I know, its still early to preview the East, since many free agents still remain unsigned and there is still talk of some teams looking to make some major moves (ie/ McGrady to Detroit etc). However, with the start of summer league action underway, all of the major unrestricted free agents signed, and the Raps all capped-out, its time to look forward to the fall - to get a sense of where this team fits (as it is constructed right now). I recognize that there will still be player movement and changes that will alter how the East looks come October 31st, but that is why this article is called East Preview 1.0 - versions 2.0, 3.0 (and maybe even 4.0) are sure to follow as more signings and trades happen.
Remember that what you rad below is sure to change and is only barring injury. Every year at least one team gets hit “hard” by the injury bug, AND even the best teams in the NBA can end up in the lottery if their superstar spends any significant time on the shelf.
As it stands right now, the Raptors are a top 5 team in the East, with the potential to win 50 games, and make some noise come the playoffs. BUT if you think of the East in terms of 3 tiers, the Raptors are in the second tier, with a whole lot of other teams and not really a championship contender as they are currently constructed.
Tier 1 - the Cream of the Crop:
- These are teams who are a lock to win 50 games + and contend - not only for the East - but for the NBA title as well.
- In the Western Conference, one could argue that as many as 6 teams fit this criteria. In the East there are only two teams: Boston and Detroit
Tier 2 - Good but not Great
- These are teams who are a lock to make the playoffs in the East simply by playing .500 basketball. At least 1 and probably as many as 3 of these teams will win 50 games next year.
- They might cause some problems for the tier 1 teams in the playoffs but only under *special circumstances* (like Lebron scoring 30 straight points against Detroit 2 years ago) do they make it to the conference finals or the the NBA finals.
- In the Western Conference, one could argue that as many almost half the conference fits this category and ultimately some teams in the West who are this good will miss the playoffs.
- In the East there are Five teams who are “one guy away” from being in tier one: Orlando, Cleveland, Toronto, Phily, and Washington
Tier 3 - Decent but not Good
- These are teams who are in the process of turning things around and on the way up probably not good enough to play .500 basketball. However, at least 1 of these teams will make the playoffs next year and maybe 2 or 3 of these teams will if some other teams experience some significant injuries 50 games next year.
- In the East there are Six teams who on the rise but not quite there: Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Indiana, New York, Charlotte, and Milwaukee
- If I had to pick one, right now, to make the playoffs I’m going with the Knicks.
TO RECAP - here are the seeds:
1 - Boston Celtics
You really have to give the champs credit for not only winning 66 games in the regular season last year but for also rising above a sub-par first 2 rounds of the playoffs to fairly easily dispose of both the Pistons and Lakers. Even if Posey resigns elsewhere, this team remains relatively unchanged from last year and will have lots of veterans hoping to be released come February with the hopes of signing on with the Celts for the veterans minimum. And while some intensity drop-off is to be expected, even if they loose 10 more games than last year (which is hard to do in the NBA without significant injuries), this team still wins 56 games and at worst the #2 seed in the East. Until someone else steps up and makes a major move, they have to be the favorites to repeat as champs in the East and probably overall as well.
2 - Detroit Pistons
People often forget that the second best team in the NBA last year was Detroit- not LA, PHE, NO, DAL, or SA. This is a team that won 59 games last year and made it to their 6th straight conference finals. Even if they change nothing other than the coach - you can expect this team to win somewhere between 52-60 games on experience, grit, and talent alone. However, Joe Dumars is not happy with how content this team has become - so, in addition to more playing time for young guys like Amir johnson and Rodney Stuckey, I think you can expect to see at least one of last years starters (and probably two) moved in a big-time move that brings back some superstar power to the Motorcity. With a new coach and a new “go-to guy” Detroit will loose some ground in the regular season and probably only win somewhere between 47-54 games, but you can expect them to come out hungrier and angrier than ever in the playoffs, AND after having time to gel as a team - I expect them to be very dangerous in the playoffs. In fact, its hard to find a safer bet in the NBA than this: Detroit will make it to the Eastern conference Finals.
3 - Cleveland Cavaliers
Any team that has Lebron on it has a chance to win every night. he single-handedly took this team to the finals 2 years ago and almost beat the Celtics by himself last year. Given the fact that guys like Joe Smith, Wallace, etc will have had some time to settle in from the big trade - and that half this team comes off the cap next summer, I expect that even Danny Ferry couldn’t mess this one up, AND by the trade deadline you should see some more star power in Cleveland. Having Varajeo from Day one this year will also help. This team should win 50 games this year and is the most legitimate of the contenders for the #3 seed in the East. If Detroit shakes things up and takes some time to “gel” Cleveland could wind up as high as the number 2 seed in the East.
4 - Washington Wizards
You have to think that a healthy Jamison, Arenas, and Butler are good for 50 wins right? I’m just not sure you will ever see all 3 of these guys play at the same time! But if you do, and you combine that will an up and comer like Blatche, and a GREAT coach (Eddie Jordan might be the most underrated coach in the NBA) this team should win their division and somewhere between 48-54 games claiming at worst the #4 seed (as the division winner) and a first round match -up with someone other that Cleveland - which is certain to make Agent 0 scream “hibachi” in excitement at the thought of finally winning a series.
5 -Toronto Raptors
Sorry Raptors Fans. As you know there is no one out there more pro JO than the Dr., but as currently constructed I think this team wins 46-51 games (I think it could be more but Smitch is good for 3-5 extra losses a year due to poor timeouts, no plays called out of time outs, poor clock managements, and strange substitutions- not to mention unexplainable starting lineups). That should be enough for the 4th best record in the East BUT since they are in the same division as the Celtics, if they don’t get 3rd, 5th is where they will land. I think this is the best Raps team we have every had in this city and feel they could make a run to the conference finals (with a little luck) but without a turnaround year from Il Mago or some new, crazy, unheard of role player emerging into the starting lineup (a la Jamario Moon) - this team is likely to improve but still find itself falling short come playoff time. Especially with so many “unproven winners” on this team. Most of these guys have only lost (and in a really bad way) in the playoffs. More veteran leadership is needed here - as well as an “Xs and Os” assistant coach who sleeps with his clipboard and dreams of plays that attract the double in the low post and result in wide open 3s for Kapono and Calderon coming out of EVERY timeout and stoppage of play.
6 - Orlando Magic
If you had to pick a team to take a “step back” in 2008 I think its the Magic. Unlike many other experts who think the Pietrus signing was a bonus for this team - I think they had more pressing needs. I’m not sure that any combination of Lee (who they drafted in the first round this year), JJ Reddick (who they drafted in the first round two years ago) and or Peitrus will fill the void a the 2 spot, especially when you consider that signing Pietrus used up the money they needed to resign Dooling. Jameer Nelson is a decent NBA point guard (who made TJ and Jose look stupid last year in the playoffs) but not great, and this is a real area of need for this team. Combine the lack of depth with the reality that Hedo had a career year last year (and so defenses will be looking for him this year) and that Lewis is just not an NBA max money guy - and what you have is a capped out team with lots of role players and one really good player in Howard. SVG may be the best coach in the East but guys only like getting yelled at for so long before it grows old. AND with Miami, Washington, and Atlanta expected to be better this year, Orlando will loose some division games that were “gimmies” last season. I expect Orland to win 45 games this year and compete for their division but this is a really a 6 seed in the East at best (maybe a 5 seed with some breaks or a 4 seed if they can win their division). This team is just not that good.
7 - Philadelphia 76ers
Lots of people are in love with the Sixers right now and they seem to think that adding Brand to this team instantly makes them the best front court in the East and the 3rd best team in the conference. AND while they gave Detroit some issues in the playoffs last year lets not forget some very important points like:
- Any team that has Samuel Dalembert at the 5 can’t be in the discussion for the best front court in the conference. I mean really, Dalembert and Brand over Bosh and O’Neal? Heck I’d take Bosh and Rasho.
- Iggy may be a nice little player BUT he is not a great little player. He laid a big FAT egg last year in the playoffs against Detroit. His career is destined for more a MoPete role now that Philly actually has a legit scorer. Lets not forget that Doug Christie scored 20+ a game in the Raps early years when they had no talent.
