So the word is Garbo is on the way out. No real surprise here, I mean, the writing has been on the wall since the season began, and MLSE launched that lawsuit against Spain. What kills me though, is that instead of packaging him with a couple of the other expiring contracts for someone that will help, BC is going to buy him out, get nothing in return (Morris Peterson anyone), and potentially pay a 50% premium to replace him
WTF man?
Between Garbajosa, Parker, Nesterovic, Graham and Baston, the Raptors have about $20 million in expiring contracts this coming season. That is enough to get 2 starters and 1 quality bench player in a trade. And I’m not even going to talk about throwing one of Forderon into the mix.
The above scenario is contingent on that notion that any improvements additions to this team would be made via trade. Looking at this years free agents, there are few reasonably priced cats who the Raptors can go after to help the team (Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, Keyon Dooling, Bonzi Wells, Bostjan Nachbar, Ryan Gomes, Royal Ivey, Eduardo Najera). Notice I didn’t list any of the unrestricted players, there’s a reason, I don’t see the Raptors winning a bidding war against anyone to secure any of them.
Q: Why would you trade away a valuable expiring contract, when we are all fairly confident that BryCo wont be making a run at any of the above free agents?
A: Because Gherardini has designs on another Euro who the Raptors can get for about $4mil/year, and is ‘NBA ready’.
This is what has me concerned. There can’t be any other explanation. With a pretty solid 2009 free agent class, an expiring $4.35mill contract is fairly valuable.
——————-
Is it me, or have these playoffs been fairly lame. I mean, the West wasn’t as strong as we thought, and the East wasn’t as weak as people said. It was a dogfight in the East, and the Lakers rolled relatively easily to the finals. It’s not even like the Lakers are that great of a team. If Ginobli was healthy, I still contend that the Spurs would be playing the Celtics right now.
I was talking with my buddy Marc at work, and he was saying how this is the end of the era where teams play/battle for years before they are championship calibre. Much like baseball, if you have the money, you can put together a championship calibre team in one year (granted the Celtics gave up Jeff Green and Al Jefferson to get here, and the Lakers gave up cap relief and Marc Gasol). I tend to agree. I have watched every game, but I’d frankly rather be playing NBA 2K8 (not much of an endorsement, cause I don’t like the game very much).
Technorati Tags: Al Jefferson, Anthony Parker, Bonzi Wells, Bostjan Nachbar, Boston Celtics, Bryan Colangelo, Eduardo Najera, Jeff Green, Joey Graham, Jorge Garbajosa, Keyon Dooling, Los Angeles Lakers, Maceo Baston, Marc Gasol, Matt Barnes, Maurizio Gherardini, Mickael Pietrus, MLSE, Rasho Nesterovic, Royal Ivey, Ryan Gomes
June 13th, 2008 at 12:04 am
I’m assuming the deal to offer Garbajosa a buyout is out of respect to Garbo himself… not saying it’s right, but most likely what it is
June 13th, 2008 at 12:08 am
I’m on board with pretty much everything you said, with the exception of one thing: Why no love for NBA2k8? Dude, that game is great.
June 13th, 2008 at 12:13 am
as i wrote this, boston came back from 24 down to win game 4…lol.
tunez: it’s possible, i didn’t consider that aspect. but considering everything that has gone down b/w jorge and bc, i would be surprised.
smoke: nba 2k8 is a hard game to play man. too much going on. im an rpg halo/rainbow six kinda guy. i can’t hit a layup in traffic for my life, and i can’t control my big guys in the post…frustrating!
June 13th, 2008 at 7:58 am
I love 2K8! it is the best bball game so far! I dont really like the buy out of Garbo but I understand it. who’s to say BC hasnt shopped Garbo around and found nothing in return. that injury was horrific and the lawsuit makes things look bad.
I think BC has a plan and we can sit here and speculate on what he could do, but the guy is good and he’s only a few years into his contract and had to clean up after the previous GM’s. I’m on board with BC…he’ll do the right thing
June 13th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Clean up after previous GMs?? WHAT??? Come again??? He had a #1 pick and enough caproom to save a city in Africa and HE FUCKED IT UP. Wayne Embry did a fantastic job of setting up a buffet for Colangelo and Bryan shat on it. I have never heard anything so laughable in my life.
The playoffs have been more than lame, they’ve sucked. Paul Pierce has come out as some egotistical jackass with the flare of a 1940s actress, Garnett looks like a candidate for some anger management with all his faces and we all seem to have to care about which Hollywood stars are in attendance. I’d rather see a Hawks/Hornets final.
AltRapss last blog post..Who’s A Tricky Dicky?? – Evening Hardwood June 12
June 13th, 2008 at 9:27 am
The only benefit I see of buying out Garbo instead of trading him as part of a deal is…wait..I got it…oh, here we go…its better because Garbo is a…oh…wait…no…nothing there…
Seriously though, the only think I can take a guess at is that given his insurance situation and the involvement of the federation, no team would be willing to take on a mess like him regardless of him being an expiring. That’s what it has to be, otherwise it makes no sense.
Arses last blog post..Garbo’s almost done + Clipper interest in PGs
June 13th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Wow! Who is a bitter betty! I am new to the site and enjoying your insight, but I am not worried with BC as GM. I don’t think he is perfect, but I certainly don’t think he shit the bed when he took over. He is a well respected GM and is doing an above average job. Garbo is expiring 4.5, that isn’t much. As you pointed out we still have LOADS of expiring contracts, so other teams would probably trade for a player that might actually be able to contribute on the court - in North America. Garbo can’t play in the NBA, he can’t pass an NBA physical, not sure but that might even make it technically impossible to trade him. Let him walk, negotiate a payout, save a couple of mil, keep the good feelings with the Euros (we ARE in still sweet talking Jose), I’m not sure I’ve noticed this anger in you in previous posts but it doesn’t look good on you.
I honestly hear what you are saying with your moan about the playoffs, but wow, how things have changed when anyone would ask for a NO vs Atl playoff over a LA vs Boston!
Finally, I TOTALLY agree with you comment about BryCo having a great situation handed to him. Nevermind the Carter trade, it was the Rose trade that killed me. I was ready to wait for his contract to expire, use the picks we got from the VC trade and be crap enough to have pretty decent picks of our own. Oh well, regardless of what you think of BC, he does give this organization a credibility it lacked - forever. He won’t be perfect, but he’ll make more good moves than bad and admit when he has made mistakes. Though the average fan’s level of hero worship is a little over the top when you think about the situation BC walked into.
