Ok, enough of the Bosh talk (since in truth he’s not going anywhere)…and besides Raps fans, cant we all just get along?
One thing we can agree on is that we are all excited for the draft, which is less than a week a way. So, lets take a closer look at what the Raps might do.
Chad Ford just wrote a very interesting piece on how to look at draft prospects by tiers. check it out.
According to Ford. the tiers look something like this:
Tier 1
Note: There seems to be a clear preference for Beasley on talent and for Rose on position. In other words, most of the folks I spoke with think Beasley is the more talented of the two but believe Rose’s combination of size and athleticism at his position makes him the better choice.
Tier 2
Note: Virtually every team I spoke with has Mayo and Bayless as the No. 3 and No. 4 picks in the draft, regardless of team need. A few teams argued that Mayo should be in Tier 1, but for now, I left him in Tier 2.
Tier 3
Joe Alexander
D.J. Augustin
Danilo Gallinari
Eric Gordon
Brook Lopez
Kevin Love
Anthony Randolph
Russell Westbrook
Note: Unlike last year, it is very difficult to get a consensus for this tier. Every team I spoke with has Randolph and Westbrook in this tier. Gallinari was almost a unanimous pick. And there was some debate about Augustin and Alexander, but enough of a consensus to put them here instead of Tier 4.
Tier 4
Darrell Arthur
Donte Greene
DeAndre Jordan
Kosta Koufos
Brandon Rush
Note: There was a lot of debate about Jordan and Greene. A few teams have them in Tier 5. Koufos is gaining momentum at the moment and, along with Rush, has worked himself into this group.
Tier 5
Alexis Ajinca
Nicolas Batum
Mario Chalmers
Roy Hibbert
J.J. Hickson
Serge Ibaka
Courtney Lee
Robin Lopez
JaVale McGee
Marreese Speights
Ante Tomic
Note: This is what I call the upside group — a group of young, athletic, inexperienced players who have big upsides but significant risks. A few teams have Ajinca and Lopez in Tier 4.
Tier 6
Ryan Anderson
Chris Douglas-Roberts
Jamont Gordon
Nathan Jawai
Jason Thompson
Bill Walker
D.J. White
Note: If you do the math, there are 35 players on the list. Why 35 guys for 30 slots? In Tier 6, I included every player a team has told me is in its top 30. I suspect that, had I polled every team, this number would have expanded to about 40.
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The Raps most pressing needs are:
A slashing shooting guard
A big who can rebound
A defensive minded player
If we were to apply this theory to the Raps, the we know for sure that CDR is not coming to Toronto if they pick at #17. Actually, if they keep their pick, then they would be drafting from Ford’s teir 5 which includes the following players:
Alexis Ajinca
Nicolas Batum
Mario Chalmers
Roy Hibbert
J.J. Hickson
Serge Ibaka
Courtney Lee
Robin Lopez
JaVale McGee
Marreese Speights
Ante Tomic
According to this system and internet reports of draft workouts, then you would have to assume that the Raps would be drafting: (unless someone from tier 3 or 4 was still on the board)
Courtney Lee or Nicholas Batum if you see shooting guard as their most pressing need
or Robin Lopez or Roy Hibbert if you see a big as their most pressing need.
-Tomic and Ibaka are a few years away from coming to the NBA
-Ajinca has worked out well but is more of a spread 4 than a real 5 in the NBA and doesnt really have the size to be a dominant rebounder
-Hickson, McGee, and Chalmers a) dont really fit the needs of the team and b) are a little low on the talent side to take a chance on them
-Speights has huge upside and good be a good pick at 17 but I dont think he’ll be around. Eventhough there are some issues about his work ethic and personality- with his talent, I still expect him to go in the lottery.
-From what Ive been reading about Courtney Lee, he might be the Rodney Stuckey of this years draft: an excellent player, smart, efficient, great both defensively and offensively, a four year college player with real talent who because he went to a small school isnt getting all the press of a similar player with a similar skill set (ie. Brandon Rush and Kansas). Havent seen him play but sounds intriguing. Time to visit you-tube and watch some film!
