Now that the other shoe has dropped and team like GS and Lac who had lots of cap space have started to blink- its time to take a quick peek at the Western Conference. AND given how much people had to say about my first preview of the Eastern Conference, I’m interested to see what people think about how the west will play out.
Just like the Eastern preview, remember- that what you read below is sure to change and is only barring injury. Every year at least one team gets hit “hard” by the injury bug AND even the best teams in the NBA can end up in the lottery if their superstar spends any significant time on the shelf.
If we use the same criteria as the Eastern preview, in terms of 3 teirs, the West shakes down a little bit more top-heavy than the East. But much like the East, there are a lot of teams in the second teir who are not really a championship contender as they are currently constructed.
Teir 1 - the Cream of the Crop:
- These are teams who are a lock to win 50 games + and contend -not only for the West- but for the NBA title as well.
- In the Western Conference, , now while there are only two teams in the East (Boston and Detroit) who fit this criteria, at the present moment, the West houses 4 legitimate title contenders: NO, LAL, UTAH, and SA
Teir 2 - Good but not Great
- These are teams who would be a lock to make the playoffs in the East, but by being in the West, their record that will fall somewhere between .500 basketball and 55 wins makes them susceptible to ending up in the lottery. In the Western Conference, one could argue that as many almost half the conference fits this category and ultimately some teams in the West who are this good will miss the playoffs. At least 2 and as many as 4 wont make the playoffs.
- These are teams who are “one guy away” from being in teir one: HOU, DAL, PHEO, DEN, GS, LAC, POR, SACTO
Teir 3 - Decent but not Good
- These are teams who are in the process of turning things around and on the way up probably not good enough to play .500 basketball and are a few years away from real contention in the West: MINN, MEM, OAK
TO RECAP- here are the seeds:
1 - Utah Jazz
In the West, there are a lot of teams you could argue belong in the #1 slot, but my money is on Utah. For starters, the combo of Williams and Boozer is the best PG/PF combo in basketball, and when surrounded by Okur, Korver, Brewer, and the underachieving but still valuable Kirilenko, and a coach who has made the playoffs just about every season since 1982! And you realize how deadly this team can be. They have one of the best coaches in basketball, one of the deepest benches in basketball, they are consistently one the best home teams in basketball, and are often the most physical teams in basketball (in that they go to the FT line more than any team, year in and year out). When you combine all this together with back to back 50 win seasons and back to back deep playoff runs and you have the makings of a powerhouse team about to arrive on the scene. Adding Korver last year at the deadline made them sooo much better, and how do you bet against a team that has both the brewer and the boozer working together? 60 wins is a reality.
2 - New Orleans Hornets
If you took the above paragraph and replaced the names above with: CPaul, DWest, Chandler, Stojackavic, and Byron Scott and you have the New Orleans Hornets. Im not sure Ive ever seen a season like CP3s last year, and he is only getting better. And while last year was their first trip to the post season, they gave SA all they could handle. The addition of Posey is really going to help this team. I think the full mid level for 4 years is a lot to pay, but I think it is that signing that ultimately puts them in the market for a 60 win season and moves them into the number 2 seed in the West over top of:
3 - Los Angeles Lakers
Any team that has Kobe on it and the Zen master as its coach is legit. Adding Gasol was amazing and having Bynum back should really make this team the best team in the West but I cant put money on a 19 year old centre with 33 games of NBA experience. AND the way they went out in the finals, the way they got PUNKED, I just cant get that out of my head. My fear is that they are going to overreact to that loss and deal Odom, who I think is more important to their system than most fans recognize. This team was not only too soft, it really lacked depth on the bench- losing Turiaf and pretty boy V due to cap reasons aint going to help. I love the Lakers and my heart wants to pick them as the #1 seed but when you look at how good 1-9, or even 1-10 that Utah or NO is and the fact that they won 56 and 54 games last year (the lakers won 57) its hard to argue for LA.
4 - San Antonio Spurs
They are just as boring to talk about as they are to watch, but all they do is win. Is there anybody better than Tim Duncan? 55 wins and the #4 seed is a bit of a disappointment in San Antonio and even without any real additions, its just how they roll.
5 -Houston Rockets
Here is a really strange scenario. Here you have a team with 2 real superstars in Yao and TMac, a fundamentally sound 4 in Scola, one of the most underrated wing men in Battier, and a great coach in Adelman. Every year I pick this team to finish top 3 and every year they disappoint. This time, however, Im not falling for their Jedi mind tricks. They still have no legit point guard- and every raps fan is with me on this one- Alston can not lead a legitimate championship contender. And while I had said that all teams get a clean bill of health for this preview, I find it hard to believe that Yao, after all the pressure on him this summer in the Olympics, and coming off a season ending injury, is going to have what it takes to keep the engine of this team moving. Add to that all the rumours around Tmac, who is already the most ADD player in the NBA, and while I think they’ll still win 50 games due to talent, I think its those little things that put them in the second teir. I also don’t anticipate another 22 game win streak.
6 - Phoenix Suns
I really don’t like this team. I don’t like its hire for coach, I still don’t like the trading of Marion, and more than anything else- I hate how they have done nothing to address their issues of needing a back-up point guard and a wing player to compliment Hill. But, Amare is just sooo insanely good and Nash, Shaq, Bell, Diaw, and Barbosa are too good to not win a minimum of 48 games and that I think puts that no lower than the 6 seed.
7 - Portland Trailblazers
Here comes the jump- from on the bubble to real playoff team. Even with the loss of Jones and the trading away of spare parts, this team continues to draft insanely talented players and stockpile prospects galore. Forgetting for a moment any moves the Blazers have made in the last 3 months and just simply adding Oden and Fernandez (and maybe even Kopponen) to this roster makes this team for real. FYI- love the coach. When they finally do decide to trade a bunch of their parts for a legit point guard to pair in the backcourt with Roy, this team will win 55 games and move up into teir one.
8 - Los Angeles Clippers
I really like the deal for Camby and the signing of Davis. And while this team would have been better if Brand had stayed or if they got something in a sign and trade for Magette, a starting line-up of Davis and Eric Grodon in the back court and a frontcourt of Thorton, Camby, and Kaman is pretty damn good and should be good enough to make the playoffs. Plus, unlike anyone else in the league, they STILL have cap space to make more moves.
The bad news: under these predictions, teams like Dallas, Golden State, Denver and Sacramento all miss the playoffs (since somebody in the West who wins 45+ games ultimately will).
Quickly, here’s my thoughts for why they miss the playoffs:
DAL - too old too quick. Im not sure they can recover from the JKidd trade and the Josh Howard debacle just by hiring Carlisle. And while he is a great coach, isn’t he just like Avery? Controlling, Demanding, half-court oriented? Dirk is awesome, but the rest of this team is garbage- and they have no bench. Its time to blow it up.
DEN - Why trade Camby for a 2nd round pick if you truly believe you are a contender? Kmart and Nene are not a strong enough defense to make up for a back court of AI and Melo. This team is in trouble- because they may score 120 points a night but they are going to give up 130, easy.
GS - Magette and Turiaf in, Baron out? Still don’t understand? Ellis is not a PG- who is going to run this team?
SAC - really like this team. One more year and some parts for Artest and you have a team looking to contend again starting in 09. But still one more year away.
As always, I’m the Doctor, I’m standing in the key and I’m planning on taking a charge!
phdsteve
Technorati Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Hornets, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trailblazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz
July 19th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Oh boy, you gotta love the West. Loaded conference, so much talent. I went power rankings instead of playoff seedings last time, I’ll start off with thoughts on a few of the teams first this time. Then power rankings again.
….. long comment, slow day …..
One thing worth pointing out about the West is that it’s very matchups orientated. Several high quality teams but with big flaws which can all be brought out into the open when playing certain squads. That makes it very hard to predict/guess because the playoff draw will be a huge deciding factor.
Firstly, the LA Lakers are a good bet for winning 65-73 games and destroying everyone in sight. They were on a 66 win pace with Gasol in the lineup, add Bynum to the mix and they’re downright nasty. They’re going to be the number one seed in the West. Health is the only thing that can rob them of that.
One other thing on LA is that they should look to trade Lamar Odom. He’s not a small forward and doesn’t function well as one. He was great in the second half of the season because of their ball movement while playing at power forward, in a position where he could properly exploit the space and ball movement as well as contribute to the ball movement. He probably (not definitely but a question mark) can’t do that as a small forward because there will be four other big men taking up the room around the paint keeping him too far from the rim too often. Odom also can’t shoot well enough from the perimeter to space the floor for Kobe and/or the two 7 foot post players. He’s also a question mark as to how effectively he can defend SFs out on the perimeter. Far too many questions for a team as talented as LA with as large championships hopes as the Lakers have.