June 13th, 2008 at 11:53 am
how come no ones mentioned we hope to sign his best friend to a huge deal and maybe don’t want to screw that up?
June 13th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
it’s a good point dileroscoe, i was thinking that exactly. he should have waited till after july 1st to make any moves with noise surrounding garbo to appease calderon. the timing still kills me.
4.5 million isn’t a huge amount, but if we moved garbo and parker, thats almost $9mil in expiring contracts, that is major money (read 2nd tier nba star).
the finals has been disappointing (save last nights game), but a hawks/hornets one would be messy. it would be more exciting though, young run-and-gun teams.
arse, the lawsuit would be b/w mlse and spain, any team who takes on garbo would only have the guy for cap relief, can’t see that being that big a deterrent.
June 13th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Hey AltRaps do you remember when Babcock traded away Carter for basically nothing? Or the drafting of Rafael Araujo @ 9, when Andre Igudala, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Gilbert Arenas,to name a few, were still available. If BC predecessors had any vision they would have drafted better and had a solid core of players in which BC would now have to work with, instead he had to find players in europe. Cap space isnt always the answer either. there needs to be talent out there and we all know Toronto is at the bottom of everyones list of teams to sign with.
Everyone thinks that a championship team can be built in a couple years, but it just isnt the case. maybe if LeBron or Dwight HOward was available at #1 instead of Bargs, but it didnt happen. the raps have made the playoffs in two straight years, which is a hell of a lot better than being 10 games below .500. patience ALtraps…patience. there is a reason why we are bloggers and BC is an Executive of the YEar
June 13th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
oops sorry, Gilbert wasnt in that draft…he was drafted in the second round when the Raps drafted Micheal Bradley 17th overall when guys like Randolph, Haywood, Sammy D, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, and Mehmet Okur.
June 13th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
masterjuddi, I have all the patience in the world…hence me supporting this team since day one, both financially and emotionally.
I say the following just as an answer to your points, not starting a war, but:
- I dare say had any of BCs predecessors done as you noted above, they would still be here and BC would probably be elsewhere.
- that said, they didn’t. However, he was handed the keys with Bosh and Calderon here (granted, Jose didn’t step up until later, but he did), a #1 pick, and if memory serves, the most cap room this franchise ever had going into an offseason since being a competitive team. Any GM would take that.
- we made the playoffs with class two years ago, but making the playoffs with a .500 record should not be looked on as a success.
- who do you think has the better upside given last years results? Portland or Toronto? This is without Oden. If you say Portland, then why? After all, 2 summers ago, Toronto had the rosier outlook, no?
- if cap space isn’t important, then why is everyone making a big deal about the expiring contracts and their attractiveness to other teams or for us to hold on to?
- I think the whole Toronto-is-an-outpost thing is a moot point now (ask Igoudala) and, lets be honest, money is money.
AltRapss last blog post..Linkage – June 13
June 13th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
as you all know already, I wish we could have Babcock back! (just kidding).
But robert Archibald is right- and I heard Colangelo say it the other day- the problem with trading Garbo is that he wont pass an NBA physical- and therefore he is untradeable and may never play again in Toronto- so, if you buy him out you stand to save a little bit of cash. the only way this scenario ends better is if Garbo retires due to injury- then the raps dont have to pay a penny and it doesnt count towards the cap.
June 13th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
AltRaps…I’m not starting a war either but it is a nice change of pace on this site when people disagree intead of constantly complimenting each other. i like debating raptors ball. I think the best thing about blogs is people’s opinions on matters they dont really have insight to besides rumours and speculation.
first off I didnt say cap room wasnt important I said that it isnt always the answer. the nba is riddle with contracts of players who had one good season. Brian Cardinal, Jerome James, Raef LaFrentz, etc. I hate when teams are forced into bidding wars with other teams for players who dont deserve it.
I would say that the Blazers have the better outlook opposed to the raptors. this being based on solid young players, Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, Webster, Frye, Jones, and Oden. compared to Bargs, Joey Graham, HUmphries, and Jose. If the Blazers were in the East they would be top 4, if the raps were in the West they would be bottom 4. of course I just say this based on what i think…i could be different, but the Blazers young guns are producing and outside of Calderon the Raps younglings arent.
June 13th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
that’s a good point, but if someone just wanted the expiring contract, they might overlook his physical conditioning, no?
June 13th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
I’ve been reading a lot about the Clippers/Raptors trade talks and I get excited when i think about Maggette in a raps uniform. the guy can score from anywhere on the floor and can rebound for a 2/3. the rumour is that the CLip want Calderon rather that Ford (no shit), but maybe the raps could package a first round pick along with Joey G. I just like the sound of Maggette at 3 for the raps.
June 13th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Wayne Embry is one of the reasons why BC decided to come to T.O. Hating on management and Bargnani is still premature at this point in my opinion. BC seems to have a “we are the world campaign” so let’s wait and see what happens next. Raptors has always been deemed an nba farm and I don’t think it matters where the players come from. Just gotta get them to stay once they get developed. I hope we get a bigger, intimidating goon that can play for next lineup. TJ was the type to not back down from anyone too bad he’s a midget. TJ for Artest and sign Pietrus!
June 13th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
raptor29, i would pull that trade in a heart beat. i love ron-ron, and think pietrus would be a perfect (reasonably priced) compliment to this team.
what kind of timeframe should we give these guys to deliver results? don’t know how premature all the bashing it. might be a bit excessive, but not premature.
June 13th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
I don’t understand. What is the point in waiving Garbajosa? What is it? What do the Raptors gain?
I hate this decision if this comes to fruition. The Raptors have 5 open roster spots already, there’s no need to create another one. Leave Garbajosa on the roster and try and get him healthy. He was a very good and important role player for this team a year ago. Even if he doesn’t get healthy you still have his expiring contract to deal.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Game Four: Los Angeles vs Boston
June 13th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Colangelo’s performance so far has been a mixed bag (postive but slow progress) but he’s a quality GM who’ll come good if given time.