This team won 40 games last year. I expect them to win as many 10 more games, BUT a 10 game turnaround in the NBA is huge - especially when you think that Brand is the only addition. More than likely, this team wins 44-48 games and is the 7 seed in the East.
8 - New York Knicks
Believe it or not, picking the 8 seed in the East might be the most difficult prediction in basketball. You have to think that Indy, Milwaukee, and Charlotte are better teams today than 2 months ago and have really good coaches in Larry Brown, Scott Skiles, and Jim O’Brien who if nothing else will demand their players to compete every night. Each roster also has a good deal of talent and should be much more competitive. Likewise, Jersey, Miami, and Chicago who appeared to have started towards rebuilding still have enough talent that they could be competitive for the eight spot. And lets not forget that to get the 8 spot last year in the east only required 37 wins.
BUT, if I had to pick one team to make a turn around I’m going to go with Mike Dantoni and the NYK. Even if they don’t make another move between now and opening day, with Duhon at the point, Z-bo and Curry in the paint, Crawford, and Galineri on the wings and guys like Lee and Robinson off the bench - I think Dantoni’s system (and more importantly his basketball philosophy) will take the negativity out of the dressing room and make the game “fun” for his players to play again. And that alone, I think, is worth a good 6-8 wins this year. However, I think it is very likely that Donnie Walsh will move some more bodies out and bring in some more run and gunners - and while Boston and Detroit will still be the first choices of veterans looking for the minimum to play in the East, I suspect that by 2009, NYK will be back on the radar as a desirable destination for NBAers to play and have fun.
As always, I’m the Doctor, I’m standing in the key and Im planning on taking a charge.
phdsteve
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July 14th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
So the Raptors take a step forward even though their only addition is Jermaine O’Neal but the Sixers and Magic take a step back even though their only addition is Elton Brand and Pietrus? Last year the Magic team came together and this year they’ll build on that experience, with a coach like SVG you have to expect them to improve, not decline.
Nobody’s arguing that Iggy is a superstar but he did carry the team last year along with Miller and Dally. You have to give them credit for that AND rank them higher than the Raptors, I think this pick is the homer in you speaking.
You’re right, it is way too early to be making a post like this but I feel you, it is summertime.
Arsenalists last blog post..Bryan Colangelo should be more like David Morway
July 14th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
ouch! come on Arsenalist, cut me some slack! Ive been called a lot of things, but Im not sure Ive ever been called a homer (see open letter to rob babcock and trade bosh now articles for more proof).
all homerism aside, would I have ranked the raps as the 5th seed if I was a homer? really? Id be talking about how great thou art and have them at the 3 or even 2 seed- but lets be serious- the Raps are a better team today, especially defensively than when last year ended. And I do believe they were like 14th? in defensive efficiency last year in the NBA. You have to agree that adding JO should push them into the top10 and with out losing any offensive fire power and that should be good enough to see them pick up a little bot of ground in the east.
besides all the teams that I put into the second teir are pretty much interchangble in the seeds 3-7. I thought that was clear in the article- and that the ranking of TO at 5 and Phily at 7 is my opinion as to how they’ll play out.
Over and above that, the raps were a 46 win team 2 years ago that took a step backwards last year after their feel good year- whereas Orlando and Phily are both coming off their feel good year and are destined to stumble a little. believe me, no one will be taking them lightly when they come into town this year.
And the reason for Orlando’s decline is even more evident as pointed out above. And I know that was a typo when you put Pietrus in the same sentence as key acquisitions with Bosh and Brand. One mans junk is…well in this case…another mans junk.
And while Brand is awesome and could see the 6ers rise as high as the 2 or 3 seed as some experts are positing, Im just not sold on Philly. I see them more as a collection of parts that can all be good playing on bad teams but none that really have any gusto to make them great. Its not like they were a 45 win team that added Brand- they were .500 after having the season of their lives. If I remember correctly Brand has only had 1 winning season his whole career (that is one season where his team has won more games than it lost, Andre Miller has never made it out of the first round in Cleveland or Denver, Dalembert and good have never been used in the same sentence other than by Leo Rautins and can we really trust anything he says, and the good youngs of Iggy, Williams, and Thad are just that- young. Im just not sold.
July 14th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Great way to generate interest. But my gut feeling is the Raptor’s are in tough. I would not be surprised if they are in a dog fight for the 7/8 spot and once again it will be one and done.
So time will tell !!
July 14th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
i don’t think the raptors will be a 7/8, my money is on 6, if things come together. philly should be ahead of the raptors (couple games, not leaps and bounds) - and orlando is already ahead, they should push that further.
philly did over achieve, but unlike the raptors, they have really tough/gritty players. the raptors over achieved by shooting the rock like champs. that is hard to duplicate, on a year-to-year basis. brand just adds to the teams toughness, they wont be easy to play. 2/3 in the east is a massive reach for me.
maybe i’m just massively biased, but i really think pietrus was a serious pick up for orlando. they now have a guy who can play shut down defense on the perimeter, then if anything gets by, they have howard to swat guys into the 3rd row. he can score too…i think i’m taking crazy pills, cause i feel i’m alone in my obsessiveness for the guy.
sadly, a lot of the teams that were below the raptors got better this offseason, some more so then others. so it will be a real cat fight in the east, 500 may not even get a team into the playoffs.
my east prediction, in seed order:
Boston
Detroit
Orlando
Cleveland
Washington
Philadelphia
Toronto
Atlanta (if they bring back both smith and childress) otherwise Chicago
July 14th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
I know we hear this every year but as currently constructed I think the Pistons slide down a couple spots.
I also see Clevland as a 5-8 seed with all the teams in the east getting better below them and them stuck with bad salaries.
I think Toronto is going to surprise a lot of teams this year with a great offence and much improved defence (if we just had a coach)
Here are my seedings as of now ( I see the Bulls moving up if they can get a big man and I am also assuming the Heat sign a few decent players as there roster needs bodies.
1. C’s
2. Raps
3. Magic
4. Pistons
5. Wizzards
6. 76ers
7. Heat
8. Cavs
9. Pacers
10. Hawks
11. Bucks
12. Bulls
13. Bobcats
14. Knicks
15. Nets
July 15th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Wow.
Hey, RapsFan, you say they will be 6th, but you list them 7th. Freudian?
I agree with John. If no other moves are made with this squad, the Raptors are fighting for a playoff spot. Depth will be an issue. I truly believe Jose will hit a wall again in February/March, and you have to believe one of the two bigs will go down. Our lack of depth for either of those situations is appalling.
And I really have to disagree about this being the best team Toronto has ever seen. They will have a tough time matching those Oak/Vince/AD/Alvin years.
One guy does not a dynasty make.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:41 am
jebus…i guess i said 6, then started listing, and they ended up 7th…egg on my face!
i have to agree with AltRaps, that Raptors team that got within a game of getting to the eastern finals was the best one. you forgot to mention jyd, he was crucial imho.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Unbelievable that people think the Raptors are going to rise in the ranks this year with the shit roster being cobbled together….unbelievable….NO depth…massive redundancy at the power forward position….no perimeter defense, no one who can create off the dribble…no coach worth shit….no depth…NO DEPTH….fan base so stupid they think Joey Graham can be traded for Cory Maggette….
The only good thing about this team is that Darrick Martin is not on it!!!!!
July 15th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
I’m going to roll with power rankings instead of seed rankings for the playoffs. Detroit should be the second seed but they’re certainly not near the top of my list as potential victors in the East so I’m going to roll with power rankings of how likely a team is to win the East next season. This list does not take into account future moves, just an early look at where I think everyone is.
(1) Boston
(2) Phily
(3) Cleveland
(4) Orlando
(5) Detroit
(6) Toronto
(7) Washington
(8) Miami
In terms of playoff seeds I’d place Toronto fifth or sixth because I don’t have much faith in the Cavs winning big in the regular season. They’ll likely play Orlando again or maybe Phily in the first round. Either would be favoured ahead of the Raptors.