Utah are in trouble. I love the Jazz. Beautiful basketball. Best PG in the NBA. Great head coach. Power game inside. Deep bench, everyone contributes. Great stuff …. but they can’t beat several other teams - Lakers, Spurs, Blazers, probably not a healthy Houston either. For them to win the West they’d have to have one of luckiest playoff draws of all time. They’re also likely to tease in the regular season, much like last year. They struggle with top scorers on the wing, interior scorers, teams with two quality big men - just too many flaws. Flaws that won’t be corrected because that’s not Utah’s way, they just slog away smacking their head against a brick wall trying to make it work. Something beautiful about that too. Love the Jazz.
The Hornets may have gotten worse. I love Posey but he wasn’t their biggest need, he wasn’t their second biggest need … now going miles down a road we finally come to their third biggest need and here we are at James Posey. Unfortunately he knocked out Bonzi Wells who had a shot at partially answering their second biggest need so …. not an important addition. They also have a very talented young player in Julian Wright who’s a better defender than Posey already, if only someone let the kid play, who likely just got his minutes slashed (or least potential minutes increase slashed).
By the way the Hornets can thank Mo Pete and his below par play for Posey because he forced that move. Nice way to thank your new team for the big contract Mo.
For the Hornets to win the West they need (1) Add a veteran backup big man with talent (2) Diversify their offense because they’re too one dimensional and too reliant on Chris Paul which makes them unnecessarily vulnerable to top class ball clubs. Someone will knock them out because of one or both of these problems at some stage.
Hornets have a fantastic squad but they’re a bit off track and that lack of a backup big killed them all season and in the playoffs. Chandler can never take risks defensively because foul trouble can destroy the Hornets chances of winning in one motion.
The Suns new head coach was a really odd choice. I’m not sure what to make of him yet but he only adds to the doubts. The Suns are going to be far superior next season with a training camp and full season to prepare but they have too many holes defensively and depth wise to be a frontrunner.
The Spurs are in a world of trouble. They desperately needed three things this offseason and they haven’t managed to cure a single one of their problems. Someone will beat them. They’re incredible but they lack too much behind their Big Three and that will catch up to them.
The Nuggets are roughly were they were last season. Losing Camby means very little because Nene is returning to action, he’s a very capable replacement and will fill that void. Roughly the same team as before. That’s a disjointed team incapable of contending for a title but will win a good chunk of games.
The Mavericks are better off. Rick Carlisle was a great coach. I, like Steve, was down on the appointment. Then I listened to the press conference and Carlisle sold me. That just about never happens so he must have said something very important - He said he was going to let Kidd run the offense like he did with Mark Jackson in Indiana. Boom, he smacked it out of the park, home run! I had completely forgotten how much control the PG had in those Larry Bid Pacers teams, I just ignored his whole assistant coaching career and was only considering his head coaching career. Back then; Carlisle ran their offense (he’s an offensive genious) for Bird, Harter ran the defense, Larry did the rest.
Carlisle has consistently gotten the most possible out of his teams and he’ll do the same in Dallas. They’re a good bet for the playoffs. Unfortunately their team isn’t good enough, Avery was right when he said they weren’t really a playoff team this past season and were reliant on Dirk pulling them over the line to get there … they’ll make the playoffs but likely will get ousted in the first round.
Houston are irritating. They could win the title. They could lose in the first round. They’ve got too very impressive players who are both injury prone starters. They’ve got a very good coach and lots of talent. Unfortunately they still lack a second scorer although Donte Greene may be an answer to that. They’re a wild card capable of anything. Heck they could be back in the lottery like they were three years ago if the injuries go that way.
To win in the playoffs Houston desperately need a good draw. Yao is vulnerable to quick bigs and to perimeter orientated bigs. If he can avoid them Yao can stay in the paint and be a defensive monster, if he can’t he’s a full blown liability that can crush their defense. Yao’s defense is the single biggest swing factor on their matchups. The second biggest factor is that Rafer Alston is vulnerable to top level PGs, Rafer is so unlucky right now because he’s improved so much and has turned himself into a quality defensive player. It’s just the West has lots of quality PGs.
Biggest overall factor for Houston is health. Second is mental. Then their playoff draw. That’s an awful lot of things that need to go right for them so they’re probably not a contender. Could be though.
Golden State is next on the list. They’re going to drop a bit, maybe a lot, depends on how the youth responds. Either way they’re not a playoff team.
The Clippers need a perfect storm to be a playoff team. They’re one of three teams vying for that eight spot along with Dallas and Denver. So they need both of those teams to struggle. They also need either Gordon or Thornton to emerge as a 20ppg scorer because right now Baron Davis has far too much offensive burden on his shoulders. They also need good health which hasn’t been there too often for Baron, and has been an issue with Camby also. They also lack a backup big man. They also need Kaman to be healthy. Then they need Mobley and Thomas to remember they know how to play basketball.
Biggest issues for the Clippers will be on the offensive end. Will they be able to score enough to win a tight playoff race. They should be very good defensively although doubts remain on their wings. That Azubuike signing would be great for them.
Then you have Sacramento. They’re the outsider and very likely will stay there. They’ll likely be the 11th or 12th seed but they are possibly capable of making a run at that 8th spot …. that run will probably fizzle out at some stage during the season though.
After Sac-town you have Oklahoma City, Memphis, Minnesota filling out the dweller with no hopes of doing anything meaningful.
I left out one team and that’s Portland, I’m going to gush over them later.
Daves last blog post..Nets Agree In Principle With Dooling
July 19th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
lots of good ideas Dave about how the teams play out come playoff time, but whats your rankings for end of the season? whos in and whos out? and I know the lakers were like 100-2 after the Gasol trade but that was like 3 months of basketball. Utah was like 99-3 after the Korver trade for more than half the season. I agree alot with your analysis about how the draws will determine the playoffs, but I still think Utah gets the 1 seed.
July 19th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
I’m going power rankings like I said - in order of likelihood to win the West.
(1) Lakers
(2) Blazers
Drop off
(3) Hornets
(4) Spurs
(5) Rockets
(6) Jazz
Drop off
(7) Suns
(8) Mavs
Daves last blog post..Nets Agree In Principle With Dooling
July 19th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
The Jazz were 37-12 with Kyle Korver during the regular season. 11 of those 12 losses were on the road. Their road record was 12-11, their home record was 25-1 (Lakers without Gasol+Bynum).
Daves last blog post..Nets Agree In Principle With Dooling
July 20th, 2008 at 3:43 am
Really nice posts by both Steve and Dave!
LAKERS—-1 seed
I totally agree with Dave in Lakers being the team to beat in the West. Surely they a soft team Steve but a team that has Kobe Bryant on it simply gets the edge. Kobe Bryant is the best player in the world (sorry LBJ fans) Bynum was absolutely a beast in the games he played last year. Gasol is truly one of the best power forwards in the league, however he is very soft (just ask KG). But i don’t agree with Odom being the problem. I believe he is way to valuable for the Lakers to trade him. Him being able to handle the ball from the 3 and 4 spots when Kobe is on the bench is too much to give up. He an excellent passer for his size and one of the most under-rated rebounders. The only flaw he does bring is his lack of shooting ability. That however is something you can coach around in the triangle offense. Pau Gasol is the best passing PF in the league. He is extremely unselfish which will only help in him an Bynum coexisting up front. Farmar is going to be a very good player this year. He has talent just seeping out of him. Fisher is getting old and i believe if there isn’t 0.4 on the clock in the fourth quarter, Farmar should be running the point. Losing Turiaf was bigger then people think. He plays excellent defense which is all they need from the bench. With all this said Luke Walton just got surgery done so he might miss some time, which evidently enhances their chances of coming out 1st in the West.
BIGGEST STRENGTH - Kobe Bryant
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - none
JAZZ—2 seed
I agree on most things Steve had to say about them. They are simply too well coached and disciplined to not win a minimum of 50 games. Kyle Korver was a huge addition as they really lacked 3-point shooting. He spreads the floor out really well for their studly pick and roll. If Okur can put on some muscle and get on the glass a bit more, Ak-47 can actually play par to his skill level, and if Milsap can get more playing time, I see a potential 60 win season. Too bad the Jazz can’t petition to play 82 games at home. Oh and Dave, Deron Williams is absolutely filthy but he is not the best point guard in the league. Also they do not have the best PG/PF combo in the league. They come in 2nd…
BIGGEST STRENGTH - Team Chemistry
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - Outside shooting
HORNETS—-3 seed
Chris Paul is the best point guard in the league, hands down. Hes got the skill, hes got the attitude, and hes got the killer instinct; hes got it all. You can pretty much write it in stone that he and the Hornets are going to be back in the playoffs with vengeance. David West finally the got the respect he deserved all his career last year. He is truly a top PF in this league. Their both in their mid 20’s and will have no problem playing 40 mins a night. The addition of Posey was a really good one. It gives them the toughness defensively and the playoff experience they seriously lack. however I think he was way over payed but hey he has what 2 rings now which is 2 more then 80% of the NBA. The only thing that I’m hesitant on with this team is injury. David West and Peja are very injury prone but once again you can not predict injuries so they come in 3rd for me as of now. Wright is a great young talent which will make things tough for Scott. Putting out enough mins for mo-pete, bonzi, peja, and wright between 2 positions will be tough.
