There was a lot of discussion around my predictions for the eastern and western conference seedings for the 2008-2009 season.
Although there are still moves to be made, free agents to be signed, and even possibly trades to happen - remember Okafor, Deng, and Iggy, and Gordon are all still unsigned, and T-Mac, the pistons starting five, and even Melo are apparently on the trading block- with July almost over it seems like a good time to step back from the action (or lack of depending on where your living) and see who are the big winners or losers this summer in the off season frenzy.
Lets get one thing clear: the Lakers, Pistons, and Celtics are immune from these rankings since, they will both almost certainly win 50+ games next season and be in contention for their respective conference titles and the NBA title even with minor losses like Turiaf or Posey.
THE BIG WINNERS
1) New Orleans: although they overpaid- a team that finished one point out of the the number one seed and houses a starting lineup of CP3, Peja, Posey, West, and Chandler- looks pretty efficient…especially when you recognize how much Posey will answer 3 of this teams biggest issues in the SA series: experience, defense, and 3 point shooting.
2) Golden State: many people wont agree- but resigning Ellis, Azubuike, and Biedrins, and adding Magette, Turiaf and Randolph really improves this team. Lets face it, they had to choose between Nellie and Baron and I think they made the right choice. Add-in the Marcus Williams trade and you gotta give Chris Mullin credit…when Baron bolted I thought this team was toast and now you’ll see this team rise in my next western conference preview.
3) Philadelphia: Ivey to back up Miller is a nice touch, but it is the addition of Brand and Speights and the improvement on the interior of this team that make this a great offseason. BUT (and a big but) they have yet to replace the outside shooting of Korver (which is what is precenting this team from really competing for the East). But where they really win big this summer is that no team had tried to pry either Iggy or Williams away by signign eitehr rfa to an offer sheet. With only Memphis still having cap space- Philly is in a great negotiating position to keep 2 of its best young players in addition to adding brand! Now thats a great off season.
4) Toronto: If you could turn Rasho and a disgruntled backup point guard for a potential defenseive player of the year who could average 20-10 would you make that deal? Yeah, me too! Jermain Oneal instantly make this team a contender for the east, and being able to re-up Calderon and letting Delfino walk also makes this a great offseason. However there are still some big question marks not named Joey Graham on this team, like for example, the back up point guard.
5) New York Knicks: you tell me if you can of think of one trade this offseason that stands to make a bigger impact than Isiah and Marbury for D’antoni and Duhon? I cant think of one either.
Honorable mention: New Jersey Nets: really like how a team that was headed no where and capped out in January- was able to turn Jkidd and RJ into cap flexibility for 2010 and a core of Devon Harris, Yi, Brook Loez, CDR, and still keep a player like Carter to help sell tickets for the next 2 seasons as well as to help entice Lebron.
THE BIG LOSERS
1) Denver: no draft pick, no signings, and then a trade where they netted nothing for Camby. This team is done. Let the fire sale begin!
2) Chicago: I’ll happily go on record as stating that the Bulls have blown yet another offseason opportunity. They have yet to resign either Deng or Gordon and both are unhappy. The Ben Wallace trade in February made no sense since neither Gooden or Hughes makes this team any better. They drafted a pg on potential instead of the best player available at the #1 slot, eventhough he filled the bigger need. The added a CBA type coach, when one of the best coaches in the NBA wanted to come there AND in a summer when so may teams were looking to make moves, they failed to cash in on the potential of Thomas, Noah, Selfbosha, or even Noccioni- all of whom could have helped them bring back some assets. For the umpteenth straight year, this is a team with no direction- not committed to winning and not committed to rebuilding.
3) Dallas: No first round pick and the signings of DeSagana Diop and Gerald Green…need I say more?
4) Charlotte: Okafor is still unsigned and very unhappy. Look for him to sign a one year deal and become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Add that to the fact that Larry Brown has already *&%($ with teh head of his point guard by drafting Augustin #9 and trying to trade Raymond Felton to every team in the NBA publicly and you can see that 2008 has disaster written all over it for charlotte. Il
5) San Antonio: ? not sure what pop is thinking but it is hard to second guess this team.
5) Phoenix: Matt Barnes? Really? If the fact that Matrix and Dantoni were replaced by Shaq, the untalented Lopez twin, and Terry Porter not enough to convince you that this team is in trouble, then how about this as a sign of the times: second round pick Dragic turned down a contract to stay in Europe- I mean this is the kind of stuff that players do the Grizzlies, not the suns…ouch!
Still uncertain which category they belong in:
1) LAC- I like the addition of Camby, Gordon, and Baron- even at the expense of Brand and Maggette but how it all comes together remains to be seen.
2) Memphis- the addition of Mayo gives this team an unreal, young, athletic, backcourt - in addition to a plethora of young guards as trade bait AND about 600 million dollars in cap space. too bad no one wants to come to Memphis.
3) Milwaukee- I still don’t know how this team hasnt made the playoffs with all the talen they have. Losing Ivey hurts, and I don’t think that Joe Alexander was a good draft pick BUT Skiles will be an improvement in the coaching department and any team with RJ, Redd, and Bogut should be able to be competitive.
As always, I’m the Dr., I’m standing in the key, and I planning on taking a charge!
phdsteve
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July 29th, 2008 at 1:01 am
Great article about the offseason moves: Here is my take on Toronto’s moves and the team going into next season.
raptorize blogmaster shayne says:
July 28th, 2008
On Will Solomon: And Next season
OK I did not expect to hear that name but I checked him out on you tube (only a 2 min clip but hey it looked good) and his numbers in Europe were good. He may be better then Ukic he may not. He can score and is a COMBO guard (I hate that term because normally when your a combo guard it just means your two small to be a 2 and don’t pass and drible good enough to be a 1)
I think he could be a nice fit and player who may surprise and steal a few minutes here and there.