The number one pick was difficult. It was one of those years where there was no clear cut number one pick. There wasn’t even a group of five players. You had at least 5 players in consideration for that pick when you look at guys like Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas. Maybe Adam Morrison - hey it could have been worse, imagine how the Bobcats feel? At the time I wanted Colangelo to draft Aldridge. I thought Roy was the best player in the draft but I liked the idea of Aldridge-Bosh together. When Colangelo picked Bargnani I thought fair enough that’s a solid pick, he’s an interesting player with lots of potential. Along with Gay I thought Bargnani had the highest ceiling in the draft. With no clear number one taking a guy with the high ceiling can be decent business. Now if Greg Oden was in the draft (darn High School rule) when he had the number one imagine where the Raptors would be now? The answer to that is something like where the Portland Trailblazers are right now. Imagine Bosh and Oden together with TJ Ford and a bunch of top shooters. Just bad timing. For my money it was the least clear cut draft with the most questionable potential guys at the top since Olowakandi went number one back in 1999. Very difficult. Just bad timing.
Also I have to give him some room on the free agency class of 2006. We had $11-12 mil in cap space that summer. Ben Wallace for $60mil? Eddy Curry $50mil? Nene for $60mil? Jason Terry for $50mil? Al Harrington $57mil? Peja Stojakovic for $60mil? They were the top names. I’m not going to squibble about not signing them. All of those guys have bad contracts that are harming their teams. I thought Colangelo was wise in not signing any of those guys. (Note: Rasho trade is down below)
Actually there was one free agent who I’d forgotten about that I was annoyed Colangelo didn’t sign and that was Caron Butler. Butler was signed on a very economical deal at $46mil over 5 years after putting up 17 and 5 the season prior. Very promising young player who was just starting to fulfill his potential. At the time I couldn’t believe it when Washington got him that cheap. Butler fell under the radar throughout the league, Washington should never have gotten such a good deal and I would have liked Colangelo to have done that. It was a bargain from the moment he signed.
I loved the TJ Ford trade. Classy point guard who was single handidly the difference between Milwaukee winning 26 games and making the playoffs. Very good starting point guard who can come in and help start a solid core. Worth noting I didn’t think too highly of Villaneuva. The minute this trade happpened I thought Toronto would make the playoffs because TJ Ford was that good and would get the best out of his team like he did in Milwaukee. I couldn’t understand all the analysts outrage at the time, that was misguided.
I loved the decisiveness in letting Mike James go. The Anthony Parker signing was beautiful. Didn’t know much about Garbajosa so I had no opinion on that but he turned into a very nice pickup. I also liked that he gave Sam Mitchell time because I thought he was starting to turn it around the season before, and I liked that he’s given him an extension and kept him around. I liked the Freddie Jones pickup also but unfortunately that didn’t pan out. Jones showed some nice skills as a 6th man down in Indiana.
Things I didn’t like, well okay I need to give a short paragraph to one man in particular first - Jason Kapono. Terrible decision. One dimensional player who doesn’t play defense. Way too much money involved for that to be a good pickup. Why not just acquire James Jones? Better D, smarter player, also an excellent shooter and oh yeah he’s about 1/3 of the cost and will cost even less to re-sign. Again I did love the decisiveness, I loved how he went out on the first day of free agency and got the guy at the top of his list beating several other GMs to punch. Loved that. Pity it was Kapono at the top of the list though.
The things that bug me the must and non-moves. Not moving either TJ or Jose despite it being clear that it was a burgeoning problem and also that the roster had other needs which could be filled by trading one of them. Not adding a second scorer. Not finding Bosh a bona-fide all-star sidekick. Not hiring a big man who’d add muscle under the boards when it became appearant that Rasho wasn’t enough.
I’m segway onto Rasho I very much disliked this move simply because of the cost of his contract. Rasho was due $23mil over three years which was outrageous to begin with, but not only that, Colangelo decides to give up expiring contracts to land him. San Antonio were shopping him (needed to get quicker for Phoenix/Dallas) and getting no bites at the time, why give up so much? Raptors could have had $20mil of cap space had Bryan stood still for the year. I liked what Rasho was going to bring to the team and like what he does now but he’s overpaid and his contract has harmed the flexibility of the team. My guess is that he didn’t think the contract mattered so much since he was going to sign other free agents and TJ Ford to an extension which would eat most of the cap space anyway … he wasn’t going to standstill and wanted to make changes right away with Rasho being a decent placeholder to help smooth out the transition until he could land better pieces. Also worth noting that I would have rathered Przybilla than Rasho.
In conclusion, I think it’s a mixed bag overall from Colangelo. I’d say more positives than not. Regardless I’m not worried about it because he’s a top class GM who’ll always give the Raptors a good shot at building a quality team with a great deal or two. This situation can look very different very quickly with the right trade or two.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Game Four: Los Angeles vs Boston
June 15th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Dear Dave
I agree with most of what you have said but I do have one problem that you have posted, that being Kapono. Kapono’s ineffectiveness this year has nothing to do with his lack of defense or large contract, it was a coach who could not use a player who shoots one out of every two balls in the basket.
Kapono is one of the top 3 scorers in UCLA history. UCLA HISTORY! Enough said.
He has won a ring in Miami and showed in these playoffs against Orlando that his experience, scoring, and presence on the floor gives fit to the other teams fits (for those who forget, he shot 58.5% for the series averaging 15.6 points and 30 minutes a game). He was the second leading scorer on the team for the playoffs.
Granted it is easy to dump on him bcuase he plays lackluster defense, but when you shoot 50% from anywhere on the floor, your offensive output outweighs your defensive inabilities. Its up to the coaching staff to install and properly use help defense that allows you keep a player like Kapono on the floor without getting burned.
Therein lies the problem: He was inproperly used by a coaching staff which does not know how to capitalize on a Jason Kapono. Think back to how many times he was standing on the offensive floor waiting for a pass instead of moving off of several picks to get open. The success of other sharp shooters (see Rip Hamilton, Reggie Miller) is that playes were designed so that came off of multiple screens to get them open. when your sharpshooter, who has won back to back 3 point competitions attempts around 10 3-pointers between January and March, there is a seriuous deficiency in the coahcing department.
That all being said, to judge Colangelo saying the kapono signing was bad is off. The signing of Yogi Stewart to a 6 year 24 million dollar contract was bad. The raptors signed both men to the same money, which was the bigger bust?
Kapono made his money this year with the way he helped the team in the playoffs. Great signing, bad coaching.
June 15th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Hollywood Gino,
I still don’t like the acquisition of Jason Kapono. It was too much money for such a limited player.