As always, standing in the key, Im the dr, I’ve got my feet planted and Im planning on taking a charge.
phdsteve
Technorati Tags: Alexis Ajinca, Ante Tomic, Anthony Randolph, Bill Walker, Brandon Rush, Brook Lopez, Chris Douglas Roberts, Courtney Lee, Danilo Gallinari, Darrell Arthur, DeAndre Jordan, Derrick Rose, DJ Augustin, DJ White, Donte Greene, Eric Gordon, Jamont Gordon, Jason Thompson, JaVale McGee, Jerryd Bayless, JJ Hickson, Joe Alexander, Kevin Love, Kosta Koufos, Mario Chalmers, Marreese Speights, Michael Beasley, Nathan Jawai, Nicolas Batum, OJ Mayo, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Russell Westbrook, Ryan Anderson, Serge Ibaka
June 22nd, 2008 at 1:03 pm
From all available knowledge, it looks like the raps are lookig to draft size with the #17 and trade for a 2 or 3.
If they can swing a deal to get higher in the draft, that is where I see them grabbing a slashing 2 or 3.
So given the choice of bigs left at 17, do the raps draft the hustle in lopez or the size of hibbert?
June 22nd, 2008 at 2:47 pm
sorry, one correction:
JaVale McGee may in fact fit nicely with what the Raps are looking for int he draft (in that he is 7ft with some real upside) however, he has showed very poorly in workouts, and in Orlando, and has refused to come to TO or work out for nay team not in the lottery.
June 22nd, 2008 at 6:56 pm
gino, i would take whoever is available between the two at 17. if both are available, for some reason, i am leaning towards hibbert. georgetown has produced some quality big men over the years. i say that with only seeing lopez play a couple games, so i have more to judge hibbert with.
as far as javale goes, forget him. if he only wants to play for a lottery team, then that is telling of the kind of person he is (aka get drafted and make more money instead of going a couple spots lower and playing on a better team).
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Jermaine Oneil to Toronto
TJ, Rasho and Joey G. to Indiana.
What are your thoughts?
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:26 am
Correction - TJ, Rasho, Joey G and #17 to Indiana
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:03 pm
i would make that trade…you upgrade at center, and address the pg situation. the pick might be a bit steep as a throw in (could be used to get a rush or lopez or hibbert).
even with this trade, you still have about $7mill in expiring contracts from parker, baston and moon to try and land a quality 2/3.
the teams depth is an issue, but they can grab a couple euros and d-leaguers for cheap.
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:10 pm
My selections for #17, in order…
My selections, in order.
1- Chris Douglas-Roberts - The big key words that jump out at me with CD-R are toughness and perimeter defence. He’s also able to create his own shot and explode towards the hoop which is a great change of pace from the ’stand around and wait to catch and shoot’ offence that a lot of the swingmen on the Raps showed last year. His most illustrated weakness is his perimeter shooting, something that doesn’t worry me because almost every other player on the team fell in love with the long-range J last season. I think he’d work well off of Bosh with penetrating and creating trouble, and a 3 of CD-R, CB4, and Calderon could really weave some exciting offensive possessions.
2- Robin Lopez - I initially rolled my eyes when I saw the other lopez brother slated to come at 17, but the more I look the more he seems like a fit. Too often last season the Raps would be spread along the perimeter with no one to clean up the garbage the jump-shooters were leaving. He’s got a non-stop motor and a good feel for the game, putting himself in the right place at the right time on both ends of the floor. He’s tough as nails and understands his role, so you won’t have to worry about his play suffering when he’s not getting touches. He’s still very raw offensively, but if you’re going to spread the floor with shooters and Bosh, Lopez could help keep alive a lot of possessions with tipped balls and o-boards to create 2nd chance points.