BIGGEST STRENGTH - Best floor general in the bus!
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - Experience
SUNS—4 seed
This pick might be a bit bias since I have loved Steve Nash back when he was with the Suns(drafted). Its great seeing him evolve as a 2 time MVP. The best PG/PF combo in the league. Amare Stoudamire is just too filthy of a player. Shaq will help take the load of Amare on the defensive end. You just cant help but get the feeling that this is the last year that Nash and Shaq will be effective in this league. Nash is determined as ever and hs been ridden by bad luck all his career. I genuinely believe that if Grant Hill stays healthy for say 70 games this year, they have a legit shot at winning the division. He is their x-factor and i believe the reason they lost to the spurs in the playoffs (also the fact Timmy-D did a great impression of Robert Horry in game 1) If somehow Nash learns how to play defense on opposing star pg’s (Deron, B-diddy, Kidd, Parker, Pual, etc) then their going far. Losing D’antoni i believe actually helps this club because offense has never been a problem. Their problems truly is their bench. They can not win a championship with an 8 man rotation. All though gircek showed the suns fans hope, he is not the answer. They need more then Brain Skinner as their back up big man.
BIGGEST STRENGTH - Best offense in the league
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - Steve Nash’s defense and lack of depth
SPURS—-5 seed
Hey, ill admit that the only reason I ever watch spurs games are so Tony Parker absolutely loses his mind and the camera shifts to Eva Longoria. Other then that they are boring and that itself is an understatement. The big three is great but they need scoring help. Losing in the Maggette sweep stakes was huge. No longer can big shot Bob or Brent Barry carry the 2nd unit. Finley and Oberto are just too big of non factors for them to make a serious run. But then again they are the Spurs and they will probably prove me and many pissed off spurs haters wrong. Only if D’antoni told Raja Bell to force Ginobli to go right instead of his strong hand. (basic in game adjustments D’antoni, just basic) Only if…
BIGGEST STRENGTH - Big 3, experience and the playoffs will be in an odd yr
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - Age and quality depth
MAVS—-6 seed
Carlisle is a better coach then Avery. I don’t think Avery knew how to handle a situation when a star point guard runs the show. He did not give Kidd the freedom to make any calls in game. Avery is more like a baseball manager then a NBA coach. Its either his way or the highway. Carlisle will have more trust in Kidd. That is evidently what you need, the mavs stopped trusting each other. As soon as the 4th quarter hit, it was give the ball to Dirk in the high post and get out of the way. The need more team chemistry and definitely need more out of Josh Howard. They did lose depth up with the Kidd trade so they have no choice to make a all or nothing run this year. Dirk and Kidd have been there and know what needs to be done. As long as Terry, Howard, and Dirk aren’t calling the plays they will be just fine.
BIGGEST STRENGTH - Many scoring options
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - lack of team chemistry
BLAZERS—-7 seed
Just way too much talent to count them out. Brandon Roy does a great job running the show and getting Oden in there just doesn’t hurt one bit. Losing Jones does not hurt them as much as people are saying it does. Fernandez is going to be great and i see a 50 win season on the horizon.
BIGGEST STRENGTH - loads and loads of potential
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - lack of post season experience
ROCKETS—-8 seed
The team is simply to injury prone to be trusted. Yao ming is slowly becoming the Ken Griffey of Basketball. T-mac just chokes in the playoffs year in and year out. Rafer Alston is not a point guard that can run the show in the post season. Battier and Scola are very very solid and underrated players but none to brag about. Scola still can not guard the Amares, Gasols, Duncans, etc. 1st things 1st, they need a legit pg to help take the wear and tear of a long season on fragile T-mac. When the team is healthy, they are no undoubtedly a top 4 team in the west. I no i keep saying don’t predict rankings by predicting injuries but you can’t help yourself with the Rockets.
BIGGEST STRENGTH - great defensive teams with 2 legit stars
BIGGEST WEAKNESS - staying healthy! and a legit point guard
OUT OF PLAYOFFS
Clippers- no legit bench but if as Dave says, if Thornton can become a 20ppg guy then they have a shot for the 8th
Nuggets- will allow 130ppg. They played minimal defense and they trade away Camby? I still do not understand what they even got in return! Negotiations on future 2nd round pick! he was defensive player of the yr for petes sake
Wolves- yet another all start season for Jefferson, but a horrific record. They should be fun to watch with Foye, Miller, and Jefferson though
Kings- give it 2 years guys, and you will be back in the playoffs
Griz- Rudy Gay will have nightmares every night. They will include Kwame Brown….
Warriors- how is ellis going to the run the point? He is purely a scorer and they really got some issues not in Oakland.
Supersonics- Durant is great and rest of the team not so much
take care guyz and galz…
Nihal Jamals last blog post..West Preview 1.0
July 20th, 2008 at 4:13 am
forgive the spelling mistakes as you can tell it is 4 am! lol
July 20th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
I like the diversity of the conversation so far.
I see the West Finishing like this:
1)NO (58-60)
2)UTAH (56-58)
3)LAL (55-57)
4)SA (53-55)
5)SUNS (53-55)
6)HOU (53-55)
7)POR (53-55)
8)DAL/GS (50)
As much as I love the JAZZ (and I have been a fan for years, I still have my Malone Jersey from 1992) I think the Hornets take #1 overall but it will be the closest race for 1-2, and I think it will be closer than 8-9.
Depending on injuries and future additions, I see SA, PHO, HOU, and POR all interchangable between 4-7. Too many factors, ifs, and buts will decide where these teams seed.
Can SA big three stay healthy and perform at that level once again? Will the lack of acquisitions hurt them?
Can Shaq continue to contribute and is Nash’s decline as a pg start to considerable drop this season? How far can Amare take them? Can Hill still be effective?
Will TMAC and Yao be healthy by playoff time? Will Beijing hurt Yao? Will TMAC finally open his eyes?
(Note to Nihal: TMAC does not choke in the playoffs, thats just a misconception.In fact, this past postseason, TMAC averaged 27 pts, 8rpg, 7apg, 1.5 steals, 3 to and 1 block over 6 games, hardly choking. There was no one else on that team who could score. When Rafer is your second leader scorer in the playoffs, the team is in trouble, yet they took Utah to 6 games this year and 7 last year)
A second note on TMAC, his Career playoff numbers are 28.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.8 apg, 1.3 steals, 3 to and 1.1 blocks. How much more can the man do? Ask LeBron how it feels to average those same numbers and lose to Boston? If anyone else shows up Houston beats Utah and the Cavs beat Boston. But thats an argument for another day. No disrespect Nihal, I just hate the Tmac bashing that most people do.
I have to agree with steve that the Lakers, although look great on paper with Bynum and the huge upside that he has, he still has not proved himself and the fact that he played 35 games last season makes his impact just as big a wildcard as the other teams in the west, but any team with Kobe, like any team with LeBron, will always rank higher based on the 10 games a season he will win for you. Add that to the 10 games that Zen Master Phil wins for you. Add Gasol for a full season, and we have the making of a grea team again. Bynum is the wildcard, not Odom.
The team that will surprise will be Portland. People need to remeber that Portland had a big winning streak last season and the increase of Oden is underappreciated considering how he played his final season in College with his left hand and still dominated. This team will be good, but their lack of experience will hurt them, yet I dont think this roster is the same come trade deadline time.
July 20th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
1. LAKERS
2. SPURS
3. HORNETS
4. JAZZ
5. SUNS
6. BLAZERS
7. ROCKETS
8. MAVS
9. G.S
10 NUGETS
11 CLIPERS
12 KINGS
13 T WOLVES
14 GRIZZ
15 OAKLAHOMA _________
July 20th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
By t-mac choking in the playoffs i did not mean stats wise. The year before last he had Yao with him and he still couldn’t get past the first round. Or how bout the time when he was in Orlando when he was up what 2-0 in the series to Detroit and he guaranteed a second round birth but “choked” his way to go home fishing early yet again. Lebron has even less of a team to work with and yet the Cavs are a threat to compete for Eastern finals every year. If T-mac wants to be considered a superstar in this league then getting past the first round is a must…otherwise some sick point Gino!
July 20th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Thanks Nihal.
I agree what he needs is to get past the first round to be considered in the next level of superstars (same like what was said about KG) but I mean, what else can the guy do? One player leading a team runs out gas eventually, unfortunately for McGrady he cannot get any help come playoff time, like LeBron.
Remember that two years in a row they has lost to Utah who have been a kryptonite to them. Any other matchup and they probaby get through to the second round. I compare that to Washington who have two straight loses to Lebron, and they were the only team to have a winning record against the celtics last season.