As for being the top 3 scorer in UCLA just look at players like JJ Reddick or Adam Morrison. College accolades by themselves aren’t a great judge for NBA success. As for his NBA championship, well he didn’t play that season in Miami (a total of 2 minutes in the playoffs when they won the title). He started to get significant playing time the following season when the team was falling apart. As for Yogi, Yogi is definitely a worse signing.
Kapono had a good series against Orlando but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat it next season, he only played well because he was shooting lights out and hardly any other players wanted to shoot the ball. He couldn’t defend Hedo or Rashard on the other end and because of that he handed most of his points right back to the Magic. He also didn’t help the bigs on the backboards which was a large part in the Magic being outrebounded (the Raps were desperate for their perimeter players to help out their bigs under the glass and rebound like a team). Anyway, that can be left til halfway through next season when we know for sure and we can revisit that.
Kapono is most useful on a team with a low post presence like a Shaquille O Neal or a Tim Duncan. It’s the easiest way to get him get him open shots and use his ability to spread the floor for your own good. His fit next to Bosh and Bargnani is fine but less useful. Which in itself lessens the positive impact for Bosh/Bargnani and decreases the numbers of shots he recieves (Bosh doesn’t get doubled like Shaq did in Miami).
As for his number of shots he took an almost identical number (slightly more in Toronto to be exact) of shots per minute this season as he did last season in Miami. The biggest difference was playing time and the fact that he kept passing up three pointers despite being the best three point shooter in the league.
Seriously does it not bug everyone when Kapono passes up a good look from three to take a 22 footer? Passing up three points for two for the sake of one foot when you’re the best three point shooter in the league? Where’s the sense there? That wrecks my head. In large part Kapono’s eFG% fell from 59% to 54.5% because his ratio of three pointers to two pointers was roughly half (3 shots out of 8 where three pointers in Miami versus 1.5 shots out of 6 shots in Toronto) of what it was the previous season in Miami despite taking the same number of shots per minute as he did in Miami. You think the coaching staff wants Kapono taking the least efficient shot on the floor (22 footer) when they have the best three point shooter in the league taking them? Absolutely not.
Kapono isn’t just a bad defender, he’s an awful defender. That’s why Sam Mitchell can’t find him more time. He wrecks the Raptors team defense and gives up as many points as he scores while on the floor. Kapono was the exact same way in Miami but Pat Riley had hardly any three point shooters to space the floor for Shaq/Wade and had lots of injury problems so he played Kapono more minutes than he normally would have. He’s not just an awful defender, he’s also a poor rebounder, a poor passer, poor ballhandler, doesn’t run the floor well. The only shots he takes are set shots or off a screen. He can’t put the ball on the floor and drive or create shots for himself. Doesn’t bring any real energy or hustle to the team either.
What exactly is Sam Mitchell doing that’s hurting Jason Kapono? He’s a bench player. Not Rip Hamilton or Reggie Miller. He’s a Steve Kerr, a Jarvis Hayes, a Piatowski. Kapono isn’t going to get an inordinate number of screens to work with. He isn’t a good enough scorer in the NBA to deserve them. Heck Kapono gets more screens here in Toronto than he did under Pat Riley in Miami. The vast majority of other teams around the league would give no significant positive bump in the number of screens Kapono.
He’s just a limited player and Colangelo is paying him 6mil per for the joy of Jason Kapono. I’d much rather have James Jones who’s almost as good of a shooter, a well above average defensive player, brings great hustle, is a smarter player and he’ll cost 1-2mil per season. Which one is better value? Which one would limit the Raptors financial flexiblity over the next three seasons more? That’s why he’s a bad signing. There’s better options elsewhere who are cheaper.
Should have signed his Miami teammate James Posey instead. Very good shooter, great defender, great rebounder, runs the floor well, incredible levels of energy and hustle, great leader, legit championship experience, one of the toughest players in the league. What did he cost? 3.5mil? Hmmmm another player easily acquireable last summer … yeah the 6mil Colagnelo spent on Kapono was not a good use of finances.
Daves last blog post..Colangelo’s Performance
June 15th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Dave,
come on… are you seriously suggesting that Kapono is like Adam Morrison and JJ Reddick? Its hard to read anything you write after making a comment like that. Especially when you back it up by stating that you’d rather have James Jones! Wow! He barely shoots 40% from the field and less than 40% from behind the arc for his career. Meanwhile, Kapono shoots over 45% for his career from the filed and from behind the arc and shot close to 50% from both last season.
I mean really David, arguing about Kapono’s Fg% dropped from 59 to 54%…the point is that he still makes more than 1 of every 2 shots he takes, which is better than just about everyone else in the NBA, including Rip Hamilton and James Jones. Really, how many guys under 6′10 shoot 50% from the field?
And seriously, stating that Kapono hurts the Raps team D is like suggesting that (insert joke here) Newsflash….No one plays D on this team- Moon, Parker, Bargnani, and Bosh- none of them were slowing down Turkolu or Lewis in the playoffs- and thats why they lost.
Kapono is not a great player. I agree. Kapono shouldn’t start. I agree. Kapono is not worth close to $6 mil. Sure. But there is no arguing that Kapono is being mis-used in Toronto by the coaching staff.
June 16th, 2008 at 1:03 am
Dear Dave
Just a few thought on your recent reply.
I have to agree with phD Steve, your comparison of Kapono to Reddick or Morrison is absurd, let alone the James Jones rant. I will disregard these and move on.
Kapono does not play good defense…I acknowledged this in my last post. What should enable a team to keep playing a player such as Kapono is the teams ability to make stops as a TEAM! when your team defense gives up 9 first quarter 3-pointers against Orlando in game 1, team defense is lacking. This was just not Kapono who was giving back points, it was the Raptors having no defensive answer for Orlando. Period. Defense has and always will be played as a team, and one player is not to blame for this.
As far as his series against Orlando, I agree that he shot the lights out, but this is nothing new for Jason Kapono, he SHOOTS OVER 45% FOR HIS CAREER! and he shot 49% for the season. 49%!