Another first round exit on the cards? More likely than not.
Daves last blog post..Game Time: Milwaukee vs Memphis
July 15th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
wow, when I wrote this article I totally thought people would be angry that I had the Raps at #5 because they thought it was too low and I expected most of the opposition to be about Washington being rated so high- but there has been none of that?
I dont get all the Philly stuff- since the Raps are more talented at every position (including the bench) than Philly- with the exception of Iggy. This team has to prove it and earn their respect. I mean they added Brand- ok- but its not like they added KG and Ray Allen to a team that already had Pierce. Its time to slow down the Philly bandwagon. I repeat: Andre Miller, Sam Dalembert, Louis Williams, Reggie Evans….etc…
I also dont get the love affair with Orlando(is it one of those love your kidnapper things?) I mean really- they won 50 games last year but in their division they played a beat up washington, and 3 bottom feeders in miami, atlanta, and charlotte- who combined only won 80 games. they wont get that many easy wins this year. They are a team with NO depth- they have no bench- they have a sub par point guard- no legitimate 2- a 3 in Hedo who has had 1 good year in the last decade- a 4 in lewis who is overpaid and under produces- and their big addition is Pietrus. I mean come on. I can understand if your opinion is that Phily or Washington, or Orlando is a more lefit 4 or 5 seed than Toronto- because thats your opinion -but to suggest that this Raps team wont be better is pretty ludacrious. weither or not you like JO- they traded traded their back up centre and back up point guard for a 20-10-3 guy who is one of the best defensive players in the game. Only in Toronto is that a bad thing?- where an addition like this makes us a worse team? who is now fighting for the 7 or 8 seed in a conference where it only took 37 wins to make the playoffs? come on.
I mean really, dont just post some crazy hater mail- back it up- at least rank the seeds as you see them falling- and if you are really so sure it will play out that way then call out some numbers for wins and losses as well (even if its a range, like team a will win between 45-49 games).
Lets hear what people think about how the East will play out- instead of all this angry silliness.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
as a side conversation - here might be another point of issue. Lots of people tend to think the Raps will be one and done in the playoffs. I tend to agree that the team- as constructed- isnt quite ready to make a deep playoff run BUT here’s the question: of the teams projected to make the playoffs (either by my account or your own) is there any team you think the Raps can beat- or is it simply that they are good enough to beat anybody 6 or higher (since we know they arent getting the 1 or 2 seed)? thoughts?
July 15th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
good question steve, from your list, i think the raptors can beat the wizards and the knicks. they might even be able to take out philly, as it is their first year playing with brand. i still don’t think they can beat orlando, and the rest of the lot.
as far as the feedback on your article, placing the raptors in a 5-7 is about where i think they will land, depending on how other teams do, injuries and so on
they are improved with o’neal in the middle, but the bench is shorter. frankly, i don’t see that as a big deal because the bench did fuck all towards the end of the season, and there is no real reason to expect otherwise this year.
in regards to orlando, yes they did play in a crap division, yes they did get easy wins that may not come their way this season, but they also upgraded at 2. if you really think pietrus isn’t an upgrade over evans or bogans, then i don’t know what to tell you. the guy is not as good a shooter, is just as athletic and loads better defensively.
philly really turned it on in the second half, and gave the pistons a headache in the first round. they are tough and athletic, and added a brand, who if healthy, will improve them.
you can expect atlanta to be much better with bibby at the helm from training camp (and if they can keep smitch and childress).
the bulls should be better, but i also thought they would a top team last season, so i don’t really have a read on them.
the heat wont be good, beasley wont make them a playoff team, i’m sorry.
i’m not really going out on a limb, but charlotte and the pacers are my sleepers for next season. they can’t be slept on at all, they both improved.
July 15th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
ok, raps fan, I’ll leave Pietrus alone. you may be right..he may be pretty good now that he is outside of GS.
and you are correct that the bench last year didnt really do its job near the end of the year- but shouldnt adding bargnani and moon to the bench- and having one of bosh or JO on the floor at all times alleviate that problem? \
and I with you that the Pacers could be pretty good next year and surprise some people.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
it should alleviate some of the problems, but i really don’t know how bargnani will do next season. if he comes out and lives up to # 1 overall billing, the bench is fine…otherwise meh.
i’m really concerned with how smitch is going to utilize this team, not sold on him in the half-court.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
The eight seed in the East is going to be up for grabs. There’s a good number of teams shooting for that.
I like Indiana too, I have trouble imagining TJ Ford not getting his team to playoffs. He’s too good of a floor general not to get the most of out his supporting cast which is good news for Granger and Co.
Milwaukee is a possibility. I’d be move favourable of their chances if Ramon Sessions was starting and Mo Williams (doesn’t have a point guard bone in his body) went back to his Vinnie Johnson role that he plays so well. RJ will be a boost on the wings and Bogut is improving inside. Their defense is a concern but it really shouldn’t have been as bad as it was last season so improvement should come.
Atlanta are a decent club. They’ve got some good individual talent but they’re a horribly unbalanced ball club. Mike Bibby won’t do much good for him, he’s the worst defensive starting point guard in the league and costs them far more than he gives them. Their record was pretty much the same with Johnson/Lue at the point and I don’t see Bibby being the reason for that changing. They’ve got young talent so they could take a step forward but I’m not sure where that comes from or what that looks like. Their coach is one of the worst in the league, he cost them 10-15 wins last season and will do so again next year if he doesn’t let them run more.
Charlotte are interesting. I think their season depends on Sean May and whatever help the other bigs are - it was a huge weakness for the club last year, the worst collection of bigs in the league. Emeka gets no help down there.
I don’t see Chicago making a move. They haven’t gotten better (yet). Rose isn’t ready to be dominant as a rookie. No roster moves elsewhere plus in Vinnie Del Negro they have a rookie coach.
I don’t see New York making the playoffs. Coaching wasn’t much of a problem last year, their unbalanced and dysfunctional roster was. I’m not sure how much of a difference D’Antoni can make. They should win a few more games but the playoffs is a reach for them.
New Jersey are too young and lack the quality needed. Someone there needs to make a big jump (c’mon Yi!) to get them back in the race.
Which brings me to Miami. They have hands down the best trio of players of any of those squads in Wade, Marion, Beasley. I’m a big Mario Chalmers fan, I expect him to start and do a fine job next season. After that they have Haslem and Blount and James Jones (ridiculous contract but not at least not guaranteed). The team still needs one or two bargain basement signings to round out their bench which is easily achievable.
That’s why I’m picking Miami to win the 8th seed.
Daves last blog post..Magic Sign Anthony Johnson
July 15th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Lots of good insight Dave!
I cant get over the response to Philly in the 7 seed! tonight at school, lots of folks had a lot to say about my seeding being a little crazy. thats cool. Maybe I do need to rethink Orlando in 6 and Philly in 7, especially if so many people disagree so strongly….however, Im still think toronto is the better team…maybe that does make me a homer.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:34 am
I think the raps have the best squad they’ve had in years. With Bosh and ONeil getting so much attention down low, high % shooters like Kapono, Parker and Calderon will knock down more shots.
If Bargs can average 12-15 ppg and play some decent D off the bench, then Bosh and ONeil will be able to rest a bit longer. I say the raps will be 2nd or 3rd come playoff time.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:28 am
Steve, looks like i am not the only one disagreeing with you ranking Philly at the 7th seed. As i mentioned in class Elton Brand is exactly what this team needs to get to the next level. Their best post player last year was Andre Miller! There is no way this team should have been in the playoffs even in the much weaker Eastern conference. However, Cheeks did wonders with this team. If a team that young is the 7th best defensive team in the league, then the coach deserves all the credit. I did a little research to prove my point:
After starting the year a miserable 5-13 they obviously got it together finishing the year 35-29. Your argument of Andre Igoudala being soft in the playoffs is quite week. They took 2 games from Detroit which was predicted to be a hands down sweep. Detroit has been one of the top defensive teams in the league for many years now. How can you expect Igi to do much when his next best scoring option is Andre Miller who is to busy worrying about guarding Billups in the low post. Igi is a legit 20/5/5 guy who was 3rd in the league in steals last year. I certainly agree he is not a Batman to any team but he certainly is a Robin and Elton Brand is definitely capable of being his partner in crime.