So it looks set:
PG Jose/Ukic/Solomon
WINGS
Parker/Kapono/Moon/Joey/Addams
BIGS
CB4/JO/AB7/The Hump/Baby Shaq
with some flexiblity as Moon and Joey can play the 4 if need be and Solmon can play some 2 if need be as well.
It’s a good team folks.
Let’s look at it like this.
Our best player is CB4 most teams in the league would take that.
Our second best player is Jermaino Oneal a 6 time allstar who has always been his team best big until now.
Third best player Jose Calderon(you could argue he should be 2nd and Oneal should be 3rd i know it’s close) Potential allstar as your 3rd best player that’s pretty good. Could be a top 10 pg this year if he’s not all ready.
4th best player Anthony Parker: you could argue he was our second best player last year, atleast in the coversation, however with the addition of Oneal and the subtraction of Ford (making Calderon that much better and more efficent with more minutes at the PG) Clearly now he becomes our fourth best player which again is pretty good.
5th-7th
Moon, Kapono and Andrea:
Make no mistake about it the season will rest on these 3 because if the top 4 stay healthy we will be good, really good but if one or 2 of these guys step up of the 3 we will be great.
These 3 all have the potential to have breakout seasons this year.
Moon- I think fans are down on him because of his poor outside shot and his unwillingness to go to the rack (as am I offcourse) but he has the potental to be a shut down 3 he already is a good defender great rebounder and his athletic ability is off the charts if he can just go to hole more he could be a solid NBA starter.
Andrea has a ton of talent just needs time, this could be this year or it could be in 2 years but he still should be much better then last year.
Kapono-We saw the good Kapono in the playoffs, if he can play like that all year he could be an awsome weapon for us this year.
8-13
Ukic/Joey G/The Hump/Addams/Baby Shaq/Solomon
Sure there are huge questions with each of these guys but as long as one of Ukic/Solomon are not horrible and one of the others can bring 10 minutes of energy minutes we should be fine here.
All and All we look good on paper and I don’t think were getting the Buzz locally or through the NBA that we deserve. This JO trade should have generated more.
Get ready Raps fans this is your best team in franchise history and in my opinion as good as any team in the East not named Boston (who I think we can beat in 7 game series by the way)
Am I Homer? Yes
Am I crazy? No
Granted there are good teams in the East, and we could be anywhere from 2-7 but that’s pretty good is it not?
I see a 2 seed and a loss to the Lakers in the Finals.
Yup I am homer, but I remember that Spurs team from back in the day with Robinson and Duncan and there supporting cast was similar to ours. They had a shooter in Mario Elie We have Kapono they had a PG in Avery Johnso who is not Jose but was effective and ran the offence correctly and then they had an aging Sean Elliot and a few other rif rafs and won a title.
Were beter then that team, we really our! however probaly 10 other teams in todays league could beat them in a 7 games series…
So what am I saying is that it is possible that this team can win the East and we have never been able to say that and it be more realistic then it is right now.
And I love it.
Go Raps
July 29th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Bucks should make the playoffs this year. with the starting line up of Williams, Redd, Jefferson, Villaneva, Bogut, plus pg Sessions lit it up in the final month of the season, which gives the 2nd unit a good pg to help Mason, Bell, and ALexander keep up the pace.
The Clippers are making some nice moves. Getting CaMby for nothing and adding Baron and Ricky Davis makes them deep. Davis, MObley, THorton, Camby and Kaman is a nice looking starting 5. Ricky, Thomas and Marcus Williams are a nice trio off the bench along with rookies DeAndre Jordan and Eric Gordon. this team should be compete for the final playoff spot this season
I dont know what the Mavs are thinking. if they dont win a title this season I think you’ll see a major Blow up in big D. everyone except Dirk will be on their way out. they need to stop signing/trading for old guys and get some young blood in there. they have 9 players on their roster born in the 70’s. Phoenix will be about the same. Matt Barnes can finish and that’s all you really need to do when Nash is your pg, but they are a lot like the Mavs…they need a title this year. San Antonio will be the same aslong as Timmy D, Parker and Pop are still around.
as for the raptors, with the additon of Solomon the roster in final. the guy has numbers like Parker, but without the MVP’s. he should fit in nice and allow Ukic to play some sg. he’s 6″1 so i dont think he’s much of a combo guard, but I imagine he’s their to do what Derrick “Crispy Cream” Martin did for Calderon, which is help him adapt to the nba game. which reminds me…bring Crispy Cream on as an assistant coach or stat guy. i like him with the organization in any capacity
July 29th, 2008 at 11:43 am
I think the wild card is the Aussie. Hope he can push the Italian for minutes and with the competition make him a better player.
The only downside is the injury bug. If they stay healthy they will contend for a playoff spot.
July 29th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Somebody please put Indiana on the winners list. TJ Ford, Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert and Jarret Jack. They shed salary, acquired good talent to complement the one that’s already there and got more athletic. With Rasho coming off the books next year they’ve even got room to make a FA signing and enough talent to make a great trade.
PS: Rush was the biggest steal in the draft
Arsenalists last blog post..What does signing Will Solomon say about the Raptors?
July 29th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
John, no offense but you must be out of your skull if you think think “the wild card is the Aussie”. Have you seen him in Summer League? The guy is nowhere close to contributing anything beside spelling somebody for 3-4 minutes because of foul trouble.
Arsenalists last blog post..What does signing Will Solomon say about the Raptors?