A correction on your stat: The year that Detroit won in 7 games Orlando was up 3-1 and lost the last 3 in which he avgd 32 ppg, 7rpg, 5apg, 2st, and 1 block with 4 to. Again, what more can you expect from one player? I agree he must lead his team and help elevate them as the floor leader but really, what else can the man do?
A final note (i promise) is that Tmack teams in the last 4 years have lost in 7, 7, 7, and 6 games. He is leading them to the brink and i think that this year will be different.
I dont want to harp on this anymore, but I do see your point Nihal. He needs to win (especially for his own pshyche)
July 20th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Dave I like your power rankings, but i think you have too much faith in Portland. I might be inclined to agree with you if they make some moves during the season to add some grit and experience but as constructed, they are at least one year from making a deep run. But I am also excited to what they can do and you are correct in writing that they will be a force to reckon with.
July 21st, 2008 at 12:01 pm
I started off my first comment by saying the West is strongly matchup orientated, that while there’s many high quality teams they all have considerable flaws which can be exploited by several other teams making the road through the West and difficult one to maneuver.
There’s only two teams that transcend this failure - the Lakers and Portland
Portland have the interior play. The perimeter play. The defense. The shooting ability. The scoring, small hole here but it’ll likely get filled by committee. The rebounding. The halfcourt offense, the transition offense. Creativity off the dribble. Go-to guys. Two seven foot post players. The bench. The coach.
They have the total package.
Daves last blog post..
July 21st, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Oh wow..after reading this West preview, there are just too many things to disagree upon, so i’m just going to dial myself in on the Utah argument for first. There is no way you, or anyone else, can justify placing Utah 1st. You yourself said in the East article that these rankings are based purely on current rosters, so you shouldn’t be placing the Lakers lower based on speculation. And Utah has shown nothing over this off-season or over the course of last season to justify any elevation in their ranking over the Lakers, Hornets, or Spurs. For the Spurs you can argue aging, but NOTHING for sure to justify placing them against the Lakers or Hornets. The Hornets are a better version of the Jazz, with the best PG in the business running the show, and they have a much better defensive tandem of big men compared to Utah, which is what matters in the West. And the Lakers disposed of the Jazz in 6 without Bynum, so how do you seem the getting worse with him. Ridiculous if you ask me. And best pg/pf combo in the league? PLEASE! Amare is without a question the most talented, freakishly athletic, best offensive big man in the league. Combine him with the best PURE point, and best passer in the NBA in Steve Nash, and you have what makes up the BEST PG/PF in the league, as they showed clearly over the last season. Yes, they have a deep bench, but again the lakers are deeper. The Lakers averaged more points per game from their bench, a higher +/- from their bench than the Jazz, so again advantage goes to the Lakers (and that bench was missing Mihm and Ariza for plenty of the season). Lastly, the Jazz don’t get to the line the most season in and out. Sacramento made more than them both of the last 2 seasons, and Denver more last season and tied them in 06-07. Oh and on top of that, the Lakers made as many as them last season, again invalidating one of your arguments. For the record, Jazz tied T3 in 07-08 and T4 in 06-07 for FTM. And I doubt anyone considers a semi-final exit last year, and a easy disposal by San An in the Western Conference finals DEEP conference runs. And for them to even get there, they had to get the fortunate matchups of Hou and Gs. Please, if Utah finishes 1st this year I boldly predict that the Lakers will not make the playoffs. Give me a break man, and get your facts straight. Lakers with the better starting lineup, better bench, better coach, and best player in the NBA = better team. For the record, here are my rankings:
1. LA Lakers
2. NO Hornets
3. SA Spurs
4. Utah Jazz
5. PHX Suns
6. Portlan Trail Blazers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Houston Rockets
For once, rankings that make sense.
July 21st, 2008 at 7:48 pm
I knew it was only a matter of time before someone called me out. After reading 12 lovey-dovey posts from Dave, Nihal, Shayne and Gino- I was wondering who was left to tell me how crazy I am….and then came Adam. Adam, welcome to the show!
Look, I can totally agree with anyone who wants to put NO in the #1 seed or who wants to make an argument for CP3 and David West as the best pg/pf combo in the league. I think that team should win 60 games this year.
I also think that Amare and Nash are an excellent combo- and I know sooner or later Nihal will pipe in with how Brand and Miller are the best combo when it comes to their ability to score in the post!
I can also understand the argument for the Lakers, with Gasol, being the number one seed- since their play last season as the conference champs justifies that. BUT just so we are all on the same page- the argument that with Bynum and Gasol they will be even better- is precisely the type of speculation- that these rankings try to avoid. The Lakers run last season was so effective because of how Gasol and Odom played together. Adding a young centre with only 35 games experience doesnt qualify as teh deal breaker as to why this team rules. Lakers fans are like Leafs fans in hockey- they think their ()#%#)$* dont stink and that their prospects and players are better than everyone elses. BYNUM HAS DONE NOTHING- so slow down.- OK- Bargnani had a better 1st year in the NBA than Bynum by a country mile. AND the bench that Lakers fans love to tout, includes a variety of players who, well, suck. Walton, Radmonovic, Farmar, etc. come on. On any other team, you would be talking about how bad they are. Ariza is a very nice player. I must agree- but he again hasnt played enough in his career to justify being a difference maker on a championship team. AND that is why, even with Kobe and Phil (which I concede is enough to argue they deserve the #1 seed), this team is just not as good, talented, or deep as NO or Utah. And cut the better coach crap. Jerry Sloan is as good as any coach who ever coached basketball. Phil is great too, but its not like he is in a different universe from Sloan.
Also, the point that Utah was tied for 3rd and 4th in free throws is reinforcign my point- and obviously I was not penny-pinching my facts when I suggested that LA was 100-1 since getting Gasol and Utah was 99-2 since getting Korver.
You are overlooking the importance of team bonding in building a championship team. this Utah team as constructed has now been through 3 years together- including 2 playoff runs where they beat a GS team that you mocked who came off a playoff victory over a 65 win team, and beat Houston twice (a team that has over 100 wins in the last 2 seasons). These are Boston-Atlanta type series. Keeping this team as is, is actually the best move to be made here for Utah. The korver move last year really puts this team over the top.
And as for your point of LA beating Utah in 6, this is all I have to say:
freethrow differential in the series was like so:
game one- LA 38-46, Utah 22-30, including 23 trips for Kobe
game two- LA 35- 43 AND CHECK THIS BULL SHIT OUT- Utah 13-16
THERE WAS A 30 FREE THROW DIFFERENCE-
game three- LA 30-37, Utah 20-28, including 14-17 for Kobe- AND HERES THE KICKER- this game was in…UTAH!
and even though Utah had almost double the free throws of LA in game four, the two players with the most free throws in the game were Odom and Kobe- of LAs 25 trips to the line 10 came from Odom and 10 came from Kober- meaning if the rest of the soft trash on LA even tried to attack the basket- history (ie. games 1-3) suggests they would have gotten the calls
so how does a team that was ranked 3rd adn 4th in free throws only get
game five- AGAIN in UTAH- a major swing game in terms of momentum- LA gets to the line 42 times and and makes 34, Utah only gets 24-28 freethrows.
game six- in the closeout game, LA 31-38, Utah 22-25
so you tell me how a team that is consistently top 5 in free throws only gets to the line 172 times in a series when the opponent gets there 231 times? How can any team overcome that? That means your bench is always short because people are always in foul trouble. That means your defence is always under pressure because it cant even breathe on a defender without getting called for a foul. that means your offense is slowed down to a halt because everyplay starts out from under your own basket…and so on and so on..and so on.
Im not saying that the NBA wanted an LA-BOS final so bad that it cheated, but maybe some of the refs or even Sir charles had some money on it.
July 21st, 2008 at 8:01 pm
sorry, I got so carried away on my rant, that I forgot my point:
that Utah doesnt have to play LA 81 times and deal with that kind of garbage refing. So, when all things are equal, this is a team that won 55 games last year and with Korver all year and the fundamentals of a Jerry Sloan team should win 60 and the #1 seed.
but Im cool with NO as the #1 seed too.
July 21st, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Fun posts Steve
Here’s a few facts for you. Utah were only 11th this season in FTs earned per field goal atttempt. The Lakers were 7th. Utah gave away the fourth most FTs defensively because Jerry Sloan has a “no layups rule”, while the Lakers were 21st. In other words they were 9th best team at not putting the opponent on the free throw line while Utah were one of the worst. This is nothing new for Utah, they’ve always been good at getting to the line but they’ve also given up a lot of FTs on the other end because of the physical basketball they play.
Utah are also very flawed on their perimeter defense from the wing positions. They’re very vulnerable against top scorers and gotten lit up by a bunch of different wings over the past few seasons - Redd and Ray both dropped 50 on them season before last, Tmac and Kobe, and a few others - It’s a regular sight to see Utah struggle with top scorers on the wing. This is also partially due to Sloan because he doesn’t like to send any double teams to help.