Moving on to Dalembert: You seemed insulted when i said he is one of the best defensive centers in the east. He finished 9th in rebounding to go with 4rth in shots blocked! I don’t even see any room for argument, he ate up 33 mins a game shot 50% from the floor and averaged 10.5/10.5 with 2.3 blocks! I agree hes injury prone, but in my defense who isn’t. There cannot be an argument based on being injury prone because that simply cannot be predicted. I can argue the same for JO going down 20 games in or Agent 0’s Knee giving in, etc, etc…
My point is that is AI2 does decide to sign with the Phillies then they are a top 5 team in East. i still think they are not at that Boston and Detroit level that some people are so crazily predicting but however i do think they are right in the mix with the Cavs and Raptors. I think they are 1 good shooter (Ahem Kyle Korver) away from being a top tier team in the east. If somehow they can do something to get a good shooter in there then look out.
Oh and for you putting the Knicks at 8th is just a joke. Zack Randolf’s and Eddy Curry’s defensive motivation + D’antoni’s lack of defensive philosophy = great highlight plays on sportscentre by Jamal Crawford and a team that allows 110ppg a night. If i had to make a choice for that 8th spot, it would have to be the Hawks (if J-smooth returns). They have way too much talent in JJ and Horford along with the 2 joshes if they return to not make the playoffs. I agree with you on Woodson having to to go for that to happen.
Great column and keep up the good work, looking forward to your western conference rankings…
July 16th, 2008 at 8:52 am
I figured sooner or later someone would comment on my Knicks in the 8th seed posting! My point here is simply, take your pick- I think that a strong argument could be made for any of the teir 3 teams to take the 8th seed. I personally like NY - for the reasons stated above.
I can concede to many of the Phily points being raised, but I simply cant go along with the dalembert as a top centre in the East discussion. My conscience just wont let me. Did you see Rasho make him look silly in the Slovenia vs Canada game this morning? I mean, Dalembert is a nice centre- but ONeil is a 6 time all start..yada yada yada. Suggesting that Dalembert and Brand are a better front court (or even equal to) Bosh and JO is like suggesting that Shredded Wheat is comparable to Lucky Charms. I mean, I know lots of people eat Shredded Wheat (and they all their reasons) but Lucky Charms are magically delicious!
If the argument is that Phily is a better team for than Toronto and should be seeded higher, what is that argument based on?
The best player on either team -right now- is Bosh.
While I can agree that Brand is amazing- the second best player on either team is JO.
FYI haters, brand missed more games last year than JO- so put the “injury card away.” JOs career #s since 2000 when he became a starter in this league are 19-10-2.5, and making the all star team 6 times. In comparison, since 2000, Brands #s are also impressive also averaging 20-10-2 and consistently playing as one of the best and most underrated pfs in the league. Since their numbers are practically the same, lets examine the difference that each player has had on their teams.
Since 2000, JOs team has had 6 winning seasons, including a 61 win season in 03-03 and only finished under .500 in the last 2 seasons when JO was -as so many people have point out- injured. Since 2000, JOs teams record is: 348-308 (40 games over .500) In comparison, Brand’s team since 2000 has only finished over .500 ONCE. Since 2000 Brands team’s record is: 256-400 (thats 146 games under .500 and almost 100 losses more over an 8 year span- or the equivalent of 15 losses more a season on average). In his one playoff appearance Brand did well leading his team to a second round loss to Pheonix. In comparison, JO in his 6 appearances with Indy led his team to the conference finals and more than 20 playoff victories. If Brand is so good, shouldnt he also make his team better? I know he is only one player- but shouldnt a DOMINANT PF like Brand, a franchise guy, elevate the level of play from guys around him? I mean Kobe consistently takes garbage teams to the playoffs- as does Lebron- heck, even KG in Minny took some brutal teams to the playoffs. How can this guy be in the conversation of greatness when his teams NEVER win?
Brand is certainly the third best player on either team- but from here it is a matter of choice. Id personally take Calderon over either Miller or Iggy.
So out of the top 4 players on either team Toronto has 3.
Lots of people argue about the upside of Thad or Louis Williams, but upside is just that -until it is realized- and if we are going on one season’s stats- then the argument could be made that Bargnani also has tons of upside and call me a homer if you will but Ill take the potential of a 7 footer who can shoot the 3 and take guys off the dribble over either of those guys.
No one on Philly can shoot- that is why Miller is their top post guy- since he cant shoot a jumper (side note: what does that say about your centre when your PG is your top post guy)- where as the Raps have some of the leagues top shooters in Kapono and Calderon, and above average shooters in AP and Andrea off the bench.
Reggie Evans and the energy guys on Philly get canceled out by the Moons and Humprhies on Toronto.
In short, these teams are fairly even- but Toronto has the better players and the better talent- and having played .500 or better for 2 straight years (where as no on one this Philly team has played on a over .500 team consistently in their careers) - gives Toronto the advantage.
I know, on paper, the addition of Brand to Phily is sexy. BUT on paper, the numbers best illustrate why Toronto is the better team.
sorry- the culture of losing, only breeds more losing. Teams have to learn how to win.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Call me crazy, but I have a weird feeling that Joey Graham is going to emerge out of the darkness and take the starting 3 spot job from Jamario Moon this year.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:12 am
you’re crazy.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:13 am
just kidding.
this is the enigma that is Joey Graham. when he is on, man he looks good…but then he just disappears for days, weeks, months at a time.
he has all the tools… and Id love to see it…but I think that when the season starts, Joey will go back to being Joey.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:29 am
when you break it down like that steve, yes, the raptors have more talent than philly, i wont dispute that. what i will dispute talent wise is saying moon and humphries cancel out evans, young, is a serious reach. i would trade moon and hump for evans in a second, no questions.
a couple things that can’t really be quantified by stats though:
- cheeks is a better coach then smitch. not leaps and bounds better, but better (maybe good for up to 5 wins).
- as a whole unit, philly seemingly plays with more grit, toughness and athleticism. hustling wins you key possessions/points that win you games (anyone other than arsenalist remember varajeo dunking over bosh to win the game for the cavs last season?)
July 16th, 2008 at 10:32 am
i also think i have to be clear about ranking washington/philly ahead of the raptors:
i wasn’t implying that they will finish something like 10-13 games ahead, i think it will be a fairly tight race, maybe 5-8 games seperating the 5 through 7th seeds.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:07 am
fair enough. But does Varajeo make that dunk if JO is there?
July 16th, 2008 at 11:20 am
he definitely doesn’t. hopefully that rubs off on the rest of the lot.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Phily have a very interesting team.
Dalembert is a very good center and one of the best interior defenders in the league. He’s their anchor and the biggest reason why Phily ranked 8th in defensive rating. Sammy is also a quality rebounder and his athleticism makes him difficult offensively on the glass and on pick and rolls, similar to Tyson Chandler.
Andre Miller is coming of an excellent season. He was more important to Phily than Igoudala, especially in the playoffs where he played Billups to a standstill (Calderon just got outplayed by Nelson). He is the second best point guard in the East right now. His defense separates him from Calderon.
Iggy is a nice supporting act. Top defensive wing. Very good playmaker. Great vision, good passer, good handle, very good penetrator. He adds an all-round game and provides a lot of balance to the Sixers to the offense.
Thaddeus Young is a quality young player. I’m not sure what his potential is like because he does very little with the ball in his hands so far. But what we do know is that he’s a very talented defensive player, great finisher in the open court, very smart, moves well without the ball offensively, and he rebounds very well. He’s also versatile enough to play both forward spots. With Thaddeus starting at small forward … that would give the Sixers two very imposing big physical athletic defensive wings. That’s something I’m very interested in seeing and I believe there’s a lot of value in that combination defensively.