I am not sure which Raptors team you have been watching, but the Raptors, like the Suns and Spurs, have a dominant, all-star, low-post presence in Chris Bosh. If Kapono is gonna shine in any system, this should be the one, where Bosh passes well out of double teams. If you watched the Orlando series, or the New Jersey series the year before that, they challenged the Raptors to defeat them using everyone else but Bosh. Kapono was signed for that reason, an outside shooter who could hit the jump shot created by a double team on Bosh. Remember, he shot 58% this playoffs and scored 15 ppg when no one else could hit a shot. I think he did his job.
As far as rebounding and defense goes, Kapono cannot be held accountable for any of that. Your Honour, I would like to draw the courts attention to the fact that the Raptors only outrebounded two team this regular season, those teams were the Sacramento Kings and the Miami Heat. 28 other teams had more rebounds over the course of the season. The Raptors were also 19th in steals and 25th in Blocked shots.
You cannot expect to win anything in this league when you cannot get possession of the ball or stop others from scoring.
I rest my case.
It is easy to say he passed up 3-pointers, but are you gonna tell me that Kapono doesn’t have the mental capacity to know when to shoit a high % 3- pointer? If Kapono doesn’t shoot that shot, I’m sure he knew it wasn’t gonna drop. You cannot possibly shoot 50% in the pros by not knowing when to shoot. You should blame the coaching staff for not creating space for him to shoot his shot. If it blows your mind so much that Kapono does not shoot 3’s, doesnt the coaching staff frustrate you more when they don’t draw plays for him?
I agree that Kapono is a bench player, that he is not a Miller or a Hamilton in that way. My comparison was that these two players have/had shots created for them by the constant movement around screens allowing open shots. And like Kapono, they allow the floor to open up and force opposing defenses to play more honest. The only screens run in this offense are from Bosh for the point guard, the high screen and roll. The fact that the other 2 players on the floor not screening the PG are not screening for Kapono is a coaching malfunction. Plain and simple.
As far as Posey is concerned, the last year that Posey and Kapono played in Miami explains why Kapono signed for 6 mil and Posey for 3.5 mil.
Posey: 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 apg, 43%fgp, 37.5% 3fgp,
Kapono: 26.4 mpg, 10.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 49% fgp, 51% 3fgp
There was a reason why Kapono went for more money than Posey and why Posey was less sought after than Kapono. Aside from rebounds, Kapono was better by far across the board and he could do one thing that Posey cannot, and that is shoot the lights out consistently. If Sam Mitchell is too inept realize how to use Kapono, well thats not Colangelos fault. In fact, Posey has almost identical numbers this year to the previous year in Miami, so even though he was on a WAY better team, he still produced the same as in Miami. To suggest that he is a great rebounder or defender is to over-estimate his impact, since he plays for Boston. Anyone can look like a great defender playing along side Pierce, Allen, and Garnett, all great defenders. As far as a very good shooter, he is ranked 303rd in fg% overall in the league this past season. (Kapono ranked 103rd, and this ranking includes all Big Men who have inflated fg%. When narrowing this stat to only SF, Kapono was 13th this season while Posey was 61st).
You can also see by post season #’s why kapono is worth more money.
Posey this post season is averaging 6.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, and 1.0 apg in 21 mpg
Kapono: 15.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.8 apg in 30 mpg.
Granted, Posey has played more games, but given the stats, which don’t lie, would you still rather have a Posey over a Kapono? I didn’t think so.
Was 6 mil too much for Kapono, only time will tell. Is Kapono’s talent being wasted by Sam mitchell?
Yes.
June 16th, 2008 at 6:52 am
So bryco is not a genius at all..
June 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am
It appears that we can all agree on one thing- that Kapono (as he was being used last year) looks like a bad signing for BC. the question now is simply this- if used differently, can that $5.5 million be money well spent? While I like to believe that the answer is yes, I think Hollywood Gino and Dave both point out some very important points about the construction of this team- namely that its missing more than 1 piece to really be effective and taken seriously as a championship contender.- And Kapono is no one of the “core” pieces moving forward. He can however, be a valuable piece off the bench- a la Brent Berry (or any member of the family)- on a championship calibre team. Every team needs a 3 point specialist, and guys who make open shots- What we need is someone other than Jamario Moon hoisting up 3s!
With the draft only days away now- and Free Agency just around the corner, Im hoping that the “plug holes” or “stop gap” approach is not the mentality in Toronto. We need some bold, big moves. We need a change of players but also a change of attitude (and I have to agree with the hollywood gino here- a change of offensive and defensive systems).
June 16th, 2008 at 11:01 am
I agree with the Jamario moon point, he was not brought in to make 3 pointers… changes are looming in the air around the ACC….and you will see many changes to improve the scoring and defense on the Raptors next season. BryCo is not happy with this years outcome and is on the verge of a blockbuster.
My last comment to Dave, I agree that Caron Butler would have been a better signing than Kapono. But As far as Caron Butler goes, he makes 8.5 mil a season. More money than BryCo wanted to spend on a forward who was to score off the bench. Kapono will be a valuable piece to this puzzle next season after all of the changes made.
I just hope and pray Sam Mitchell reads “Defense for Dummies” before tip off next season…
June 16th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
kapono was definitely not used correctly during the regular season, but showed good signs during the playoffs. smitch will have to make some adjustments to get him the ball in scoring positions.
caron does have an 8.5 million price tag, but if we grabbed him instead of parker and garbajosa, this team might be better off…just a thought. i hope smitch also reads “offense for dummies” too gino, the one trick pony gets exposed in the playoffs.
June 16th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Raps Fan I agree…I dont like the Euro experiment made by BryCo, for neither Garbo nor Parker should start for any team in this league, but both have value coming off the bench.
I will say that what has hamstrung the Raptors more than the contracts that they have is for sure that of a coach that was not chosen by BryCo. Had SMitch not won coach of the year, he would not be coaching this team.
June 16th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
100% agreed gino. i imagine he is on a short-short leash this season. if the raptors get off to another slow start, and are under 500 by january, i can see smitch getting his walking papers.
June 16th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Hey guys, some really interesting points raised worth discussing. I’m in a scatterbrain mood today so I’m just going to jump around and pick points at random.