But mostly it’s their personnel …. they have no stoppers on the wings. All four of their wings particularly struggle with quick footed penetrating guards, they can’t deny dribble penetration.
Brewer will be their best perimeter defender but he’s still young and learning. Kobe sized him up in about 10 minutes and killed him for the rest of the season. Several others did the same. But he has the defensive intent and athletic abilities to turn himself into a very good defender. Right now he’s slightly above average and also a Kobe Bryant whipping boy. In the Utah series nobody got scored on as often or as easily as Brewer. Kirilenko is the next best defender and he’s only an average one-on-one perimeter defender, his best defensive skills are as a weakside shot blocker around the rim. Not running after Kobe and stopping penetration. Korver is the next best and he’s a mediocre defender. Harpring is the worst of the four and he’s very weak defensively.
There’s also a second part of this problem. Not only are Utah weak defensively on the wings but they’ve got very little help interior defense. Boozer and Okur are both solid defenders and can take care of their own men, but neither are shot blockers and neither are mobile/active enough to really pose problems for guys when they drive into the paint. This means that when Kobe and Co. got into the paint they generally got whatever they wanted.
The only player who can block shots is Kirilenko but he’s out on the perimeter trying to be a stopper instead of being able to use his actual defensive skills ….
Well anyway, so now you have Kobe killing them one-on-one and getting into the paint at will and either scoring, drawing a foul or setting someone else up for an easy shot.
By the way, Tracy could have done the same thing that Kobe did. He just doesn’t have the killer instinct to repeatedly drive into the paint, take the punishment and then make them pay. It’s his one big flaw come playoff time, still he’s a great player he’s just below those top guys.
There’s another interesting stat from that series but I don’t have it handy on me. The Jazz were killing the Lakers on the offensive boards and destroying them with their second chance points, huge advantage for Utah. But all those extra points were given up in another way, fastbreak points. While the Jazz were sending everyone to the offensive glass, the Lakers were running the other way and getting easy layups. Several of which turned into fouls because Utah don’t like giving up easy baskets, which added to the FT difference again. The difference in 2nd chance points was almost identical to the difference in fastbreak points in the end, just canceled each other out.
The Lakers also did another interesting thing in that series. They packed the paint and forced Utah to shoot more perimeter shots than they like. Utah being pig headed in a lovable way generally refused and went full tilt into the paint regularly shooting over two or three Lakers defenders rather than settling for the easy shot. The only perimeter shooters the Lakers stuck with where Korver, Okur and Williams. They let Kirilenko, Brewer, Price and Harpring go to enable this strategy. This helped the Lakers from giving up easy baskets and allowed them to contest all these shots easily while not fouling.
By the way the Lakers only got better at this when Gasol joined. The man just doesn’t foul and he’s a very good shot blocker. He blocks 1.8 shots a game for his career and only gets 2.4 fouls a game for his career. He does a great job of standing still, putting his arms high, and contests the shot while not fouling. Well done Pau.
Utah also had another problem with the Lakers and that was the high post passing of both Odom and Gasol. Neither Boozer or Okur are good at defending players away from the hoop, like I said earlier they’re not active/mobile and so they never pressure the ball. This meant LA was able to use their triangle offense virtually unopposed at all times which meant lots of lovely passing and cutting off the ball making LA very hard to defend.
Another problem for Utah was Odom’s ability to take his man off the dribble. Neither Okur or Boozer could effectively defend Odom, Odom went from being a 13ppg regular scorer to an 18ppg scorer against the Jazz.
The Lakers free throw advantage was entirely predictable and expected. If you played those games out a 100 times the results wouldn’t change, the Lakers would still have a massive free throw advantage.
This is Utah’s problem. They match up badly with several of the West’s top teams. They’re not a true contender until they make some roster moves which is a damn shame because I love watching them play basketball. For my money they’ve the most beautiful offense in the league.
Daves last blog post..Good Read: LA Times Gasol Report Card
July 21st, 2008 at 8:55 pm
cheap shot there Steve! Just wait and see Elton Brand eat up the East this year…
July 21st, 2008 at 10:25 pm
sorry Nihal, I couldnt help myself! Im sure Brand will be great.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:29 am
lol its all good, you can’t argue against Adam. He is right. The Lakers are the team to beat until they actually are taken down. Getting Bynum back should only help them or atleast not make them worse. As i said Gasol is the best passing big man and suits the triangle offense very well. Everybody is unselfish on the team as long as Kobe plays like the Kobe of last year. Bynum will have improved leaps and bounds last year as Kareem is doing a great job with his development. Gasol will only help him thus helping the Lakers. I also don’t understand why you hate Farmar so much. He is a very solid pg with loads of potential. Once again in the triangle offense you dont need a deron or nash or paul to run your offence. Fisher and farmar are more then enough at the point for them to be a championship team.
July 22nd, 2008 at 5:43 am
Ok where to start, obviously i’m a Laker adorer, but you can’t argue with the facts. Im just gonna start at the top of your argument, and work my way down. First off, couldn’t agree more with Dave or Nihal’s comments, especially Dave on the FT disparity. You can’t just point out a stat and cry foul, thats not the way professional sports work. When one team, and especially one player in Kobe Bryant is willing to take it to the rack with reckless abandon, he will get the call being the best player in the NBA. He gets fouled almost everytime he goes in the paint, and Jerry Sloan does have a no layup rule. Its not like the referees were deciding the series, and I certainly don’t remember a lot of blame being put upon them. This was just weak perimeter D and Utah bigs getting exposed. One team was better at getting to the line, get over it. That’s playoff basketball. Boozer shrunk faster than T-Mac when the playoffs rolled around this year, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. So please, you watched the games, don’t tell me in anyway they were called unfairly. Ok so now lets start with your argument. Fine, avoid that speculation if you wish. But just so you know what Bynum DID DO last season was just lead the league in FG% before he went down. That’s all. Oh yea, and did I forget to mention, the Lakers were still in 1st in the West for the majority of the season while Bynum was healthy (PRE-GASOL). That’s all, nothing major, just you know, a solid 13 points, 10 boards, 2 blocks, 64% from the field line. Just the type of line you can find anywhere in the league. Worst-case scenario (which would NEVER happen because Bynum is the perfect complement to Gasol’s skill set, especially in the Triangle which is the whole reason they have held on to both of them and got Gasol in the first place), is that they bring Bynum off the bench, and have one of the most talented back-up centres in NBA history. That’s all, like I said, nothing major, that would in no way improve the Lakers. Right? C’mon Steve, IS THAT A JOKE? (P.S. Bynum was the youngest NBA player EVER drafted, that’s right, in NBA HISTORY. Bargnani spent time and played in the Euro league, completed a full season there, and was much older and much more mature when entering the league. So don’t even compare them. Bargnani even had a better first season in the NBA than Kobe so give me a break on that.) What’s next on the agenda, oh yes, the so called bench. The bench with the 2nd best +/- in the NBA without Ariza and Mihm for the majority of the season. The bench with 2 guys that shot the 3 extremely well (Farmar at 37%, Vujacic at 43%), and a lockdown man in Vujacic. And honestly I hate Walton as much as the next guy, but he does good things and plays smart outside the final 5 minutes of the game. He’s a solid passer and uses his size to his advantage. You act like Farmar and Vujacic need to come in and run the show when they get in there. No, all they have to do is hit the open looks. THIS IS THE TRIANGLE OFFENSE PEOPLE! The ball works inside out, not outside-in. Farmar is an excellent cutter off the ball with good finish at the rim, and a well above average 3 point shooter. Vujacic is a top 10 3 point shooter with an exceptionally quick release. Vlad Rad shoots the rock at over 40% from downtown. And Ariza is an athletic wing with good activity on both ends of the floor. That’s what is so special about this bench, the activity and camaraderie. Yes, losing Turiaf will hurt, but Ariza and Mihm for a whole season will more than offset that loss. Next, Jerry Sloan vs Phil Jackson. Yes, Jerry is a very good coach, I agree. I’ll slot him right behind Phil and Pop (off the top of my head). But 9 rings to none, that is a world of difference my friend, and don’t tell me it isn’t. For God’s sake, he’s made the NBA finals twice in 23 years as an NBA coach. That is a chasm of difference. As for your point about team bonding, maybe you are forgetting that this team outside of Gasol has also been together for 3 years. And that they showed on and off the court a ton of chemistry, integrating Gasol into the team seamlessly, without even missing a step. This team was cited for its chemistry all season, so we can’t even give Utah an edge on that one. And I will definitely continue to mock Houston, because on last count, how many times has T-Mac underachieved in the playoffs? How many times has he gotten out of the first round? That big zero there is pretty well known to all of us. And last year they were Yao-less. So not some great series to really brag about, GS had the perfect match-up and exploited it against Dallas. Kudos to them, wouldn’t have worked against probably any other team that year. If you ask me, Utah is the team with something to prove before they can move up in my books, not an LA team that was first with Bynum and Kobe (minus Gasol), and first with Gasol and Kobe (minus Bynum). So don’t tell me adding in a player of Bynum’s size, intimidation, and physical presence (all things which Odom and Gasol were criticized for in the playoffs and regular season) won’t help. If there’s anything Bynum isn’t, it’s soft.