Louis Williams is another youngster with good potential. But we’re forgetting potential so what is he? Well he’s one of the better 6th men in the league and he can really score the basketball (11.5ppg in 23mpg). He’s a good defender and a solid floor general.
Then we’re getting to another huge area of Phily’s strength - their backup big men. Reggie Evans, Marresse Speights and Jason Smith give Phily 3 legit NBA big men off the bench. Speights is one of the more talented players in the draft and shouldn’t be slept upon, he could do great things. Smith is a 7 footer who can play like a guard, only he rebounds like a 7 footer should. Evans is just a horse, a garbage man who provides toughness and physical play and is one of the best rebounders in the league.
Phily lack some quality to backup the wings. Willie Green is an alright 9th man but he’s a bit small for my liking. They need to address that and they should be able to seeing it’s the easiest position in the league to fill.
Phily one of the best rebounding teams in the league. One of the better defensive teams in the league. Now let’s add Elton Brand. A legit big man who likes physical play. They’re not starting a 220lb rookie at power forward now. Elton’s shotblocking, post defense and rebounding will help Phily’s D to the next level. It also allows Thaddeus to move out to the perimeter where he can do more damage defensively.
Phily’s biggest problem offensively was in the halfcourt. They had no go-to scorer and no post presence. They do now. Elton Brand gives them that. With Iggy and Miller on the perimeter they have a lot of creativity, penetration and good passing in the halfcourt. Most of the Sixers players move very well off the ball which again will help them in the halfcourt. Phily is also tremendous at forcing turnovers, ranking second in the league, which gives them a deadly running game and a lot of easy baskets.
Phily have two major flaws right now holding them back (1) They don’t really have a second scorer. Iggy is more suited to being a third guy, and Miller the fourth guy. (2) Outside shooting, they lack shooters in a big way.
Daves last blog post..Trade: Clippers-Nuggets (Camby)
July 16th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I ranked Phily second on my list of contenders for the East so I’ll explain why.
Firstly I don’t think much of Detroit. They’re weak and there for the taking. They’re not in my top four so that leaves three spots open … and I rate Orlando, Phily and Cleveland as the three best teams behind Boston.
The reason I ranked Phily second was because I think they matchup very well with those teams. I think Orlando and Cleveland matchup better with Boston but there’s no team in the East other than Boston that I don’t favour Phily in a playoff series. So I’m going to roll with Phily as number two but those three could be interchangeable.
Phily already matched up with Cleveland extremely well. They lost the season series 1-2 but two of those losses were by 1 point and 3 points, and their win was a 6 point win. So you’re talking about a very even series. They also held LeBron James to 25ppg which is pretty good. Dalembert can defend Big Z. Phily are good enough on the backboards and defensively to battle Cleveland. Now you add a player of Elton Brand’s caliber, I see that as being the difference maker between the two sides.
Orlando lost against Detroit because their backcourt couldn’t handle the Pistons’ backcourt. Phily are going to have Iggy and Miller controlling the game and possibly deciding the series. The second big swing matchup is at power forward with Rashard Lewis and Elton Brand. McDyess/Maxiell caused Lewis a lot of problems by being physical and beating him in the post … just think what Elton could do. Lewis can do the same on the other end but I’m taking the guy that’s shooting 6 footers over the guy shooting 22 footers. Orlando do have one huge card to play though and that’s Dwight Howard. Dalembert has improved greatly at defending the post and handling physical players over the past 12 months but Dwight still causes him the world of trouble. Since Orlando’s backcourt failed to establish Howard against Detroit, I’m having trouble giving them a deciding factor type of vote (which I like to give to the best player in the series when he has a good matchup and the teams are close). I think Phily pull this one out.
I also think Elton Brand is enough of an addition to take them past Detroit. As for a Raptors series, I think Elton and Dalembert can slow down Bosh/Jermaine enough for their superior perimeter player and superior bench to be a deciding factor.
I don’t think Phily have a huge advantage over any of these teams. In fact it’s very close. But I do think they’re slightly ahead right now and should be slightly favoured.
Daves last blog post..Trade: Clippers-Nuggets (Camby)
July 16th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Oh one other thing I forgot to mention in my rambles …. I think Sam Mitchell is a better coach than Mo Cheeks.
Mo has a very dubious track record (in both Phily and Portland) and the decisions he made to turn around Phily’s campaign should have been made in training camp. That wasn’t Mo’s ingenuity, that was Mo making a very bad and obvious mistake and failing to correct it for a few months. Still he made the correction which counts for a lot in my books, so maybe he’s improving as a head coach. I’m looking forward to finding out in the future.
Daves last blog post..Trade: Clippers-Nuggets (Camby)
July 16th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Rod, I share your optimism of Joey Graham but not to that extent. I picked him to challenge Moon for the starting spot this year and so far in the summer league he’s playing pretty well, nothing great but good.
I’m counting on him to come into training camp motivated and hungry to snatch himself a significant spot on this team. I think he smells the NBDL and Europe more than anyone and knows what he has to do to get back in the good graces of the Raptors.
On another note, Delfino’s signing in Russia and I’m surprised that he got so little NBA interest.
Arsenalists last blog post..Roko Ukic sale and some potpourri including Dalembert being kicked out
July 16th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
please we are arguing about the likes of JO, Brand, Bosh, Jose, Igi! Please nobody bring up Joey Graham again. I agree with Dave on the Dalembert part. He is hands down one of the best defensive centers in the league. Also that Philly’s biggest weakness was that go to low post scorer which they do have now.
Steve you saying JO is better then Elton Brand at this point of their careers is just crazy talk. Elton Brand has played in the west which has always been a stronger division then the East (even more dominant for last 2 years). JO has played with the likes of all stars like Brad Miller, Reggie Miller, and Ron Artest. How can you compare his supporting cast since 2000 to Elton Brands. Corey Maggette? Potent scorer but does he even know he has to play D once in a while. Chris Kaman? He only figured it out last year and that only because he got all the touches with Brand out. Oh an how could i forget Sam Cassell…
Since 2000 clippers have been stuck with elite teams in their division in Lakers, Suns, warriors (recently), heck even the Kings were amazing in the early on in the decade (Webber era). Compare this with the division the pacers have been playing in. Detroit has obviously been very dominant for most of the decade, but Cavs? Bull? and Bucks? In my mind Elton Brand is a better player then JO as of now.
Don’t get me wrong guys i am a huge Raptors fan and hope JO regains his 18/9 with 2.5 blks form. I just believe Elton Brand giving his 20/10 is much more of a sure bet. Once again i don’t think Philly is a top tier team in the East like Dave here above thinks. However, they are going to finish in the top 5. They are 1 solid shooter away from taking the next step.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
lol @ nihal
i feel you, but it would be a boon if graham could actually consistently perform this season. the wing wouldn’t be as weak as it potentially is now.
dave: i agree with your assessment of philly, but i’m not sure about 2nd in the east…still think someone has to take that detroit, they aren’t going anywhere, although michael curry is their coach. not so sure a rookie head coach is the way to go with a veteran team constructed like those guys. he is clearly dumars puppet (aka play the youngins - stucky, johnson, maxiel more).
July 16th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Lots of nice points rolling around here- but Nihal, East Coast/ West coast…say what you want- he still is 150 games under .500 and guys like Kobe and KG also playing in that crazy western conference took worse teams to the playoffs. And besides even if he doesnt make the post season there is no excuse for losing that many games. I didnt even include 1999 in that analysis where he played in the east for the bulls. Oh ya, and in 2000 in the east he helped the bulls loose 60 games. oouch!
Boy, its too bad Canada didnt have Dalembert’s superior defensive interior presence in their defeat of Korea. After all, he had done such a great job controlling Rasho in the last game (editors note: infused with heavy sarcasm).
VIVA LA JOEY GRAHAM….VIVA LA REVOLUTION!!!
July 16th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
3rd in Offensive rebounding
4th in shots blocked
9th in rebounding
these are stats of Dalembert in the whole NBA! not just east…how can you say hes not a one of the best defensive centers in the east!