James Jones - James Jones shot 44% from the field and 44% from three this season. He shot the ball 5.6 times a game and 3.5 of those attempts were from three point range. Because he has a high ration of three point shots to two point shots he has a higher true shooting percentage (takes into account value of threes and free throws). Jones’ TS% was 62.5% last season and his eFG% was 57.6% (just threes, not free throws). In comparison Jason Kapono shot 49% from the field and 48% from three (both considerably higher than Jones) but because he shot so few three pointers in relation to his overall shot attempts his TS% was only 56% and his eFG% was only 55%. I don’t like saying only, that’s very good marks for a perimeter shooter, I mean in comparison to James Jones. Have I made my point about why James Jones is a truly great shooter? I hope. And have I made my point about why I get so irritated at Kapono taking the least efficient shot on the floor instead of three pointers when he’s the best three point shooter in the league? I hope so.
JJ Reddick and Adam Morrison mention - They were only meant as illustrations for great college scorers who’s scoring ability did not translate into the NBA game. It was in response to the Kapono top three UCLA all time scorers comment. Just because Kapono was a top scorer in college does not mean he can be a top scorer in the NBA like Reddick and Morrison have been incapable of doing.
James Posey - Well we’ll do the TS% and eFG% again with James because he takes a large percentage of three pointers. He takes 5.6 shots a game also, and 3.8 of them are three pointers. He shoots 42% from the field and 38% from three. Both considerably lower than Kapono but because he shoots so many more shots from three point range Posey’s true shooting percentage is higher than you’d imagine. His TS% is 59% and his eFG% is 55%. That makes his eFG% equal to Kapono and his TS% higher because he gets to the FT line better. James Posey is a very good shooter. Posey is one of the best defensive small forwards in the NBA, he was that in Boston, Miami, Memphis, Houston and Denver. It has nothing to do with Kevin Garnett or his teammates in Boston. He’s just a flat out impressive defensive player. Posey has far more value to his teams than Jason Kapono has had.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Okay there were some others in there
Chris Bosh - Dominant low post player? Not so much no. Bosh is a dominant player but not really a low post scorer. What Chris is … is the single best penetrating big man in the league. Catches the ball at 15-17 feet, turns and faces, drives and attacks his man off the dribble. It’s his best weapon and how he scores most of his points. He’s got an incredible first step and he’s truly excellent at creating contact. Can we all agree that’s how Bosh creates the majority of his damage offensively?
Because of this Bosh isn’t a typical back to the basket scorer like a Tim Duncan or Shaquille O Neal or Dwight Howard. Can we all agree on this?
Kapono still has a lot of value to Bosh and his teammates for spacing the floor. But that spacing is a lot easier when Shaq is catching the ball 6-10 feet from the hoop on the left block versus 15-17 feet. It’s easier for the defense to double Bosh and get back in time to contest Kapono’s shot.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
I’m guessing some may be new to the eFG% and TS% so here’s a quick explanation
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).
TS% - does the along the same lines except it also includes the value of a free throw. It helps show how much more efficient certain players are who shoot a lot of free throws and shoot a good percentage on those FTs. For example; Chris Bosh shoots 49.4% from the field on 15.3 field goal attempts. Bosh took a miniscule amount of three pointers so that rises to 49.9% when you include three pointers to arrive at his eFG%. Now, Rasho Nesterovic shoots 55% from the field. Bosh shoots 8.3 free throws (on 84% FT shooting) a game versus 0.7 free throws (on 76% FT shooting) for Rasho. Thus their true shooting percentage is 59% for Bosh and 56.5% for Rasho. Bosh gets a huge jump because he gets to the line an awful lot more and he shoots a good percentage when he gets there.
Think about it. A player shoots 50% from the field so he gets 2 points per 2 two point shots. A player shoots 75% from the Free Throw line so he gets 3 points for the equivalent of 2 shot attempts. That’s more efficient scoring and should be accounted.
I’m sorry if you guys use these stats already. I wasn’t sure. I thought it might help anyone who did not use them.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
i’m surprised with poseys stats, good dig man.
i agree on your points about bosh. my concern is what happens in the playoffs. those lanes that were open for business in the regular season get congested, and he doesn’t have the ability to create his own jumper. you have to get closer to the basket for buckets.
i’m not saying he should move his game to a low post, but add a more consistent jump hook, or some sort of shake-and-bake in the low block. that way, he can create more space for himself, draw doubles in th epaint, and kick out to kapono for the higher percentage eFG% lol
June 16th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Dear Dave,
your Posey Stats prove my point, that there is an inneffective use of a Kapono by Sam Mitchell.
To prove my point about inneffective use, Kapono over the last 36 games played an average of 16 mpg, while Posey averaged 34mpg. From this stat alone can explain eFG% and TS%. Naturally then, he will take more shots when playing 18mpg more on average. That also explains why Posey took twice as many free throws over the course of year than Kapono.
My last point on Kapono, since I am getting bored of this, is that Kapono was purchased for the playoffs and the stats of the playoffs prove this.
Posey has played 25 games in playoffs, he has taken 115 field goals (85 from 3 point range) and has made 48 (32 from 3) and averages 6.5 ppg.
Kapono took 53 fg (24 from 3) and made 31 (12 from 3) and averaged 15.6 ppg.
Kapono took half as many shots in 1/5th the games and FILLED THE BUCKET! Something that Posey has been lacking this postseason.
If Toronto last year wanted a guy to play good defense that will disappear offensively in the playoffs, they would have signed Posey. Posey, in his 25 playoff games has scored 10 or more only 5 times. Kapono scored more than 10 points in ALL five of his games. Posey has proved that he is capable of shooting great but in these playoffs would rather jack up 3’s
(75% of his shots are from 3 of which he is less than 38%!)
There was a reason why Kapono was more sought after than Posey last offseason and why he makes more money and these playoffs are an example why. Men who can fill the bucket will always go for more money. Period. Think what the raps needed after bowing out to NJ. They went out and signed the best available shooter out there, a player who can consistently score, especially in the playoffs when it mattered most. With that in mind, would you sign a Posey, a Jones, or a Kapono?
this translates to James Jones, who in the contract year shot 37% from the field and from 3-point range. Only one year previous did Jones shoot better than 40% for the season (41.8). As for Posey, again, only once in his career did he shoot better than 40% from 3. For what BryCo was looking for and what you have shown to counter with, Kapono made the most sense and still does for what the Raps need off the bench; a 3 point specialist who can hit an open shot (2 pts or 3) 1 out of every 2 times. As I have said, since Smitch does not know how to use a player of his calibre (i.e. put him on the side of the court that Bosh is on or tell Jamario moon to MOVE away from the ball), he can been seen as a waste of money. But Kaps # do not lie, especially in the playoffs, for what he was purchased for. He can score, better than Posey. When used in the right system.