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
9 rings to none- ok, so does that mean that Horry is better than Barkley?
just curious.
and how could I hate farmar, he is from my school- we are both UCLA Bruins. But comeon, he is at best, a poor mans second string pg.
Im not hating on Kobe (he is after all my favorite player in the NBA) but he does gets calls that no one else (except maybe D Wade or the Boston 3 Party) gets. I like to call them the “hand of god” calls, because the hand that was checking them could be seen only by God when the officials made the calls.
and I’ll tkae the Knicks bench over the LA bench any day.
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
one more thing- who cares if Bynum is the youngest player ever drafted? why does that matter? how does that relate to him being a good player? Wasnt Kwame Brown once the youngest player ever drafted?
Im glad that Bynum has put up Dalembert type numbers for 33 games, lets throw him a party. But for him to be the 2nd option or even 3rd option on this team he needs to play at another level and although the LA media loves to hype him up to Kareem like standards- he is more in the brendan haywood arena. I was wrong that Bynum only played 33 games in his career, instead his career numbers look like this:
05-06 LAL : 46 games 1.6points/game and 1.7 rebounds/game- this was of course the year when he was the youngest player in NBA (ever). Wow, he sure showed all them grown men how to play.
06-07 LAL : 82 games 7.8points/game and 5.9 rebounds/game - this was ofcourse the season that ended with Kobe calling Bynum overrated and wondering how GM Kipchuck wouldnt make a Kidd for Bynum deal.
07-08 LAL : 35 games 13.1 points/game and 10.2 rebounds/game- definately an improvement but certainly not all star numbers and to quote the great Yoda- 35 games a season does not make. It sounds to me more like the LA media gushing over the improved Kobe team play and making up for writing this guy off only 6 months earlier.
again- he may turn out to be good BUT he is not a special type of player and he is definitely not the difference maker in LA.
and FYI- Bargnani was only 20 when he was drafted by the Raps and was playing in Euro mens league action when he was Bynums age. Thats not his fault, but instead is more proof as to why Il Mago has a better chance to be an all star 7 footer than Bynum- he has a history of playing at a high level and succeeding. Bynum had a strong (not super, Lebron or Superman style) highschool career, and then his NAB career has been, well, nothing to write home about. Remember, he wasnt a high school phenom, he was drafted 10th overall by the Lakers in 2005. Other big men (Centres and PFs) taken in the first round that year with comparable or better career numbers include:
PPG RPG APG
Bynum (#10) 7.2 5.6 1.0
Bogut (#1) 11.9 8.5 2.6
Villenueva (#7) 12.3 6.2 1.0
Frye (#8) 9.4 5.2 0.8
Diogu (#9) 6.5 3.3 0.4
May (#13) 10.4 5.9 1.5
Warrick (#19) 9.7 4.1 0.7
Maxiel (#26) 6.0 3.7 0.4
Lee (#30) 8.9 7.9 1.2
over the last 3 seasons, Bynum has shown nothing to suggest that he is a) a superstar in the making, (b)an all star 7 footer, or (c) the best big man from his draft class.
in comparison to another 7 footer, who came straight from high school to the NBA, and who is a superstar in the making, (b)an all star 7 footer, or (c) the best big man from his draft class- Dwight Howard, taken just one year earlier, and, - well, just look at the career numbers:
16.5 12.2 1.4 - thats almost double in every category.
also, leading the league in FG% is not impressive when you are 7ft tall- again- see Brendan Haywoods career stats. Being in the top 5 or top 10 in fg% as a SG, PG, or SF is impressive. Remember, dunks and layups have equal value to an 18ft jump shot when calculating FG%.
July 22nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
That’s a lot of hate for Bynum. Let me put it this way, I’d trade Jermaine O Neal right now for Bynum because Bynum right now is already a better player than Jermaine. Bosh? No he isn’t better than Bosh but he likely will be in a couple of years.
Bynum’s impact on the court is nothing short of incredible. It’s amazing because the guy still can’t create his own shot and he isn’t a top defender. He shouldn’t be able to change games the way he can but he does.
Bynum’s inability to create his own shot is mainly down to confidence. He actually has good post moves, he just doesn’t have confidence in them or an understanding of when and where to use them. He was only getting 1-2 post ups a game before he got injured this past season. By the end of next season, 82 games time, he’ll be much further along here.
Bynum started the season coming off the bench but was simply too good to stay there. As a starter (25 games), he averaged 15ppg, 11rpg, 2apg, 2+bpg and shot 66% from the floor. He was doing all this damage in 31 minutes a game. If you pumped up his minutes (all 33 games stats included) by 5 to 36 minutes a night, he was averaged 16.4ppg, 12.7rpg, 2.6bpg, 2.2apg.
It’s not the points that makes Bynum special, 13-15 points is easily replaceable, what makes him special is how he does it …. Bynum scores 9.6 of those points in the paint. Only 6players in the NBA score more points in the paint per game than that - Shaq (Miami, not Phoenix), Al Jefferson, Amare, Bogut, Boozer, Gasol. Just in case you’re wondering, Bynum scores 250% more points per game in the paint than Jermaine O Neal, the Raps main post presence. Again this is without actually creating his own shot which is plain freakish.
He may not be a top defender but he was coming on leaps and bounds before getting injured. At 7 plus feet with a terrific wingspan, great agility, timing and awareness … Bynum has an incredibly imposing physique that will allow him to dominate defensively. Players already are hesitant to drive and challenge him around the rim. He’s a very good defender already but he still has a few things to learn, he doesn’t show on pick and rolls well and he picks up sloppy rookie mistake fouls. His rate of improvement defensively was incredible in the weeks leading up to his injury, if he didn’t get injured I’d have no doubts he would be close to an all-league type of defender by the end of the season.
He’s also a very good post defender. Even as a rookie he was able to defend Duncan and Shaq well in limited minutes. That’s before he had anywhere near the conditioning he needed to be a pro. He’s very strong and holds his position very well. Very tough to push off the block.
His opposition PER is below average. The most interesting stat is that the man he was guarding shot only 42% on the season which is incredible at the best of times but even more incredible because the Lakers defense while very good wasn’t top of the line like a Celtics or Rockets defense.
They put out some stats on Bynum’s clutch play (limited sample obviously, close games last 5 minutes, 11 games) and they were phenomenal. Especially his shot blocking. His blocked shot numbers were almost twice as high as the next guy. Overall he would have been 6th in blocks per game at 2.1bpg had he played enough games. Protects the rim well.
Bynum’s rebounding ability is what really sets him apart. He was 5th in rebounding rate last season, percentage of boards snared while on the court. Bosh was 48th, Jermaine was 59th. The man was averaging 10.2 boards per game in 28.8 minutes. That’s phenomenal. 3 of those rebounds were offensive rebounds, another phenomenal stat. He’s also a great team rebounder because he takes up so much space around the rim, it’s hard to get around him and steal rebounds from him. He boxes out well and the Lakers are a vastly superior rebounding team with Bynum on the floor.
Bynum is also a very good passer passer. He had the fourth highest assist rate (some Hollinger stat for passing) out of all centers in the league. He’s intelligent and multi-skilled.
He was also improving throughout the season and was averaging 17.3ppg, 12.7rpg, 2.7apg, 2.4bpg in his final month of action.
He destroyed Andrew Bogut with a 25 point 17 rebound performance, a 16 and 13 performance earlier in the season against Bogut. He dropped 23 and 13 on Jermaine O Neal, another 17 and 10 against JO earlier in the season. He had 17 and 9 against Chandler. He 17 and 16 against Dalembert, another game of 24 and 12 against Dalembert. He had 28 and 12 against Amare, while dominating him on the other end of the court too (19 and 6 for Amare, well below his regular numbers). 17 and 11 against the Cavs mighty defense. 20 and 11 against the big man-less Warriors, another 16 and 17 against them a few days later. 15 and 9 in 19 minutes off the bench against Utah, 14 and 13 in 22 minutes off the bench against Phoenix.
The way he gets his numbers is sensational. I’d trade JO for him right now, I’d throw in Bargnani too no problems. Just for what he can do next season. For his long term potential? I’d put anything on the table.
Can you imagine how happy we’d all be if Barngani ever did what Bynum has done? He’d instantly be the most celebrated player on the team, completely untouchable.
Daves last blog post..Good Read: LA Times Gasol Report Card
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:03 am
Bynum’s opposition PER was below average, I meant that in a good way. He holds his man to a below par PER. Kobe and Vujacic were the only other Lakers do also do so. Difficult ask for an individual when your team defense isn’t a Boston Celtics level defense.