July 29th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Okafor re-upped for 6 years 72 million. That locks him up and completes any talk of Okafor unhappiness. As for the 76ers, solid signing today. Answered one of their needs in someone who definitely knows how to hit the long ball and has never been afraid to take it in the crunch, Kareem Rush. For what was available to them, this is a great signing, fills in one of their outside shooting needs, and complements their team perfectly.
July 29th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
the raptors wild card is still bargnani john, and after watching some really bad summer league games, the pub nathan got was not on merit, but on his size. if he gets more then 5 minutes a game, the raptors are in trouble.
i have to say i’m surprised by the biedrins and okafor contracts. they both seemed to get more then was warranted. i understand, but wow…$72 mill for okafor? $63 for biedrins? that is nuts.
July 29th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
yup, Indiana belongs on the winners list- and might be at the top of the list if they could somehow find a taker for Tinsley and Williams.
another team that probably should get on the losers list is Atlanta. Childress in Europe, and Smith apparently asking to be dealt in a sign in trade? ouch. If they hadnt won only 36 games last year, I might argue that they could be headed back to the lottery.
…totally shocked by the Okafor deal…wow! All reports up until this announcement today were about some real bad blood brewing. This does change things and should move Charlotte at least to the “unknown” list. That is a HUGE deal for CHA. It gives them stability in the middle and maintains their core.
as for Kereem Rush…when you loose your job to your younger brother who is coming out of college with a history of torn ACL- you know you are in trouble. Hardly a big signing…but I did already give Philly love- and will give them a whole lot more when they re-up their RFAs.
Shayne- Im with you, that this is the best Raps team yet. I also like your insight to how a big year from one of the many unknowns playing the 3 make this team a serious contender. I also like them to win 50 games, but I just cant see them winning more than Boston and Detroit and thats why they fall to 5 seed in my prediction.
and how about: Joey Graham for the wild card! if someone could just convince him that its like summer league out there, he might actually show up every night. BTW - I am convinced that there is actually a third graham brother (they are triplets -not twins) and he is the only one with any b-ball skills. You see, he is the one who goes out and makes the team (and then he disappears and either Joey or Stephen take his place unbeknownst to fans). Its only when one of his brothers are in real danger of losing their jobs, that he re-appears and pretends to be them for a couple of games before disappearing again….crazy? how else do you explain this enigma?
July 29th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I think the Biedrins signing was too much but Okafor was market value.
The guy will average 15 and 10, plays tough D, blocks and clogs the paint and is one of those guys with a high bball IQ. Now that he has signed it looks like the Bobcats can be taken seriously next season, for they will surely not finish 20 games behind orlando.
July 29th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
A third Graham….love it! and it explains everything.
I also hate to burst everyones bubble but the wildcard on the raps is JO.
This team goes as far as he takes them.
July 29th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Bball IQ is one of Okafor’s lowpoints… and he is inefficient offensively, cant pass (even for a big man) and puts up 14 and 11 on a bad team. Nevermind you just dont pay your 3rd best player almost max money when he’s showing more and more every day to be at a plateau as far as potential goes… Trade him and the whole Bobcat’s backcourt for Charlie V and Camby lol…
Oh and as far as this Raptors depth/scrubs talk I mostly agree with a part of me thinking BC knows best and their must be some hidden talent here. God knows everything else he touches as far as small deals and signings turn to gold.
Pro:
Parker, Garbo, Moon, Delphino, Rasho, etc
Con:
Fred Jones(kinda), Brezec(kinda), Dixon(kinda)…
July 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Of course JO is the person of the moment. When healthy and motived he will be a great addition to the team. But of course everyone is well aware of that fact. I am hoping one of the other players has a breakout year and helps the team.
July 29th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Indiana should be on the list of losers. They did nothing but make their life more difficult while also becoming worse in the same breath.
Firstly the cap flexibility is a myth. They had a better chance of adding a top talent by keeping Jermaine and letting him expire. Their cap space next year will be about $6mil after Danny Granger signs (and that’s giving them a good deal at $10mil per). The year after they have hardly any money coming off the books so they still don’t have enough to make a top signing. Now switching gears, if they’d kept Jermaine they would have been able to sign Granger and still have $16mil of cap space in two years which means they could sign a top tier free agent. Let’s see MLE or top tier free agent? Which is better?
Secondly they just lost Jermaine O Neal. While he was on the court they had a defensive efficiency that beat out the Detroit Pistons for fourth place in the NBA, without him their defensive efficiency was 20th in the league (this while he was injured for most of the season). Worse rebounding, worse scoring options, no interior game, lose their best player at drawing double teams. They went from a diversified dangerous offense to a problematic offense that’s easy to stop.
Let’s just get one thing straight - the Indiana Pacers have never had a big man as good as Jermaine O Neal in their 31 years of existence in the NBA. That’s what they’re replacing. That is no easy ask. That’s why you don’t trade bigs for smalls, because replacing that big is incredibly difficult. The Pacers could very easily see a decade go by before they see another 20-10 big man in Indiana. They just traded him and without any idea of how to replace him. Look at GSW, they haven’t had a big man capable of this since Webber’s rookie season and about as long a big man drought prior to Webber arriving also. Players like this are very hard to come by.
Then they blunder it up again with Jerryd Bayless. There was only one player in that trade with star potential and that was Bayless. Indiana are desperate for some star level talent. They can’t give away a piece that valuable for bench players.
Both their trades were ridiculous. They were the clear cut loser on both and a loser overall. The only thing that has come out of this is the countdown ….. how long until Larry Bird is fired for incompetence.
But hey we have nice guys now that sure know how to fill out their roles. Who cares if we don’t have enough talent to ever do anything meaningful?