July 16th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
On the Raptors
I think they’ll be a much better regular season team than a postseason team. They’ll be better able to hide their flaws in the regular season and could be quite successful there if Jermaine is healthy enough. A 50 win season isn’t out of the question if they’re healthy and perform consistently.
But I am worried about the postseason. The playoffs shows up more of your flaws. Teams are better prepared and have more time to concentrate on you, learn you habits and exploit your weaknesses. It’s not going to be the Kings who the Raps only play twice and who know barely anything about you …. it’s going to be someone for seven straight games against a team they’ve already played a couple of times and have had their staff work over video all season. Plus they’re going to be a good team. The top 6 seeds in the East as I see it are all good teams and the Raps are very likely going to have face one of those sides.
The counter argument is the Raptors have the same advantage in that area.
My explanation is that I believe the Raptors weaknesses are greater and more exploitable. A team can really narrow in on their lack of offensive versatility and their lack of a perimeter defense. The Raptors are more vulnerable than the teams ahead of them in the East. That’s why I’m skeptical about their chances of winning a playoff series.
Daves last blog post..Trade: Clippers-Nuggets (Camby)
July 16th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Joey Graham is a jerk. I once saw him on the ground floor of BCE Place at 10 PM (I was working late) on a non-game night, I said “Hi, How is it going?” and waved the guy just turned and looked at me didn’t even say “Hi” to a fan. Doesn’t he know that without fans he is nothing? Doesn’t he know that the fans make him the “celebrity” that he is?
July 16th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
My rankings:
1-Celtics
an obvious choice…no need to explain lol
2-Cavs
some people might find this a bit far fetched but Cleveland has an expiring contract of $13 million in wally waldo that some rebuilding teams might find appealing and they can dump their richard jefferson-esque players to Cleveland. For example bobcats might want to send gerald wallace or kings send artest. With an addition of a solid 2nd option to lebron Cleveland will be right under the celtics.
3-Sixers
i really wanted to put detroit here but all the talk im hearing about chauncy/wallace getteing shipped out of town for a scorer (aka mello) gives philly the edge. they got their low post presence and will dominate most of the eastern conference teams. Honorable mention to Thaddeus Young who is a legit starting small forward and proved it at the end of last year.
4-Pistons
theres going to be a change in players here and i really think its going to be a negative. However, if maxiell and stuckey can really fill the roles of chauncey and wallace then they might be back at that #2 spot. But teams in the east have gotten much better and lebron has added a year to his nba career (for those of you who didnt know thats deadly)
5-Magic
Dwight Howard
6-Raptors
If JO stays healthy raptors are going to be a tough team to beat. Calderon is now running the team and i feel a lot safer when he has the ball in his hands. Also i think roko ukic is an awesome back up point guard and will help hold the fort while calderon gets his rest.
7-Washington
Arenas is back. Now if this team can learn to keep their mouths shut they might make some noise (ironic i know). Wizards finished 5th last year because of amazing play by role players. I do not think this will be duplicated because arenas loves the spotlight, so roger mason get used to sitting down.
8-Bucks
The 8th and final spot goes to the bucks. I mean look at this starting line: Bogut Charlie V Jefferon Redd and Mo will. They will generate offense like crazy! Michael Redd will be able to rest on defense because RJ will be guarding the Pierces and Carters and he will be able to just become a spot up shooter because RJ will do all the driving (sort of like a Pierce and Allen). Bucks will finish 8th winning 38 games and get swept in the first round lol
Well there you have it let me know what ou guys think.
Oh and btw Sam Dam is an amazing defensive centre. I totally agree with nihal and whoever thinks Elton Brand is worse then JO needs to be committed. Honestly, what has JO done in the past 3 years? Elton Brand is an ELITE, i will say it again ELITE power forward, right up there with Dirk and Amare. Granted JO is better defensivley and is a better fit for the raptors (because we have bosh) but based on over all talent its not even close…Brand all the way, and hes going to destroy the east (25ppg and 12 rpg)
July 16th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
again, I repeat, over 100 games under .500 in his career. What has Brand ever done? At least JO has something to show for his career. Brand may go 25 15 in the East, but if he does it will be at the expense of his teammates and this Philly team, like every other team he has ever played for will loose out as Brand gets his but no one else gets any.
Also Shak, fyi- the way that seedings go in the NBA, a division winner can finish no lower than the 4 seed. Therefore, even according to your rankings Orlando would have to be the 4 seed and Detroit would have to be the 5.
No seriously, Im not bashing Brand, hes a great player, but lets be real people, his arrival to a 40 win team that won 2 playoff games doesnt immediately make this team the #2 or 3 seed in the East. Last year, Detroit was the #2 seed and WON 60 games (I repeat - that is more than anyone in the powerhouse western conference), and Orlando won 50+ in the 3 seed. And Cleveland, with Lebron missing 15 games due to injury and starting the season without 2 starters due to contract holdouts, and making a major deal at the deadline and STILL having NO talent- still won 47 games. Brand - does not make a sub .500 phily team better than any of these. comeon.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
and who does Joey Graham think he is…Stephen Graham? I mean, seriously.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Nihal,
I hear you that you feel he had a good year last year but his career stats are 8, 8, and 2. Decent but not all star. I mean the guy is 7 ft tall- 8,8,2 should be the minimum- not the exception. And for a guy who averaged 10 and 10, he only had 26 double doubles last year, even though he started all 82 games? And although he blocked 2 shots a game last year, he also averaged 2 turnovers a game as well.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
My bad i forgot cavs and detroit were in teh same division..switch up orlando and detroit!!!
July 16th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Lets take a look at centers in the East to compare Dalembert with:
CAREER AVERAGES
Andrew Bogut: 11.9ppg 8rbg 1.1bpg
Antonia McDyess: 13.4ppg 7.7rpg 1.2bpg
Rasho Nesterovich: 7ppg 5.5rpg 1.3bpg
Jeff Foster: 5ppg 7rpg 0.4bpg
Josh Boone 6ppg 4rpg 0.6bpg
Eddy Curry: 13ppg 5rpg 0.8bpg
Dalembert: 8ppg 8.4rpg 2bpg
etc etc etc
where i am going with this is that all these numbers look similar over their careers as it does often take centers a long time to develop. Thus the next question becoming what have you done for me recently? Well he helped turn a team from 5-13 to finish 35-29. Ended up 3rd in blocked shots an offensive rebounds and played all 82 games for a team, which is extremely rare for a center. In my books hes an elite defensive center in this league. Wow i can’t stop talking ball, can’t wait for the season to start!
Oh and i see nothing our of the Clippers landing Camby. They are not going to make any noise what so ever even if B-Diddy plays 75 games. All though watch out for Al Thornton, he is going to be a very good player in this league…
July 16th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
good point.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
I’ve actually met both Stephen and Joey Graham and my experience was positive. Very nice guys.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
i have to agree with rod, i met joey graham and he is a nice guy. he is kind of boring, like we chatted a bit, then had an awkward silence, and i had to cut my losses and walk away. he high-fived me tho.
July 17th, 2008 at 5:07 am
I gotta go with Philly at the 3 spot here (and possibly the 2 by season’s end) in the East, and I don’t think I am reaching. Brand, if he becomes even 3/4 of the player he used to be will be good for at least 16 and 8. Combine that in with a solid game from Dalembert, and this team has THE most talented frontcourt in the East when both O and D are taken into consideration. JO and Bosh are good, but neither can bang with real centres, and thats where the problem will lie in T. Philly has no glaring weaknesses outside of the 3, and you can bet that Thaddeus Young, AI2, and Andre Miller will be working exclusively on improving that part of their game this season. Add in another year of improvement from Louis Williams, and you have a dynamic 6 players. This team is the 2nd best defensive team in the East, play an uptempo style, force turnovers, and are one of the most athletic teams in the league (with 2 of the most ridiculous athletes in the league in Young and AI2). 7th? Please. Detroit has a better chance of finishing 7th. Lebron will be worn down by season’s end, Orlando doesn’t have a solid enough point, Toronto doesn’t have a quality defensive team, and Washington will always be mediocre at best with this team and no low-post presence. Philly has been vastly underrated in this column, they just replaced Reggie Evans with Elton Brand and you haven’t even moved them up the rankings. That’s just honestly ridiculous, 5th spot AT WORST.