Daves last blog post..Good Read: LA Times Gasol Report Card
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
Dave,I dont hate Bynum but I do hate-on Lakers fans and NBA dreamers who pump up LA talent like its better than everyone else’s. Like their prospects are always better, with more upside, and do more. Its like their garbage is somehow worth more because its from LA. Look, you are a numbers guy- but his career numbers are more like Brendan Haywood than JO.
Come on Dave- now we are just entering silly land. I mean JO for Bynum is crazy. When Bynum has JO type numbers for 1 year, let alone 10 years, then we can talk. And just because a guy has some good games doesnt make him a superstar. After all, Joey Graham destroyed summer league play but that doesnt mean that Id Corey Magette for Joey Graham. I wouldnt trade Bargnani for Bynum, even if LA threw in Farmar. And not because Im a homer but because Im not sold on Bynum.
To Daves point: Bynum scores 250% more points per game in the paint than Jermaine O Neal, the Raps main post presence. Again this is without actually creating his own shot which is plain freakish.
The translation is: he has no outside jump shot and can only score on open looks when his man is double-teaming or triple-teaming Kobe. JO can score inside and out. Wait and see what JOs numbers in the paint look like this year when he consistently gets open looks after team double Bosh. JO also faced a constant double team for more than 5 seasons- has anyone every doubled Bynum?
To Daves point: He was doing all this damage in 31 minutes a game. If you pumped up his minutes (all 33 games stats included) by 5 to 36 minutes a night, he was averaged 16.4ppg, 12.7rpg, 2.6bpg, 2.2apg.
What needs to be said is: if you pumped up Kris Humpries numbers from his 13 minutes a night to a 40 minutes a night -heis numbers would translate to: ppg17. rpg11.2 apg1.2
Lakers fans are classic. Believe me, I lived there, I read it everyday.
When Kobe only gets to the line 10 times a night, they cry that he gets hacked non stop but never gets the call. When Kobe gets to the line 30 times a night, they point out its because hes aggressive. When Kobe wins an MVP award he doesnt deserve they claim that it was “his time” and that he had a better season than CP3 because his team won 1 more game, or a better season than LBJ even though LBJs numbers and play were better in all areas. Luke Walton is suddenly a clutch 6th man, and Farmar is an excellent young point guard. Turiaf was a key energy guy- until its time to pay him and then “they dont really need him” because he doesnt really do anything. Radmonovic is a core player (9th man on any other team), and Vujovic is a starter? Marc Gasol was the “steal of the draft” and Javaris Crittenon had all start potential last year until they were dealt to memphis and then they were junk parts in the greatest rip off in NBA history. Kobe Carl is now the best player in the summer league, and you can be sure that as soon as Odom gets shipped out of town he’ll be labeled as the most overrated player in the league.
The point is, they always tell themselves the story that they want to hear. The problem is that everyone else around the league somehow believes this trash. Its like living in leafland. Its crazy.
We’ll chalk it up to one more thing that we dont see eye to eye on Dave. Usually I respect your opinion,even when we differ…but Bynum for JO and
Bargnani- come on!
And even when Bynum comes back- this is a team that only won 1 game more than NO and SA, 2 games more than HOU or PHE, and 3 games more than UT- and then beat a dysfunctional Denver, got a gift from the refs in the Utah series, beat (barely) a SA team that was worn down and injured (and only after a miracle game 1 victory- that really won that series for them) and then got punked by a Boston team that struggled to beat Atlanta and Cleveland. They are chumps- who played over their head last year but got exposed for what they really were in the finals. How do you loose by 30+ in a closeout game in the NBA finals? And a better question is how does a 21 year old who averaged 10-10 change everything and all of a sudden make this team more physical, more defensive minded, more aggressive, and have more heart? And what offseason moves have they made to get better? exactly.
they are the tin man of the NBA.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Here’s another defensive stat for Bynum - The Lakers defensive efficiency (pts conceded per 100 possessions) was 2 points better with Bynum on the floor than off the floor (large difference). Their defensive efficiency with Bynum was superior to Detroit’s and would have ranked fourth overall in the NBA. They were also one of the league’s best rebounding teams with Bynum on the floor, ranking 7th versus 19th without him.
The minutes argument for Bynum is because he clearly can produce enough to play normal starter minutes and will play starters minutes in the immediate future. He was playing 29mpg and was the Lakers second most important player. He’s not some end of the bench player player. That’s why extrapolating the minutes is relevant. Like it would be for a player like Rajon Rondo in Boston.
As for Bynum not having a jump shot, you’re right. I don’t care, he’s 7 foot monster in the low post. He doesn’t need a jump shot. The minute his defender leaves him he cuts to the basket, puts his hands up and jumps over everyone and gets a layup. He doesn’t need a jump shot. The man takes 80% of his shots inside the paint and finishes 70% of them.
Jermaine O Neal doesn’t have much of a jump shot either. He takes a lot of them but he doesn’t shoot them at a good clip. Last three years he’s shot and eFG% of 36%, 37% and 38% on his jump shots (around 70% of his total shots are jump shots). Notice it’s been fairly consistent over the three years (albeit progressively worse). He’s not a good jump shooter, he just a guy that takes a lot of jump shots … a lot like Josh Smith. By the way, Jermaine shoots the same percentage on jump shots as Bynum did last year at 36%.
Bynum should have been an All-Star for the Western Conference if he had stayed healthy. He would have had my vote. His performances were the principal factor in turning LA from a low 40s win first round exit team into one of the West’s best squads. His impact was phenomenal.
Daves last blog post..Good Read: LA Times Gasol Report Card
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:19 pm
As for the other Lakers young players,
I agree with you on Farmer. I think he’s overrated too and have serious doubts that he’ll ever be good enough to be a quality starter. Good backup guard though. It’s not just LA fans though, nearly everyone around the NBA thinks of him very highly. I don’t see it.
Vladimar Radmanovic was a 6th man candidate of the year in Seattle. He was also the Clippers best bench player on their playoff run. He is not a 9th man on most teams, on most teams he’s one of the best 6th men in the league. He’s also an awful fit in the Lakers offense because he has neither the intelligence or the discipline to operate in the triangle offense. He’s also a pure scorer who likes to have the ball in his hands rather than the quick passing and constant movement the Triangle demands. He was a really bad signing for them and he’d be much better for another team.
Luke Walton was a solid starter the season before last scoring 11ppg, 5rpg and 4apg (beautiful passer) while shooting very well from the field (49% from the floor, 39% from three). Unfortunately he took a huge step back last season after getting that large contract and was performing more like a Carlos Delfino. At the moment, he’s a 7th or 8th man type and grossly overpaid. It’ll be interesting if he can get back to his previous levels.
Javaris Crittenton - I think he’s an excellent prospect, far better than Farmer. I would have given up Farmer before giving up Javaris, but Farmer is further along and could help straight away so there was some good ideals about keeping him instead of Crittenton. I had him pegged as one of the steals in the draft a year ago, he had an incredible summer league following that, and he showed some great abilities in short minutes while with the Lakers. Since moving to Memphis he’s gotten caught up in their point guard overload with Conley, Lowry, himself and now OJ Mayo is joining the team. Javaris was perfect for the Triangle too because he had run it in HS, where he played with Dwight Howard, where Crittenton was leading scorer. He’s still a bit away but there is a huge amount of talent there.
Turiaf - overrated. Very skilled but doesn’t use them often enough, doesn’t have that killer type instinct. Just wants to blend in. Good defensively. Poor rebounder. Good passer. Some post skills and a good jump shot. Like I said he’s skilled but he doesn’t use them, overall he’s an average backup big man.
Vujacic - Excellent shooter. Good scorer. Good defender. Very good pressure defender on ballhandling guards. Solid passer and ballhandler. Very versatile, can play three positions on the wing. He’s the best 7th man in the league or a good 6th man. Really nice piece, he’s worth that contract Danny Gibson just signed 20mil over 5 years. He’s perfect for the Triangle too because the quick passing allows him to avoid being a playmaker, but still gets him into places where he can cause some damage. Possibly less effective outside of LA and the Triangle.
Trevor Ariza - Perfect for the Triangle. One of the best cutters in the league so he’ll be a great fit for the Triangle. He’s also excellent on the fastbreak so again he’s a good fit for the Lakers. He’s a good defender but overrated, still makes way too many silly mistakes and lacks the bulk to defend physical wings. Also lacks some discipline in defending players like Peja. Good defender but not a standout, could become a standout given time though. Needs to improve his jump shot. He’s an excellent fit with the Lakers more than he’s a talented player, great home for him.
Coby Karl - Most Lakers fan I’ve heard talk about him are just hoping he can make the end of the rotation someday. I love watching him play. He’s clearly a coach’s son displaying some incredible intelligence on both ends of the floor. I’d be surprised and disappointed if he didn’t make it as a low level rotation player in this league.
The biggest thing about the Lakers bench is not their individual talents but how well they play together as a unit. A cohesive and complementary of each other they are. That allows them to achieve more than you’d think they should. Phil Jackson deserves a huge amount of credit for molding that into a very solid bench (needs a big now with Turiaf gone).