It’s not like they even decimated the roster correctly. They added enough talent to be a 32-41 win type of ball club which ensures they don’t get any high lottery picks. No high lottery picks, no cap flexibility, no youngsters with star potential ….. see how disgraceful a situation this is?
Indiana are now in the worst possible situation in the NBA. Stuck in never-ever land. Being mediocre in the NBA is a death wish.
Daves last blog post..Interesting Wonderings On Jamal Crawford
July 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
To annoint the 2008-2009 Raptors Roster as the team’s ‘best ever’ mid-way through the summer is a gross mis-statement of fact, especially when you consider the alterations made (thus far) to some of the other squads in the Eastern Conference.
Installing Jose Calderon as the Raptors’ full-time PG will be a major plus for this year’s team but, at best, the other player moves made this summer may allow the Raptors to hold firm in the #6 spot in the EC standings.
Tier I
1 Boston
2 Detroit
3 Orlando
Tier II
4 Cleveland
5 Washington
7 Philadelphia
Tier III
Atlanta (8), Chicago, Charlotte, Indiana, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Toronto (6)
Tier IV
Miami, New York
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 29th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
IMO … if you asked Reggie Miller which player he would prefer to have as his Center should he be forced to choose between Jermaine O’Neal or, say, Rik Smits, with each operating at the peak of his career, the answer would be the ‘Big Dutchman’.
I’m not talking ’stats-wise’ … I’m just talking about which individual NBA player an All-Time Pacer stalwart like the “Stickman’ would choose (based on personal preference) as his running mate in a game of 5-on-5 (NBA Rules).
In that regard, I might even go so far as to suggest that Reggie Miller would also choose other serviceable Pacer Bigs, like Derrick McKey or Antonio Davis, over a player with the combination of positives/negatives Jermaine O’Neal brings to the table every night in the NBA.
The best Big Man in Pacers history?
Maybe; maybe not.
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 29th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
An argument that Smits and and Davis are a better interior than Jermaine+somebody is valid one. As a combination they were very strong but as individual pieces …. neither can compare to Jermaine O Neal.
Jermaine O Neal has some flaws and they do limit him but they’re nowhere near severe enough to say a serviceable role player is better than him. Just look at the difference between the Pacers with Jermaine versus with Jeff Foster (better man-to-man defender, quality help defender, one of the best rebounders in the NBA, very little scoring, solid passer, good movement off the ball).
Daves last blog post..Interesting Wonderings On Jamal Crawford
July 29th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Neither is Jeff Foster a better Center than was Smits, or McKey or A-Davis.
For example, if you took each of those other Pacer Centers, at the height of their careers, would Jermaine O’Neal (at his best) produce a superior 5-man unit than each of these other men?
Not in my book.
O’Neal is a better scorer than Derrick & Antonio but McKey & Davis were both better defenders than JO.
O’Neal is a better defender than Smits was but the Dutchman was a better Low Post scorer … any day of the week and twice on Sundays … than is JO.
In the end what tips the balance, for me, to each of these other Pacer Bigs over Jermaine was their ability to play the game at a high level without needing to be their team’s main man on offense.
If Jermaine O’Neal can succeed in this regard, beside Chris Bosh AND Andrea Bargnani, he will have proved something meaningful to me at the end of this coming season.
In general, Bigs that can contribute in a significant way to their team in the NBA without having to be a focal point of the Offense are extremely valuable.
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 29th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Jermaine is the best defender out of all of those players and by wide margin. None of those players were anywhere near the help defender that Jermaine is, and, Jermaine is close to being as good an individual post defender as Dale Davis was (the best post defender of the group).
Foster is closer to A.Davis/McKey (and even Dale Davis) than those players are to Jermaine O Neal. They were all solid starting quality players and so is Jeff Foster. Are they better than Jeff? Sure, I’m fine with that. I’d probably pick Antonio as the best of that group. Worth pointing out Jeff is by far the best rebounder on the list and a quality defender.
I don’t really consider McKey a big, more of a combo forward, I liked him best at small forward … I thought his defense was better on wings. Especially if considering him only for his Pacers career where he was their starting small forward most of his time there.
Rick Smits would be on the next level up from those players. The others are easier to replace. I also wouldn’t consider him a better post scorer than Jermaine, comparable more than different. Neither guy spent enough time on the block for my liking. Smits is a far superior jump shooter though. Smits is closer to Ilgauskas than Jermaine O Neal.
Jermaine can function as a key player on a team without being the go-to option. He just hasn’t had a player of superior scoring ability next to him since becoming a 20ppg scorer. When he first arrived in Indiana he had two players who were superior scorers and he had no problem giving way to them. Instead he concentrated on defense and rebounding while providing some complementary scorer. It’s not fair saying a guy can’t play next to other scorers when he doesn’t have the scorers.
Sometimes you have guards who dominate the ball and clearly would have difficulty, Jermaine isn’t that type of player. Very rare for a big to be able to dominate the ball like that. The only ones who can are perimeter orientated players. Other than that you have black hole players which Jermaine isn’t. He may not be a great passer but he’s not an unwilling passer either.
Daves last blog post..Interesting Wonderings On Jamal Crawford
July 29th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Dave, I respect your opinion cause you do seem to have a solid grasp on the Pacers’ player personnel over the years.
That said, we will have to agree to disagree about where exactly Jermaine and Jeff Foster rank amongst that group and what those players individual strengths and weaknesses were/are.
BTW, when I spoke of Derrick being a better ‘defender’ than Jermaine it was precisely because of his ability to step out on the perimeter and provide the type of individual D a top team needs from the Bigs on its roster, exclusive of Dominating Power Men like Shaq and Hakeem (etc.). I, too, would also place D-McKey as a 4/3, rather than as a 4/5, during his time with Indiana. (Still included him as Big though for the purpose of evaluation).