June 16th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
On Kapono’s lack of rebounding against Orlando
The Raptors were the league’s fourth best defensive rebounding team during the regular season. They rebounded 75.4% of their opponents misses which is a brilliant mark. One of the unsung rebounding hero’s was Rasho Nesterovic, he wasn’t a prolific rebounder but at 7-2 270 he’s takes up a lot of space and does an excellent job of boxing out. That means the opposing team’s centre doesn’t steal many offensive rebounds and that is hard for other players to wiggle down the lane and a grab a rebound (because Rasho is big and takes up room).
During the playoffs with Orlando the Raptors couldn’t score in the halfcourt with both Bosh and Rasho on the floor. They didn’t have enough scoring threats to space the floor for Bosh so Chris didn’t have enough space to work with. In response Sam Mitchell made a great call by sitting Rasho and moving Bosh to centre. This gave the Raptors an extra shooter and scorer and gave Bosh a slower to work on. It improved their offense. However their were negative effects on the backboards as everyone would imagine and you all saw so during the games.
The Raptors had a two part system for a big chunk of their rebounds (1) Rasho boxes out and clears space (2) Bosh goes and gets the ball
In the playoffs against Orlando this was no longer possible. Not only did the team lose Rasho’s rebound every four minutes or so but they also lost his boxing out. Bosh had to defend Dwight Howard when moved to centre so he was the one who regularly was boxing him out and keeping Dwight off the glass. Bosh was giving up about 50 lbs of muscle to the most physically dominant player in the NBA … he was doing everything possible to hold Dwight Howard off the glass and keep him away. So now Bosh is being forced to spend more time and energy boxing out rather than catching the rebound and he’s also boxing out a guy who physically is far stronger than he is who Rasho normally boxes out. For the most part Bosh did a really good job. Problem is none of his teammates hit the boards to get the rebound. Somebody had to go and catch the ball and all too often nobody did. So now not only is Bosh doing the work of two men he’s also battling Dwight and there’s absolutely no way he’s ever going to win that battle … so the Raptors got killed on the glass.
Have a look at Boston for a second - their top rebounder got 9.2 boards a game versus 8.6 boards for Bosh. Perk gets gets four extra minutes than Rasho and gets 1.3 more boards, again slight advantage Boston. The big difference is Paul Pierce, James Posey, Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen who are all very good rebounders for their position. Then you have Eddie House and Tony Allen who are both average or better rebounders. They do it as a team and they’ve held their own on the backboards against teams far tougher than Orlando.
Kapono was the single weakers rebounder out of the wings and it hurt the Raptors badly in the playoffs. Delfino got 4.8 rebounds in 24 minutes. Moon got 4.8 rebounds in 20.9 minutes. Parker got 6 rebounds in 39 minutes. Kapono had 2.6 rebounds in 30.4 minutes. Kapono is the biggest player at 6-8 out of the four players and his dismal rebounding in the playoffs cost the Raptors severely on their defensive backboards.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Hollywood Gino,
You’re misunderstanding the TS% and eFG%. It’s affected by the ratio of three point shots to two point shots. Say if Kapono takes 10 shots and makes 4 shots (2 threes hit and 2 twos hit) while Posey takes 100 shots and makes 40 shots (20 threes hit and 20 twos hit) - they’ll end up with the exact same percentage.
Kapono took 6.1 shots per game in 18.9 minutes. Posey on the other hand took 5.6 shots in 24.6 minutes. Kapono took more shots than Posey overall and takes more shots per minute than Posey (11.7 per 36 minutes for Jason versus 8.2 per 36 for James).
Posey’s shooting percentages are higher than Kapono because Kapono takes more two point shots than three pointers.
Just to come full circle on James Jones shooting numbers let’s look at his career numbers. His TS% is 55.2% versus 54.6% for Kapono, almost identical. Jones eFG% is 51% versus 52% for Kapono, advantage Kapono. Their shooting efficiency is remarkably close. James Jones is an excellent shooter.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Dave,
You forgot that the Orlando Magic, besides having Howard, also have Lewis (6′11″) and Turkolu (6′10″). It is very easy to be outrebounded by a team like that, even with Rasho on the floor. They have 3 players able to defend Bosh. I agree on the rebounds, but Kaps is not to blame for that. That was not what he was brought in to do. We should all be happy that he averaged more than 2. He was brought here to score and he did that. He showed what he was capable. Because Orlando was that much bigger and quicker and forced the Raps not to use Rasho had a greater impact than Kaps rebounds.
While we chop up the raps in the playoffs, remeber that offensively everyone not named Bosh or Kaps disappeared. Moon, Parker, Ford, Calderon all disappeared offensively. Any of those guys go off in the playoffs, its a different series. But to rehash this is futile. Lets just agree that the Raps dont use Kapono effectively.
June 16th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Also,
I understood the stats, my point was that Kapono played WAY less and took far fewer shots in the second half of the season, which would (maybe) sckew that stats that you previously made, not the ones from the whole season combined.
June 16th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
dave, where are you getting your stats from, 82games?
June 16th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Hollywood Gino,
Kapono’s playoff performances wasn’t that different to the regular season. He took the same numbers of shot attempts per minute in the playoffs. The only difference was he hit a hot streak so he made more shots and he played more minutes.
During the regular season Kapono averaged 6.2 shots in 18.9 minutes. That’s 11.7 shots per 36 minutes. In the postseason Kapono took 10.3 shots in 30.9 minutes which is just under 12 shots per 36. Sam Mitchell didn’t change anything for Kapono outside of the minutes. Same shot attempts. He did rework the offense or anything like that.
The main difference in his scoring was his shooting which went from 49% from the field and 48% from three to 58.5% and 54%. Indicating some hot shooting since it was 5 games out of 87 games. Kapono also took, as you pointed out, 24 threes from his 53 attempts. Which is almost 50% of his shots from three point range. So Kapono’s eFG% was a incredible 71% from the floor.
Since he’s been in the league for 3 years playing 321 games and his eFG% is 52% I feel comfortable saying shooting 71% over 5 games was a hot shooting streak for him and not something which he’ll repeat for the duration of next season.
In case you’re wondering, if he shot his regular season numbers and normal ratio of threes to twos he would have scored somewhere between 11.6-12.0 points per game in his 31 minutes per game. That’s good but hardly the stuff of drastic changes. That’s less than Parker scores. Why not give Parker more offensive plays?