Daves last blog post..Good Read: LA Times Gasol Report Card
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
wow Steve! you are truly a Laker hater! Your arguments aren’t solid enough Steve. The barely beat Jazz and spurs beat themselves. Well w/e happened lakers got to the finals and other teams didn’t. What do you have against Bynum. Did you watch laker games last year? He is absolutely a stud. Lakers were 1st before they even got Gasol! Bynums post move as grown leaps and bounds and his shot blocking is getting better and better. A 15 an 10 with 2 blks guy makes him a what top 7 center in the league? He has soft hands unlike Kwame so he wont have finishing plays from 4 legit passers on the starting lineup in kobe, fisher, odom, and gasol. He does not HAVE to be a 20/10 guy to win the championship for the lakers. He does not even have to play 40 mins a nite. Also as i said before this is the triangle offense! They don’t need a legit pg running the show but ppl who can consistently make the outside shot. Farmar, Radmonovich, and Vuacic do exactly that. Also how can you say Farmar is a poor mans 2nd string pg! No way, he is a great talent and will be a starter in this league very soon.
I don’t even know what your arguing Steve, surely Lakers get a lot more love then they deserve but Kobe did deserve mvp last year, he does attack the rim a lot which results to loads of calls. Every star in this league gets calls that they shouldn’t. Don’t even get me started on Timmy-D or Ginobli. Thats how the NBA has always been, stars get the iffy calls.
Hey this is how i see it, Lakers were 1st without gasol to start the year and also 1st to finish the year without bynum. They BEAT utah in 6 games, heck they even took the final one in Salt Lake. They beat the best of the west and are getting back a top 7-8 center in the league next year. The very least they will do is achieve the same record as last year (minimum).
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Here’s a fun stat
Like I said earlier Bynum takes 80% of his shots in the paint and makes 70% of them. No reason to repeat that really, I just like saying that. Jermaine meanwhile took 27% of his shots inside (low number) and finished 65% of them (very high number). Here’s the interesting stat - 56% of O Neal’s baskets were assisted on while 58% of Bynum’s baskets were assisted on. Minuscule difference.
That’s a misleading stat. Bynum doesn’t create his own shot in the post and he is reliant on his teammates to create shots for him. Kobe Bryant was the best at it but Derek Fisher was almost as good. They were the two main guys who created far and away more shots for Bynum than anyone else. I find it interesting that Fisher created so much for him because clearly Fisher is largely an average player in this league and he isn’t a playmaking point guard, yet he’s creating a lot of easy baskets for Bynum. The reason is that Bynum doesn’t need top players to create baskets for him, he’s very easy to set up because of the advantages he has physically and his intelligence. He moves extremely well without the ball and he catches anything out of the air because of his great hands and athleticism, from there got excellent balance allowing him to be a great finisher from all types of different angles. You could put him elsewhere and he’d just be productive if not more because he’d get more touches.
Like I said it was a misleading stat. I don’t have a number to back this up but I feel very comfortable saying the overwhelming majority of those non-assisted baskets came off of offensive rebounds and loose balls/broken plays. As I said earlier he’s an incredible rebounder and a top offensive rebounder so he creates shots for himself that way.
So let’s say he has 58% of his shots assisted, that leaves 42% unassisted which are mainly coming off hustle type plays. Now that number, those hustle plays, is about equal (4 to 4.2) to Jermaine’s total scoring in the paint. That’s phenomenal.
Oh that 250% number was a bit sloppy, more like 230%. 9.6ppg to 4.2ppg.
Out of interest of what to expect from Jermaine I went back to some of his pre-injury years and he was scoring about 6ppg inside. He was taking and making roughly the same number of jump shots and interior shots, the difference was he was shooting more shots per game. Jermaine also had a far higher percentage of his baskets assisted upon, in between 65-70%.
Daves last blog post..Bassy Re-Signs With Wolves
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Dave your arguments with numbers is going a little too far. Bottom line is Lakers are team to beat in the West until some other team proves otherwise…
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:59 pm
My time to chip back in, and im just gonna start off simply by saying you CLEARLY do not watch enough Laker games steve. There is a reason its everyone against you. There is a reason that commentators, GMs, coaches, everyone is in love with Bynum. There is a reason Kidd was offered for Bynum, the Lakers turned it down, and many agreed with Kupchak. It’s because this kid has sparkling potential (Laker fans are NOT hyping it up, it’s there and if you watched the Lakers over the first 35 games of last season you would know that.) Absolutely demolishing some quality PFs and Cs on both sides of the floor (Amare included). JO is worse than Kidd at this point in his career, and to compare, at least Kidd isn’t an injury prone piece of garbage like JO. Raps fans should kiss the floor the day they ever got JO and Bargnani for Bynum, right, like that would ever happen. Clearly stats don’t work with you (for unknown reasons), so like I said, Bargnani had a better first season than Kobe. Lakers were only first in the West before Gasol and with Kobe, Odom, and BYNUM. At least if you’re gonna try to defend yourself, don’t go off on random rants. Attack and prove why mine, Dave’s, and Nihal’s arguments aren’t incorrect. Don’t ignore them because they are the surest way for us to know you accept them, you just can’t accept the fact that we’re right. And just for the record, from the beginning of these posts, I was never arguing that Bynum would turn into D12, or Amare, or any top 3 center in the league (even though I do believe he has the potential to be). No, I only wanted you to admit that a player with his abilities, especially on the defensive side of the ball, would propel the Lakers forward and at least add a couple wins to their season total, and give them a better chance at the championship. And as for your comment about Lakers getting lucky to get to the finals, relax, they went 12-3 on their way to the NBA finals. Their one playoff run this year was longer than Jerry Sloan, or the Utah Jazz team you seem to be fawning over has ever had. You better think up some arguments fast, and good ones, because like I said, GMs, coaches, and analysts worldwide all agree, Bynum will be the man in years to come, and he is a BIG piece of their team this year. You’re all by yourself on this one, there’s a reason Kidd for Bynum didn’t go through. Now take a second, take a deep breath, think what i’ve said through, and come back with some CONCRETE arguments to our points, not offhand, nonsense remarks like career averages for a young prospect. Kobe averaged 11, 2.5 reb, and 2 assists. Oh thank god you’re not a GM, because if someone offered you Kobe for Big Z at that point, you probably would’ve snatched that deal up and sent Kobe on his way, citing 2 year averages as your back-up. Give me a break.
July 22nd, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Btw those numbers of 11, 2.5, and 2 for Kobe are over the first 2 years of his career. Big Z at the same time was averaging 14.5 ppg and 9 boards per game over his first 2 years. Give me a break, seriously, early career stats mean jack all, especially for solid prospects with a TON of upside like Bynum who come fresh out of high school.
July 22nd, 2008 at 2:42 pm
you cant have it both ways Adam. Either stats matter, or they dont. You cant argue that his stats early in his career arent indicative of his talent and then come back and argue that because of his stats in 35 games we are supposed to recognize and respect his authority. The stats for Bynum dont lie. He is more Haywood than JO. He is a 0 time allstar, with no history of dominating play or championship potential. And to suggest that because Kobe didnt have big stats in his first year, but then did later will translate in the same for Bynum isnt really accurate- since Kobe is one of the greatest players of alltime, and Bynum has averaged a double double for 35 games? And just for arguments sake- Id take big Z over Bynum too. I doubt that Bynums career will be as good as Z’s.
But where Dave and you are right, is that he is young, 7 ft, and learning the game, getting better each year, and has all the tools to help an already excellent Laker team be even better. Point conceded.
My rants (I like the word you chose, because, well, that’s what they have been today)are with Laker fans and their argument “that with Bynum back next year that they are a lock to win the West.” No matter what the underlying argument is, there is no lock to win a division where 8 teams won 50 games and only 7 wins separated the 1st from the 8th seed.
So, you (and many others)like LA . Gino (and many others)likes NO, and I (and Donnie and Marie) like Utah. Im cool with that. Searching back through the posts, what started this little tirade was, and I quote, your posting comment which read:
“There is no way you, or anyone else, can justify placing Utah 1st.”
followed by the also very friendly, fact based comment of:
“Please, if Utah finishes 1st this year I boldly predict that the Lakers will not make the playoffs. Give me a break man, and get your facts straight.”
You are correct, I should follow the more unbiased, fact based argumentative style that you have demonstrated with such calm, rational, and informative comments like:
“JO is worse than Kidd at this point in his career, and to compare, at least Kidd isn’t an injury prone piece of garbage like JO. Raps fans should kiss the floor the day they ever got JO and Bargnani for Bynum, right, like that would ever happen.”
or the insightful, well researched counterpoint of:
“Oh thank god you’re not a GM, because if someone offered you Kobe for Big Z at that point, you probably would’ve snatched that deal up and sent Kobe on his way, citing 2 year averages as your back-up. Give me a break.”
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