Please do not get the impression that I do not think Jermaine O’Neal has been a solid Big Man for the Pacers during his tenure there. Not in the least.
It’s just that he has always seemed to me to be mis-cast as their goto offensive player when he isn’t really that good as a scorer … EXCEPT WHEN HE IS BEING FORCE-FED THE BALL IN THE MID-POST, IN A HALF-COURT OFFENSE, similar to Chris Bosh.
=============================
FWIW … at his absolute best, I would take Rick Smits to pair with Reggie Miller, and get a couple of bruisers to play beside them, over any of the other players mentioned thus far. IMO, Smits and Big Z are, in fact, very comparable players.
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 29th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Looks like the Rockets just added Ron Artest for Bobby Jackson, 1st round pick, Donte Greene. Does this change everyone’s Western rankings?
________________________________________________________________
“It’s just that he has always seemed to me to be mis-cast as their goto offensive player when he isn’t really that good as a scorer … EXCEPT WHEN HE IS BEING FORCE-FED THE BALL IN THE MID-POST, IN A HALF-COURT OFFENSE, similar to Chris Bosh.”
I agree with you on the first part and disagree on the second part.
I don’t think Jermaine should be the go-to scorer on a contender either. I think he can be the second option or third option. His decision making and shot selection is too suspect and unreliable for the biggest stage (also makes him inefficient).
But I disagree on the slow half court part. That killed Jermaine. Rick Carlisle was breaking his back by implementing that type of offense. Jermaine was best under Zeke when he was allowed to get out and run, and allowed to set up on the block on secondary breaks - quick post up in first 4-5 seconds of the shot clock while most of the opposition defense is back but not setup allowing the post player to get low position. Jermaine used to get a lot of easy shots like this but when Carlisle brought in his new offense they all vanished.
Jermaine complained about Carlisle’s offense at the time and he was right, it limited him and his teammates. He was always working against a set defense, two-three defenders, and he was taking a lot of punishment physically in the post. It was a huge reason why his FG% dropped even more and why he started to settle for even more low percentage shots out of the post. Carlisle’s offense took his flaws (they already existed but to a lower extent) and made them worse.
On the bright side for Carlisle, his half court feed Jermaine over and over post offense worked well overall. I don’t think it was their best offense but it was a good one. They won 61 games and were one of the frontrunners for the title. If the brawl/suspensions/injuries/old age (Reggie) didn’t disrupt the club they could have won a title. They were able to be this dominant because Jermaine was a willing passer out of the post and was able to create shots and space for his teammates.
I was delighted when Obie took over and implemented his new offense. It suited Jermaine very well. Unfortunately Jermaine was clearly rushing back to early from injury (like Gilbert did, same injury) and we ended up never really getting to see the value he could have had there. He had one good month of basketball and in that month he looked really promising in that offense.
Daves last blog post..Rockets Acquire Ron Artest
July 29th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
…… scrolling back up to that quick half court type offense off of secondary breaks …..
I think this might be of interest. We’ve all heard the Duncan/Robinson comparisons and how Sam Mitchell will need to make a big man duo like that work.
Well …That’s what the Spurs used with Duncan/Robinson. The Spurs were actually a mediocre half court team at the time. Their half court offense were too predictable and easy to flummox. Where they got their greatest joy was on secondary breaks. They didn’t have enough finishers to be an out-and-out fastbreak team but on that secondary break they were deadly.
(explanation of half court problems) - The reason their halfcourt offense was mediocre was because they had no perimeter player that could break down the defense so if a shot didn’t come out of the post they ended up with lots of low percentage shots limiting their offense. It was also easy for a defense to create that low percentage shot. You pressure the ball and try to deny the post entry pass until the 10-14 second mark, then you double on the dribble and force the ball out. If you’ve managed to hold it to the 10 second mark, the kickout from the post is normally delivered at 6-7 seconds which makes a re-post difficult because it leaves the big man with only one option - to shoot the ball. If they re-post and the player is double again, the post player has to take a doubly contested shot. If he gives it up there’s barely enough time to squeeze off a shot and that shot is also easy to contest. This puts pressure on your perimeter players to create a shot from themselves or others by penetrating. Avery was the best at it but he was still barely a 10ppg scorer. This happened with regularity and is why the Spurs weren’t a dominant halfcourt offense. They were limited by a halfcourt offense. the Spurs also didn’t have enough ball or player movement, it was just post play because they didn’t have scorers elsewhere. The opposition were also able to slow the initial pass down because the Spurs guards weren’t able to punish them well enough for overzealous pressure defense, they weren’t good enough scorers, so the opposition could deny that pass and force a later entry pass to the post.
Anyway, back to secondary breaks
When the Spurs were playing well, their best ball, they were scoring out of those secondary breaks. It was where Duncan and Robinson were their most dominant. Firstly they were able to get low position easier because the defense wasn’t set up. Deeper position made it easier for them to get an easy baskets. Also because the defense wasn’t set up, the perimeter players were scrambling which created more space and opportunities for their lesser perimeter scoring talents to take advantage of. So getting that initial shot was easier.
Now if that initial shot didn’t come in it left the Spurs still in a superior position. The first pass into Duncan/Robinson would happen at the 4-6 second mark. They have good position inside and the defense is scrambling. Because of the time left on the shot clock the Spurs were able to work the ball in and out of the post 3-4 times with relative ease against a scrambling defense. It’s a lot harder to stop Duncan 3-4 times a possession than it is 1-2 when the clock isn’t in his favour. This meant they always had more ball movement because there were more opportunities for passing and the defense was still partially off balance from the early post up, so the team had a better chance to score. So even if the initial shot wasn’t there they were still able to create an easy shot.
