Return On Investment
August 30th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
khandor, imho, there is no reason why bargnani can’t regain his dead-eye shooting while rebounding at an average rate (5+/game). averaging 3.8 rebounds/game for his career, is only half a rebound better then what…say…tj has averaged for his career.
unacceptable considering he has almost 2 feet on tj, and has played about the same amount of minutes.
as far as becoming a one-dimensional player, if he can do ONE thing really well, not many will complain. but his ability and size considered, it would be a waste.
August 31st, 2008 at 6:43 am
Well the dog days of summer are upon us. The only thing I see happening between now and the end of September is BC trying to trade Carlos Delfino rights for a second round pick next year. Guess he should strike while the NBA still remembers he can play.
Other then that it really looks like a slow march into training camp and even then no roster spots are open for competition.
Bargnani has always struck me as a player either
A - totally out of his element and needs time
B - not being coached to his abilities
C - has got the money and is waiting to head back to Europe
D - a combination of all the above
Should be interesting to see if he can get it together and help the team. Not a complete bust but not what one would expect froma #1 pick overall.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:52 am
Well I agree with Khandor’s content although not his tone (but so what). Bargs needs to be a gunner and I wonder if Mitchell didn’t make a serious mistake trying to force him to contribute in other aspects of the game without first ensuring his one genuine talent did not get obscured.
One other thing about Bargs that has me wondering: while some low-post presence in his game would be a welcome addition I also wonder about what I perceive as a lack of a mid-range game for him. If you look at the Boston game where he played so well (small sample and one in which he was hitting from 3-pt range), he passed well once he got going - especially from the high-post area. It seems to me that if he can consistently hit from the elbow like Bosh does, it could do as much to open things up offensively for him and the rest of the team as him establishing a power game.
September 1st, 2008 at 6:17 pm
great article Rapsfan!
just got back from a long vacation and really enjoyed the read!
While I agree with most of the comments rolling around here, I do disagree with one prominent sentiment- that what bargs does actually matters to the Raps success. I think the starting 5 for this team (which does not include Il Mago) still wins close to 50 games as is. If you get some production from him off the bench or anyone else, then this team I feel is a legit contender for both the #4 seed in the conference and a punchers chance at the East in the playoffs. Without any production from Bargnani I think this team is more likely to finish in the 5 spot with a punchers chance at the East. either way, I dont see him as the key- I think this year will start and end with JO. As we saw in the Olympics, Bosh is top 5 in the world right now and primed for a big year- now that Jo can take some of the heat and double teams away. If JO goes 15-8-2 this year, then it doesnt matter what Bargs does……….however, if BC were to have added a legit 2 or 3 this summer, like for example Pietrus (who we know is the centre of your man crush), then i would agree that it all starts and ends with Bargs- because at that point you would have to consider the Raps -with a legit wing player and some strong production from a 6th man- as a legit title contender.
FYI- as a side note- I should be back with my regular weekly columns starting Sept 8th.
peace.
September 1st, 2008 at 7:17 pm
even with a legit 2/3, they wouldn’t be a title contenter in my eyes until they addressed the coaching situation. smitch wont be manning any team that wins a title, ever.
also, i’m not sold on 50 this year, but you are right, CB4 has taken himself to top 5 in the world level, and who knows that translates with the team, and what he will be doing this season.
welcome back bro!
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Simple percentages say that there’s a fair chance at least one of O’Neal, Bosh or Calderon will sustain an injury of some sort this year and be forced to miss a significant part of the regular season schedule.
If/when this happens … this team, as is, does not have the quality depth it will take to finish with 50 wins in the Eastern Conference.
A number of teams across the League have improved their prospects for regular season success during this off-season and it is going to be a dog-fight just to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.
khandors last blog post..76ers keep adding integrated pieces
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:37 am
Yao Ming’s last name is Yao, genius.