July 17th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
and the Raps just replaced Rasho with JO.
and the Wiz just added a healthy Arenas.
and the Pistons did nothing (but havent won less than 50 games in half a decade)
and the Celtics still have the big 3.
and the Cavs will have both Pavlovic and Varajeo from day 1.
and the Magic, if nothing else (although I know Raps Fan wants to highlight how they signed Pietrus here-and drafted Lee) havent really lost anyone from a team that won 50 games last year.
Everybody better than Philly last year still looks better than Philly this year.
so, Phily lovers, the point is…so what.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
me thinks you have something against philly steve! clearly you aren’t drinking their koolaid like the rest of us are…it’s happy over here, give it a shot, lol.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
The Celts are still the best team in the East no doubt. But the Pistons are due for a shake-up, but if they keep their team the same they will finish 2nd. If the anticipated shake-up happens, that’s when I see Philly hopping up into 2nd. And everyteam below Detroit and Boston right now has glaring weaknesses which Philly does not. Philly’s biggest weakness is 3 point shooting, which their entire team will be working hard on this summer, in addition to the fact that they more than make up for it with their uptempo, take it to the rack attitude. They will be spending all day at the FT line this season. Like I said, LBJ will be dead after 82 games as this team’s primary option for everything. Orlando needs a better point to run their team and better defenders, because outside of D12 they got no one (including a very undersized PF in Shard). Washington has no low-post presence, and Arenas has yet to prove he can be both an efficient scorer and passer at the same time. Raptors have big liabilities on D starting with Jose, compounded by the fact that we have no true C. These teams may have made additions, but none as smart or that filled in a need as well as Philly just did.
July 17th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
WOW IS THIS A SIXER SITE?
ILL TAKE RAPS OVER SIXERS ON ANY WAGER FOLKS
REGULAR SEASON WINS OR POST SEASON WINS.
LINE UP FOLKS.
WE ARE BETTER AT EVERY POSTION EXCEPT FOR IGGY AND WE HAVE A BETTER BENCH
July 17th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Orlando have two big additions, yes two big additions, to their team and one interesting addition. You’ve mentioned Pietrus. Courtney Lee is the interesting addition, a player I’m looking forward to seeing more of and believe he was a really nice draft pick.
The player you’re forgetting about is 6-11 240lbs and one of the best backup big men in the NBA … Tony Battie. He’s back in the mix and gives Dwight a legit big man next to him to handle the more physical teams in the league. Battie is one of the biggest reasons why Orlando have hope for a better day. Their GM, Otis Smith, has been delighted about getting him back healthy and feels Battie will be a major difference maker for the Magic. If Battie was a free agent this offseason he’d be the best unrestricted big man after Elton Brand. Battie will help them.
Personally I’d be really interested to see if Hedo and Rashard could work together on the wings. That would be a huge lineup. I hope they try that early in the season.
Daves last blog post..Lue Joins Bucks
July 17th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
I think we need all the Philly lovers to change sites….this is Raptors Talk! Anyone thinking Philly is gonna take second place over Detroit needs to get off the bandwagon right now.
Brand is great ( I have argued with phdseteve for years for the raps to trade for him) but to come out and think that this piece to Philly will win them more games than Detroit is crazy. We all forget Detroit won 59 games last year, 19 more than Philly. Btand will bring maybe 10 games more to the standings, but to think they are gonna take out Detroit, c’mon! I agree with Steve : Losing breeds losing…just ask another elite PF namede Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
Yes, Detroit has a new coach but newsflash! Detroit has won over 50 games the last 6 seasons and for all those who think that having a new coach will change this must remember they have won over 50 games, 6 times in a row, with 3 different coaches. I hate to be the one to remind everyone that these players know how to play defense, operate in the clutch, and most importantly know how to win. Period. Having a new coach wont change that. This team, currently constructed wins 50+ games.
Now that I have said that, I agree that Philly will be good, but not great. They are part of that second tier teams that are interchagable between 3-7. I personally feel that Orlando , Washington and Cleveland will finish higher in the standings than Philly. I repeat, Philly will be good, but the competition is that much better next year. Just as the west was so close in the standings last year, the east will get much closer as well.
I like the Raptors chances next year, even though they will not be adding anymore players for next season.
I think more absurd than this is the pick of the NYK taking the 8th spot.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Detroit has made it evident that they want to deal chauncey and/or rasheed..doing so opens up time for maxiell and stuckey i think if these guys log huge minutes for detroit they will not win 59 games, yes they are very talented but are still young. Detroit wants to make a deal so that they are a championship team a few years down the road. Im not saying detroit will finish worse then philly im just saying if they do shake things up then they will finish lower in the east. Philly is a legit team. 2nd isnt far fetched at all they can do it. Oh and raptorize blog master shayne gimme ur contact info i wanna place some big time wagers that philly finishes higher than raptors! lol
July 18th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
fair enough Shak, but we are making predictions based on the teams as it stands right now. Once Detroit makes a move (if they do) or anybody else for that matter, we’ll write another preview- with updated rankings based on the moves. But for now, Detroit is still pretty darn good.
looks like Hollywood gino scared off all the Philly fans with his angry post- andd by the way, whats wrong with NYK in the 8 spot?
July 19th, 2008 at 1:21 am
Wow, we have quite a heated discussion here. Allow me to toss my opinion into the ring.
Orlando did not get better. Pietrus is an average player. He very athletic and a decent 3-point shooter, but that’s about it. I see a lot of people writing about his great defence, but no one has bothered to back up this assertion with any proof. He averages less than one steal and about half a block a game, which are hardly impressive. He also couldn’t crack the rotation in Golden State last year. This with a coach who loves strong man-to-man defenders and good 3-point shooting. However, Orlando didn’t get any worse, so they should still win their division and take one of the top four seeds.
Washington is going nowhere. With this same core of players the Wizards have been a .500 team for the last three years. They do have a couple of young players who could contribute more next season or Gil Zero could jack up 20 shots a game at his usual 42% clip. Which scenario do you think is more likely. It could be even worse if he tries to play on a knee that isn’t 100% again. Anyway you look at it these guys are going to be within 2 games of .500 at the end of the season.
Detroit isn’t going to fall off a cliff. They still have one of the most talented teams in the league, both veterans and youngsters. The coaching change won’t mean much either way, if anything I think getting rid of Saunder will be an improvement. The only way they don’t take one of the top three seeds is if they decide that they absolutely have to make a change and end up making a terrible trade. Does anyone think Joe Dumars is going to do this… me either. So, Detroit will be good again.
Cleveland is hard to read. They still have the best player in the league and the rest of their team is average to utter crap. Plus, they have no cap room or desirable assets to make changes. As long as they keep playing defence the way they have been they will be a tough match-up for anyone. My question is, how long can Lebron keep carrying them offensively. Eventually this is going to wear him down, he is after all only human. As much as I really dislike the way this team is put together I can’t really see them dropping below the 5th seed.
As for the Raptors, I think they are much better balanced than they were last year. JO’s shot-blocking will help a lot with the defence. Especially on the perimeter were it will allow their defenders to play tighter to their men without worrying so much about being beaten off the dribble. I don’t think depth will be as much of a problem as some of you seem to think. Roko Ukic can play. He’s performed well in the second best league in the world and he has all the tools to be successful in the NBA. Bargnani can be an adequate back-up forward, especially since he will always have either Bosh or O’neil out there to keep the pressure off him. Graham, Humphries, Adams, Jawai and whoever the thirteenth man ends up being should all be serviceable in limited minutes. Sure, the Raps will be in trouble if Bosh, O’neil or Calderon misses a lot of games, but the same sort of thing can be said of any team. Ultimately, this team should be good enough to win 47-50 games and have a decent chance at winning one round of the playoffs.
the Sixers are an interesting team. The first question you have to ask is whether Brand can come back from the injury and be the player he used to be. Achilles injuries are notoriously difficult to fully recover from. Assuming he does play like he used to , they should be very physical on both ends of the floor and Brand gives them a real go-to scorer. However, their lack of 3-point shooting is going to be a real problem. Once teams realize that no-one on this team can shoot, they are simply going to play zone and clog up the paint. The other thing working against this team is that every team is going to take them seriously this year. Let’s say that the development of their young players and the addition of Brand is worth an additional 8-10 wins. That still puts them in the same range as the Raptors and below Boston, Detroit, Orlando and possibly Cleveland.