When the Spurs slowed down the ball and went solely into the halfcourt they got themselves in trouble.
The Spurs did this very well one year and did it poorly for the next 3 years. That one year was ‘99 when they won that title and had that tremendous run over the last few months of the season and playoffs. In one of those three years it wasn’t so bad because Derek Anderson joined the club. He gave them that perimeter scorer/creator to balance their halfcourt offense, they played some beautiful stuff that season. Then they waited until the Lakers collapsed and Duncan put on one of the most impressive playoff performances of recent times.
Unfortunately this is lost in the media shuffle but that’s how the Spurs played their best basketball.
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Interestingly nowadays the Spurs are more able to play in the halfcourt. Parker and Manu give them two very creative scorers and playmakers.
Oberto also creates far superior ball and player movement because of his intelligence, excellent movement off the ball, and his passing skills (for my money best passing center in the league). So instead of that stagnant post dominated halfcourt offense the Spurs had with Duncan/Robinson, they now have lovely ball and player movement.
Spurs are also far better in a primary fastbreak because of Manu/Parker. That secondary break isn’t used as much anymore because they don’t go to Duncan as much as they used to.
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Anyway that’s how the Spurs used Duncan and Robinson and how they played their best basketball with them. Similar principles should be used for Jermaine O Neal and for those wondering how Mitchell should use Bosh/Jermaine, there’s several lessons here from the Spurs.
Daves last blog post..Rockets Acquire Ron Artest
July 29th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Dave,
As I’ve said already … respect your POV, even if I happen to disagree with some of the individual points you’ve raised, thus far, re: Jermaine O’Neal. Overall, from what limited information I’ve seen, IMO, your perspective on the game is sound.
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As well, would agree that JO’s best days were when he was used in the way you’ve described above under the direction of the much-maligned Isiah Lord Thomas III.
As Jermaine has aged he has been forced out of his natural comfort zone, which is as you’ve described, from an offensive perespective … and it’s taken it’s toll on his body, physically … and, unfortunately, it’s rare that a player like O’Neal is ever able to regain his health completely after being injured the number of times he has been recently, playing the spot the does in the NBA.
Would like nothing better than to see him succeed in a big way for the Raptors, as he’s one of the good guys in the League today (similar to CB4).
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Solid insight to the Spurs success, as well … breaking down their tendencies within the different segments of the 24-second shot clock.
As David Robinson aged, IMO, it actually hurt their team overall moving him off the block more and more, in favour of TD, who was in fact a far superior low post scorer, in a traditional sense. While many NBA observers believed (mistakenly) that ‘the Admiral’ did his best work while playing out of the 4-spot (15-18 feet away from the hoop) this was not where his mis-matches were found most frequently, i.e. which in fact were much like Chris Bosh’s, closer to the block vs smaller/less agile Bigs (playing as a traditional 5).
Can it work with Bosh & O’Neal?
IMO, yes it can … with Bosh at 5 (2nd Big in Offensive transition) and O’Neal primarily at 4 (1st Big in O-trans).
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Fact is … I really like the Raptors first 8-9 players in their rotation, if they are used properly … e.g. a principal line-up of Calderon, Moon Kapono, O’Neal & Bosh; supported by Parker, Graham & Bargnani (or Humphries).
It’s the lack of quality (mis-matchable) depth at the #10-13 spots on their roster, the likelihood of injury to O’Neal, and the constant mis-use of certain players which are major problems with this current team.
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 30th, 2008 at 10:28 am
khandor, I gotta thank you because I never thought Id see the day when Dave would argue for JO!
July 30th, 2008 at 10:35 am
and yes, the artest trade does affect the western rankings- but gotta wait a few more days before comment becuase the trade only makes sense if they turn aruond and deal either Battier or McGrady for a front line point guard and some bench depth. Otherwise, where will Ron-Ron play? (and BTW you dont bring either Battier or McGrady off the bench). I mean Rafer could be an excellent back-up, but he cant be your starter. If this team now makes a McGrady to Detroit for Billups & parts (as has been speculateed so many times on SI.com or ESPN.com) then you have starting 5 of Yao, Scola, Artest, Battier, and Billups. I think that would be the best starting 5 in baskeball. Even as they are constructed,right now, with Yao, Scola, Artest, McGrady, and Rafer- (with Battier as a 6th man) they are pretty darn good.
Now how good does that Sasha signing in LA look….exactly. Lakers need to do more to be the #1 seed next year.
this is 3 years in a row that Houston has made an exceptional trade in the offseason.
1st- they dealt the rights to rudy gay for Battier (no doubt that Gay is awesome with huge upside, but guys like battier dont grow on trees)
2nd- they got Scola from SA from nothing
and now 3rd- they get artest for Bobby Jacson and some picks- wow!
great deal all around, and I suspect that Ill be drinking some Houstonm Koolaid come my next rankings- espceially since YAo is back, healthy and looking good in the olympic warmups.
July 30th, 2008 at 11:17 am
phdsteve,
This first line-up:
PG - Billups
OG - Artest/Battier
SF - Battier/Artest
PF - Scola
C - Yao
isn’t significantly better than this second one:
PG - Bobby Jackson
OG - T-Mac
SF - Battier
PF - Scola/Hayes/Landry
C - Yao
And neither of the first two has any chance at all vs this third one:
PG - Kobe
OG - Odom
SF - Ariza
PF - Pau Gasol
C - Andrew Bynum
Respect your perspective, in general, though and the way you express your hoops’ related ideas.
The Artest of today is a ball-stopper … and nowhere near the same dude he was several years ago in Chicago and initially in Indiana.