3 - Darrell Arthur - This would be a ‘best player available’ pick in my mind. Arthur is a solid all-around defender that could come in handy against teams looking to bring size against the Raps. He’s already got a handful of NBA-quality go-to moves in the post, including a nasty drop-step spin, a nice turnaround j and a solid jump hook. He’s also a great athlete who gets up and down the floor really quickly, and could man the 4 with Bosh at the 5 if the Raps want to go small and run against bigger team. The only questions are his toughness and intensity and focus on playing as hard as possible for 48 minutes. As you can tell with my top 2 picks, the words ‘toughness’ and ‘defence’ shape my view a lot. Something about seeing the Celts win a title with all those maniacs really had me re-consider how big toughness and intensity is to success in the association.
4 - Nicolas Batum - Dude is a freak-a-leak. I saw a you-tube video and he can straight finish. He’s been playing at the highest level in Europe and has got a sharp basketball IQ. Unselfish, smart and a good perimeter defender who can dominate in transition. Got the potential to be a Josh Smith-esque stat-filler. The downside? Again, lack of aggressiveness, toughness. And I’m not a big fan of the ‘project’ label.
5 - Donte Green - The description reads a lot like a new-style Melo, and if they’re patient with him, he’s got star possibility. On the other side of that coin, his lack toughness and rebounding ability could curtail his playing time and lead to frustration. If he develops a back to the basket game and become an all-around scorer, he could be scary good. Just a little more attention to detail on the other end would be needed. “Defensive intensity” is a glaring weakness.
6 - Marreese Speights - A big man with nice touch, a good passer, scoring instincts and rebouding ability to boot? If there’s a way to guarentee his dedication and give him the proper ability to develop, this could be seen as a steal so late in the draft. Or it could be seen as a bust.
If there’s a way we can secure either Maggette or O’Neal in the TJ package AND still keep #17 to aquire one of those bodies, I think we come away drastically improved. I’m just not sure one or the other is going to get it done. It looks like there is going to be a lot of usefull talent at that slot, and a fresh pair of legs coupled with another vet can totally make-over the frontcourt.
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:12 pm
I think it’s important that the Raps keep their draft pick and bring in a young nba ready player. unless they make a great deal and pick up a great nba player like Maggette.
I wouldnt make that trade for Oneil, not unless the raps were guaranteed to resign him for a couple more seasons. one year at almost 20 million for a guy who has been injury prone isnt worth giving up TJ and #17.
Draft Hibbert at 17 if he is there and trade TJ for a good 3 man with some scoring touch. the raps have the luxury of expiring contracts, so if they use these to get a decent player that doesnt fit with his current team (Crawford, Artest) then they’ll be laughing.
Hibbert is 7′2 and, like rapsfan says, comes from a solid college program that produces nba bigs. the knock on him was his production last season, but guys left Georgetown and he didnt have the same team. if he’s put in a situation with good players he’ll thrive. He can rebound, block shots and knock down free throws. i think he’s a no brainer at 17
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:13 pm
almost makes you wonder the thinking of bc and co, if they kept garbo, they could have used his $4.3mill expiring contract, and all of a sudden had about $12mill to try and land someone, or two, to fill the 2/3….
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
just a reminder that the JO trade that the TO star is talking about today was FIRST POSTED right here on June 3rd (check the archive- GM for a day), then discussed a week later on ESPN.com and now finally making the rounds to the local media.
If BC has any more questions, tell him to call me on my cell!
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
heres the link to todays story on TJ Ford for JO:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3457325
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/NBA/article/271523
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080623/SPORTS04/806230395/1004/sports
and heres the link to where it all began!
http://www.raptorstalk.com/2008/06/03/raptors-gm-for-a-day/
PEACE!
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:27 pm
you have been a big proponent about it steve, there is no doubt! maybe you can apply for gheradini’s job? … blog on the side? lol
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
do I get a free blackberry? and do I have to speak Italian?