That leaves one spot for the playoffs and it really doesn’t matter who squeaks in. Personally my money is on Indiana. I think their talent and their coach are a perfect match for each other and that’s always a good thing. They still need a few more pieces before they’re a legitimate threat to any of the good teams in the East though.
So, here’s my seeding:
1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Orlando
4. Toronto
5. Cleveland
6. Philadelphia
7. Washington
8. Indiana
July 19th, 2008 at 1:26 am
Crap I meant to rag on the DalemBeast, but I’m a little worn out from my last post. Basically he has no real skills, he is just somewhat quicker and more athletic than most players his size. This is the only reason that he is productive at all. Also, he has a habit of taking bad fouls at exactly the wrong time (See the loss to the Cavs last year that cost them better seeding).
July 19th, 2008 at 8:31 am
I was a bit more optimistic about Toronto taking out Detroit last season than I am right now. One of the big reasons I thought Toronto had a healthy chance of knocking them off was TJ Ford. Billups couldn’t guard him, TJ’s quickness caused Chauncey all types of difficulties and gave the Raptors a dangerous offense. TJ was that second option Bosh needed and he was able to create for others at the same time because he was able to get into the paint at will. Although Jermaine is a big addition, losing that matchup and the benefits from it is a big loss.
Plus Detroit defend low post guys very well (like Dwight). They squashed Jermaine’s Pacers squads two years in a row. This was when Jermaine was at the top of his game and finished 3rd for MVP. He didn’t play well enough against Detroit, regularly struggling with his shooting against Detroit’s defense. They stopped him fairly well.
I’m not sure how this new Raptors team is going to matchup with Detroit. Gonna have to wait and see what that looks like.
Daves last blog post..Updated Free Agent List - Part Two
July 19th, 2008 at 9:16 am
I would have joined everyone in the Dalembert lambasting a year ago …. but he really impressed me this past season. He improved dramatically. It’s not the type of improvement that shows up easily in the box sheet. It was something else, it was post defense.
For the first 5 years of his career he was a very talented help defender and weakside shot blocker because of his athleticism and timing. He was also a solid rebounder (again good improvement here too). But he was a fairly one dimensional defender, he wasn’t a good one-on-one defender. It was because he was too thin and regularly got pushed around under the hoop. Opposing big men consistently scored on him.
Last season Dalembert …. finally! …. became a good post defender. He has finally learned how to leverage his weight and how to stop opposing players from backing him down and scoring easy shots. His post defense has gone from being very poor to very good. It’s a huge difference that has now put him in the upper echelon of interior defenders in the league. It was the most consistent and impressive level of man-to-man and post defense I’ve ever seen from Sammy.
His rebounding has also improved because he no longer solely relies on his athleticism. Now he boxes out once in awhile which improves his team rebounding numbers. He can still improve a lot more in this area, he should be a more dominant rebounder than he is.
So now Dalembert is:
- one of the best interior defenders in the league
- one of the better rebounders in the league
- a double digit scorer
- a true center and very athletic
That’s a very good player to have on your team.
Daves last blog post..Updated Free Agent List - Part Two
July 19th, 2008 at 9:45 am
I like the addition of D’Antoni to the Knicks and his philosophy of jack ‘em up and run like the wind will win them some games but they still have a nucleus of bad apples in the big apple. Any team with Isaiah Thomas somewhere in the organization has to be careful for he is very good at destroying good teams. I like Curry and Randolph, just not togther and I dont think that this team, currently constructed, will challenge Indiana for the 8th spot.
I will agree that they will challenge when Starbury gets traded for some other pieces, that might swing the pendulum, but as they stand now, not so convinced that they have the tools.
July 19th, 2008 at 11:36 am
I agree with Dave that Dalembert is a good defensive player. He has value on a team that can score at all other positions. I dont think Philly is that team, as stated above they are not a good shooting team.
If you read between the lines of daves last comments about the Raps chances against Detroit he says what phdsteve has said all along….the road from the east to the NBA championship goes through Detroit, not Philly.
July 19th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Nah, Detroit are vulnerable and there for the taking. Several teams should be favoured ahead of them (four by my reckoning), I’m just not convinced the Raptors are one of them.
The Pistons will still win a pile of regular season games. I’d be surprised if they won less than 50. Playoff time though … playoffs … they’ll be weak then.
I don’t expect the Pistons to make a move (trade) either. It’s a very difficult thing to break up that core, to do that they need the right caliber of player available and right now I don’t see anyone of that level on the market. I can’t see them getting an offer good enough to make a move.
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July 20th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
I must have misled you Dave, I also dont think the Raps are gonna oust the Pistons, but I like the Raps how they are now. But I disagree about the Pistons, they are still one of the two roads you have to pass through to get to the finals.
July 21st, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Just because this is Raptors talk doesn’t mean you have to be delusional. Any talk of the Raptors being higher than the Sixers looks pretty off-base, we may be better than them at PG, PF, and C offensively, but defensively Brand and Dalembert own Bosh and O’neal. O’neal isn’t even a true C. And who is even our starting SF? Moon? Kapono? I’d take Thaddeus Young any day.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:17 am
Adam,
I like ur faith in Brand/Dbert but I dont see them as owning Bosh or JO defensively, not even close. I think depending on the night and the calls, it can swing either way, both groups are good defenders. The main difference between the two tandems is that while Brand, Jo, and Bosh can light it up, Dbert cannot. That allows the Raps to play JO, the better defender against Brand and Bosh against Dbert. Another factor affecting this is the help defense the raps must use because of their poor wing defense. But in a straight up battle, its way closer than you estimate.
As far as JO goes he is a center. That is the position he has played for long time. Yes, he is 6′11 and 260 but Dalembert is 6′11 and 250 but we consider him a center. Bogut is 7′0 245, Ilgauskas is 7′3 260, etc, etc. Many teams have big men who are big enough and quick enough to play both and the raps have two of those players. The myth of Jo not being a banger is off. If you take away last season, and the four in Portland when he hardly played, this guy has averaged over 8.5 rpg over his career and blocking over 2 shots. Dalembert has averaged 8 rpg and 2 blocks for his career. Yes JO shoots more jump shots but that is because he can shoot and more often has teams collapse on him, while Dalembert as we now cannot shoot so well, even though he has improved steadily. People need to get into their heads that JO has and can play center with the best in the league and that defensively he is not a liability but a huge asset.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:18 am
As far as kapono goes, wait and see how well he does this season with the addition of JO. The space created for him now will be unbelievable. Dont forget this is the best shooter in the league. Period.
July 22nd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Brand and Dalembert aren’t better than Jermaine and Bosh … what they (Phily) can do is limit, contain and produce almost as much as Jermaine and Bosh making the perimeter and bench play the deciding factor where Phily has superior talent.
Daves last blog post..Marcus Williams Traded To Warriors
July 28th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Great signing by the Sixers. They just added Kareem Rush to their squad. Beautiful, perfect fit. Excellent move.
Rush was the Pacers best perimeter defender last season. He’s a high quality perimeter shooter and a good complementary scorer. He’s intelligent and plays his role well. Just a perfect fit for their roster.
Daves last blog post..Interesting Developments with Nenad Krstic
August 7th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
I agree with these rankings. I’m sick of all the Magic fans who think Dwight Howard alone can own Chris Bosh and JO combined. Here’s another preview that has Toronto above Orlando: http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9710 If you think the Raps will be better than the Magic you should sound off on there too and shut the Magic fans up.