Keep On Truck’n
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 30th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
yeah, true about him being a ball hog- but its the “other” that makes him so dangerous. Doubling Yao or Tmac becomes so much more dangerous with another legit scoring option (after all Ron Ron did average 20pts a game last year) added to 3 point shoooters like Barry who they also signed. In addition, he gives them some real toughness- in that “you dont mess with us” kind of way that has really plagued Houston in their many 1st round exits. and dont forget, when either yao or tmac goes down with injury (which always happens) Ron will get all the touches he can handle. I dont really see any way that this doesnt propel Houston to the front of the line, since they now have a legit big 3- in the same way that Boston last summer immediately jumped to the front of the line in the East over Detroit, even though the Pistons had not lost any players and had been to 5 straight conference finals.
And no disrespect to Kobe- who is better than anybody on Houston, but after that- Houston is better at every position:
Yao is better than Bynum (today, tomorrow, and forever)
Battier is better than Ariza (any day of the week and twice on Sunday) both offensively and defensively.
Artest is better than Odom
Rafer is a better PG than Kobe (not a betterplayer- but a better pg)
and even if you argue that Kobe is the 2 guard- Tmac is not Kobe but you’re not giving up a lot there. Kobe is better- but not by much.
The only contest is Scola vs Gasol and while I give Gasol the edge at the 4- its not by a significant amount AND if Houston plays Ron at the 4, like Ive been reading- the Id take Yao and Artest over Bynum and Gasol.
and Scola or Battier (whomevers position Ron takes) is better as a 6th man than any of the garbage Lakers fans keep trying to tell me makes up their “deep bench”
I’ll put up a new western conference preview in a few days- but until then, you’ll have to do a better job convincing me that anyone other than Houston deserves to be the favorite to win the west now.
July 30th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
oh ya, and I dint even mention Landry!
July 30th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
phdsteve,
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re: And no disrespect to Kobe- who is better than anybody on Houston, but after that- Houston is better at every position:
Yao is better than Bynum (today, tomorrow, and forever)
Battier is better than Ariza (any day of the week and twice on Sunday) both offensively and defensively.
Artest is better than Odom
Rafer is a better PG than Kobe (not a betterplayer- but a better pg)
and even if you argue that Kobe is the 2 guard- Tmac is not Kobe but you’re not giving up a lot there. Kobe is better- but not by much.
The only contest is Scola vs Gasol and while I give Gasol the edge at the 4- its not by a significant amount AND if Houston plays Ron at the 4, like Ive been reading- the Id take Yao and Artest over Bynum and Gasol.
and Scola or Battier (whomevers position Ron takes) is better as a 6th man than any of the garbage Lakers fans keep trying to tell me makes up their “deep bench”
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When making those assessments you’re allowing each of those player’s reps to influence your judgment regarding their worth to their respective teams and how they contribute to the system in use with their team.
Yao is not a better player than Bynum.
Scola is not a better player than Gasol.
Artest is not a better player than Odom.
Battier (has been better to this point in his career but in future …) is not (going to be) a better player than Ariza.
And, KOBE is a significantly BETTER than T-Mac.
(not to mention the advantage the Lakers have with Dr. Phil vs Adelman)
Do not get me wrong … I think this Rockets team is very talented.
They are just not better than the Lakers … with a healthy Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza, etc., plus Phil & the Triangle.
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 30th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
PS. Ron Artest is NOT Dennis Rodman. One is (now) a ball-stopper. The other is, quite possible, the greatest role player (rebounder/defender/non-scoring-facilitator/energy-guy) in NBA history. Phil Jackson knows the difference.
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 30th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
your crazy- no really.
Yao has averaged 20-10-2 each of the last 5 seasons. Bynum averaged 13-10 for 35 games.
its you, and not me my friend that is judging based on reputation.
I wont even bother to argue the rest.
Ill just say this one more time for all the Lakers lovers out there- BYNUM is not the best centre in the west, the east, or the NBA. He’s not top 3 and he’s not top 5.
potential yes, but if you asked any GM or coach to choose Bynum or Yao, you’re mad with power if you think anyone (includign phil jackson or mitch kupchik) would pick bynum.
yao is the best 7 footer in the world. period.
seriously.
July 30th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
phdsteve,
I will bet $1000 real life dollars if you go and ask Phil Jackson to choose right now between Yao Ming and Andrew Bynum as the Center for his team …
If he chooses Yao … I will pay $1000 (Cdn).
If he chooses Bynum … You will pay me $1000 (Cdn).
Deal or no deal?
khandors last blog post..The Art and Science of Hoops
July 30th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
phdsteve,
Are you game to participate in this informal survey over the next week?
No $$$ involved … and, perhaps, no definitive conclusions, as well.
Just a little bit of fun during the off-season.
Hope you are.
If so, please help spread the word to others you respect.
Thanks.
khandors last blog post..Yao Ming or Andrew Bynum … You make the call
July 30th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
oops … forgot to include the link.
Here you go …
http://khandorssportsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/30/yao-ming-or-andrew-bynum-you-make-the-call/
khandors last blog post..Yao Ming or Andrew Bynum … You make the call
July 30th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Houston now with Ron-Ron has to be top 3 if not #1 i the west now. This team just solidified their problem of scoring AND added a defensive stopper to the 2nd best defense in the league. They have stacked 3 great core players like boston and now are poised to make a serious run.
McGrady will finally make it out of the first round!
July 30th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Haha, Steve, I like Jermaine. I just think the trade is largely irrelevant without the necessary follow up moves. It hasn’t changed the Raptors very much although it easily could with a few upgrades on the perimeter.