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:45 pm
to replace maurizio, you don’t need a blackberry, english can be stumbled through and you don’t really need to know anything about the nba…you are over-qualified my friend!
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:33 pm
I agree Raps fan about Garbo, but as Phd and I have discussed, garbo will never play in the nba again after what he did to the raps and also that reports are he would not have passed an nba physical even if he was traded (even though spain says hes healthy enough to play). I think this was the only option for BC.
And even though the official trackback is June 3rd, I have heard this same Jermaine O’neil trade speculation from phd steve since the trade deadline in feb.
June 24th, 2008 at 10:01 am
if he was used as trade filler, with the assumption that he wouldn’t pass a physical, and would be let go after his contract expired, the situation could have been salvaged in my estimation, otherwise i agree gino.
June 24th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
the more and more i read about the JO trade the more and more I dont want it to happen. I’m excited for some sort of move, but I’d be more prone to Diaw and somehow keeping the 17th pick (obviously). maybe Kerr and BC were out shooting around and made a deal that would give us Diaw and let us keep the 17th pick?
it’s well known that the Raps NEED to address rebounding, defence, and secondary scoring. BC will be active on draft day and i have faith he’ll address these problems
June 24th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
the wat to the nba championship is via trade said b.c. no , not Bryan Colangelo but the Boston Celtics !
coachs last blog post..B.C. Needs B.C. Formula !
June 25th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Its looking like the JO trade is not going to happen but that is BAD for the Raps. Wanting Diaw over Oneal is like saying, you prefer your Ford Focus to a Lexus. JO is an all star, a defensive player of the year, and a playoff tested veteran.
Diaw had one good year- thats it. JO has had 8. After Diaw got his contract from Pheonix, he got FAT, and lazy, and has done nothing since. His complete LACK of production is a big reason they wnet down 2 years in a row to SA in the playoffs. Afterall, where was Diaw when Amare got suspended int eh playoff 2 years ago? exactly.
At 10 million a year, he is not just a bad deal, but a total rip-off. The las thing this team needs is a nother lazy player who’s not always tuned in and dedicated to making it happen. Plus, if Diaw was so good and important, and a real 5 tool player, why would Pheonix be so quick to move him for TJ and the #17- especially for a team that is trying to make a REAL run at the title next year? It just doesnt add up.
Anybody but Diaw…please…I mean bring back Delfino at the twice the price, re-draft Arrujio…ask Bargnani to play the 3…make Jamario Moon your 3 point specialist…anything….just please dont trade for Diaw.
I would rather
June 25th, 2008 at 9:12 am
could a change of scenery serve diaw well though? he would have a much bigger role on this team, and he might rise to the challenge. i wouldn’t throw in the 17th pick myself, but there isn’t much of a risk as far as i’m concerned. he’s an upgrade at 3 over everyone we have, and the raptors can’t start the season with forderon in tact.
June 25th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
espn is reporting that the hornets have traded #27 to Portland for $$$.
why werent we buyers?
June 25th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
why would we be? put on your bizzarro gm hat, and it all makes sense.
June 25th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Adrian Wojnarowski over at Yahoo.com has some confirmation that the Jermaine O Neal trade will go through.
Daves last blog post..Marc Gasol To Join Grizzlies
June 25th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Jermaine O’Neal is not who the Raptors should be trading for in exchgange for Ford + Nesterovic + #17 + Filler.
By shooting for the moon … Toronto is going to end up shooting itself in the foot.
khandors last blog post..Tiger Woods’ greatest triumphs … yet
June 25th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
its official! Espn is reporting that the trade of TJ, Rasho and 17 for JO is all but done pending physicals.
Couldnt be happier. Im thinking of writing a new open letter to BC and company! I’ll take that Blackberry now.
more to come….stay tuned!
June 26th, 2008 at 4:29 am
I say take Batum, and is Randolph the most over-hyped guy in this draft?