As for Yao and Bynum. Yao is the better player today but he won’t have that title for long, Bynum will be better than him and likely in a year or two. Also add that Yao can suffer between being an imposing defensive presence and a defensive liability based on who he’s playing - struggles perimeter orientated or quick bigs - which means his value can waver. In a head-to-head matchup against LA, Bynum likely won’t be able to hurt Yao’s defensive weaknesses. Injuries are a factor against Yao but I’m willing to give him another year at least to stay away from those.
As for the best centers in the league - Duncan, Dwight, Yao. Oden and Bynum are my next two, then Kaman. Then the Tyson Chandlers (plus Memo) of the world. I still consider Jermaine a more natural power forward than center, but if considering him as a center I’d probably plop him either behind or ahead of Kaman dependent on his success there next season.
The guy I’d love to see play center is Dirk Nowitzki, it’s time for him to switch over and play like Bob McAdoo. Dallas won’t win with their big lineup and they’re not likely to get a talented center before Dirk’s prime ends, he needs to the make this move.
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As for Houston. Before Artest - Best defensive team in the West and second best in the league. Best rebounding team in the league. Two out and out go-to scorers, an inside-out tandem. Quality supporting cast. Lacks third scorer.
Add a player like Artest to that and you should have a full blown contender. There’s potential problems (khandor is right about Ronnie being a ball stopper) there but I’m not sure they’re guaranteed to occur so I’ll only consider those problems a possibility. I think Houston is more likely to get derailed by injuries than Ronnie making a show of himself on the court.
Daves last blog post..Bulls Keep Deng
July 30th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Oh my views on Houston’s title chances really depend on how they use Artest. Whether he starts as power forward, or Battier comes off the bench or Artest comes off the bench. They are three very different types of teams and I’d especially have to wait and see about Ronnie as a PF.
If Ronnie playing PF that means Scola and Landry are on the bench. They’re Houston’s two best at snaring rebounds. Without them Houston will lose their best rebounding team in basketball title, which is a huge advantage for them. Ronnie was consistently outrebounded as a power forward in Sacramento (11-7 according to opposing PER) and power forwards scored on him easily (56% FG% according to opposing PER). So their defense could change too. I really have no idea how successful Ronnie could be as a power forward next to Yao.
My first choice is for Ronnie to come off the bench but his ego won’t take that so Battier will likely have to be sixth man.
Daves last blog post..Bulls Keep Deng
July 30th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Hey khandor,
I checked out your on-line vote-in (see links below) and it looks pretty good. So far there is some really nice commentary on both sides.
As for the $1000.00, even if I had the money, I couldnt win that bet since Phil Jackson by league rules couldnt say he likes Yao better or he’d be fined for tampering.
July 30th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
phdsteve,
Thanks for dropping by … and know that you are welcome any time.
You are definitely allowed to vote … afterall, you’re ‘Tha Man’ that started the ball rolling.
khandors last blog post..Yao Ming or Andrew Bynum … You make the call
July 30th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Hey Khandor,
while Im sure there is some kind of law against on-line bloggers betting thousands of dollars- but I do have a friendly wager for you (since I assume you enjoy a good bet every now and then)and really, who doesnt?
why dont you and I go and check out a Raps game in April- and if come April 1, Bynum has better stats (pts, reb, blocks, per) than Yao, I’ll buy. On the flip side- if Yao is having the better year, you pick up the tab.
what do you think?
July 30th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
phdsteve,
Sincere thanks for the offer …
… but I am not a believer in individual statistics being a valid measurement for determining an individual player’s true value, either as a solo artist or as a member of his team, in general.
Still, it is true that I do enjoy a wager (friendly and otherwise) now and then … so, if we agree to put our collective thinking caps on I’m almost sure we can come up with something which works for both of us.
[e.g. Could be something as simple as whichever side loses the unscientific poll I'm conducting on my blog agrees to buy the other a t-shirt from the NBA's web site and have it mailed to the winner ... or, whichever team wins the NBA championship first, between Houston and the Lakers, the winner gets to write a guest column on the loser's blog about the subject of his choice, unedited by the loser ... etc. ... the possibilities are almost endless. :-)]
khandors last blog post..Yao Ming or Andrew Bynum … You make the call
July 31st, 2008 at 12:32 am
steve, looks like west preview 2.0 should be coming out soon, no?
i like the second wager suggestion khandor!
July 31st, 2008 at 8:10 am
alright, cool, Im down with that. Whoever wins more this year- Houston or LA- (you can pick- regular season or playoffs) and loser writes a guest column on the others blog.
and yes, west preview 2.0 should be out later this evening.
July 31st, 2008 at 9:51 am
phdsteve,
re: alright, cool, Im down with that. Whoever wins more this year- Houston or LA- (you can pick- regular season or playoffs) and loser writes a guest column on the others blog.
This would actually be a 3rd Option, based exclusively on the outcome of the 2008-2009 season.
I might be willing to go for this, as a compromise, if need be … but my preference, at this point, would still be Option 2, as suggested by me (initially) and seconded by Raps Fan, i.e. whichever team is THE FIRST TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP is declared the winner, whenever this occurs (next season or anytime thereafter). Should any other team win the title, it would be a moot point and the wager would simply carryover, i.e. ‘Skins Game’ style.
Instead of “… whoever wins ‘more’ next year …”, with ‘more’ being undefined, Option 2 is precisely defined.
[in addition, if you'd like, we could also say something along these lines: "Given that Yao Ming or Andrew Bynum, respectively, averages a minimum of 20 minutes per game played in the NBA Finals when their team Wins the championship." In this way, there would then be a clear means of evaluating their role on their championship-winning team.]
khandors last blog post..Yao Ming or Andrew Bynum … You make the call