In case you’re wondering Parker shoots TS% 58% and eFG% of 56% versus Kapono’s 56% and 54.5% respectively.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Also Dave,
Are your eFG% and TS% for their career including this year or before that?
June 16th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Raps Fan,
82games … BasketballReference.com …. ESPN …. Knickerblogger.net
Hollywood Gino,
Just to add some more information to Orlando’s rebounding prowess. The Magic were the fourth worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA during the regular season. Toronto were not much better, only two spots better by a fraction of a fraction, almost identical. Like Toronto the Magic were one of the league’s top defensive rebounding teams coming in behind the Raptors again at no.7 versus no.4 for Toronto.
Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkolgu are both big small forwards at 6-10 and posed plenty of problems but neither is that good of a rebounder. Lewis averaged 5.4 rebounds per 38 minutes while Hedo averaged 5.7 per 37 minutes. In comparison Jamario Moon would have yanked down 8 rebounds if given similar minutes, while Delfino would have pulled down under 7 rebounds in similar minutes. In other words Rashard Lewis and Hedo aren’t going to kill you on the backboards unless you’re doing something seriously wrong which the Raptors were.
I disagree on Kapono. It’s all hands on deck when you’re playing small ball and everyone is responsible for rebounding. Especially the tallest perimeter player on the team. He’s not alone but in fairness his lack of rebounding was worse than all others. I’d like to point out TJ Ford grabbed almost double as many rebounds as Kapono did while playing 20% less minutes.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Hollywood Gino,
Their eFG% and TS% - this is Jones and Kapono you’re talking about? Yes it includes this season. Frankly excluding it looks like a bit of trouble so I’ll pass but I’d welcome the numbers if you’d feel like doing the work. The formula for eFG% is up above.
I’ve another idea that might satisify you - Jones played 6 games and 24 minutes as a rook so they mean nothing (9 shot attempts out of 1675 for his career). His numbers for the other seasons on TS% range are 51%, 53.7% and 55.1%. For the same three years Kapono’s numbers are 49%, 54% and 61% (his breakthrough season in Miami).
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Hollywood Gino,
I fully agree with you when you say Kapono is a better scorer and shooter versus Posey and a better shooter verus anyone. I just don’t think the difference cancels out all the other areas where Kapono is out-done by several other potential candidates for the job.
I was reading your previous post where you had Posey’s playoff numbers. I didn’t realize he was shooting so well. I knew he was shooting the ball well but I didn’t realize it was that good. Kapono played 5 games and scored 1.47 points per shot while shooting an unusually high percentage from the field. Posey on the other hand has played in an (playoff record for games) 25 games and scored 1.42 points per shot. Wow. Very similar and Posey has done most of that work against better defensive teams like Detroit and Cleveland. Incidently Posey has a TS% of 63$ for a full season a couple years ago which was the 3rd best in the league at the time (random information that means nothing that I came across while writing a previous post, impressive though).
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Hollywood Gino,
In April Kapono shot the ball 51.4% from the field and 50% from three.
The previous three months his shooting numbers were inconsistent as minutes moved down from the 22mpg he played in 2007. You could make a case there.
I don’t know how much to make of that. That usually happens to shooters. James Jones was leading the league in 3 point percentage this season until he hit a slump. That happens to shooters. If you had a click through somebody like Ray Allen on his month-by-month splits you’ll see wild swings of hot-cold shooting. Wild swings for Posey too and Eddie House (I’m on a Celtics stat page). A shooters touch comes and goes.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 16th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Well I went all around the world there trying to explain a few more of my initial points. I feel like I should conclude …
I thought it was a mistake to sign a very poor defensive player to a team that was already mediocre defensively and in dire need of defensive upgrades on both the perimeter and the interior. I thought it was a mistake to spend 6mil on a one dimensional player who scores 10-13ppg if given minutes and is the league’s best perimeter shooter. I thought they could have added a player who had more all round skills and could help the Raptors in more ways while filling in large chunks of the shooting and scoring for far less money. The two best candidates for the job in my opinion were James Posey and James Jones who are coincidently also free agents this offseason (Posey looking for full MLE now, James likely 1-2mil per annum).
I thought Colangelo could have signed a better player for the money. Thus I think it was a mistake.
I also don’t believe Sam Mitchell did much wrong with Kapono. I don’t see Kapono suddenly going to San Antonio or Detroit and doing much better. I don’t see him getting many extra plays called for him because it isn’t the best option for their teams. He’s a role player, a great shooter and a decent complementary scorer and should be treated as such which he is. He gets put in as many scoring situations as Michael Finley in 8 less minutes which is fine in my book. As for his minutes … If Kapono’s defense was better it would be a lot easier to give him minutes but his mistakes only compound weaknesses already in the team making life tougher than it needs to be.
Daves last blog post..NBA Finals Thoughts: PJ Brown On KG’s Practice Ways
June 17th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Dear Dave,
Before we end the fun of debating, I shall as you have Dave, conclude with one last post (to match all that you left yesterday). You and I Dave will never see eye to eye on this, but at least we have agreed that Kapono is a better shooter. He is overpaid when considering how he is being used by Smitch. I am waiting for you to acknowledge Smitch’s ineptitude, but that may take another season before you see the light. Had Smitch not won coach of the year he would have been let go, and that award played Bryco’s hand. But this is a discussion for another day.
I enjoyed the stats that you have produced within this argument. You have tried to prove that Posey and Jones are more efficient players, not only offensively (with your stats of eFG% and TS%), but also naming intangibles that you haven’t been able to put #’s to defensively. I agree that Kaps lacks in defence to Posey, but I also don’t think Posey is the great defender you put him out to be. In the right system, like Boston, which plays great help defence, Posey fits well. Not so sure about the Raps though.
As far as the efficiency of a player is concerned, John Hollinger at ESPN has come up with his own statistic, PER (Player Efficiency Rating). For those who don’t know, PER is the players per-minute productivity. PER takes into account many factors, offensively and defensively, whether you are a run and gun or slower half court, eFG% and TS%, etc. For more info visit http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/storycolumnist=hollinger_john&id=2850240
You have argued that Kapono brings none of the other great things that Posey and Jones does, that he is less efficient. According to PER for the playoffs(anyone who averaged 6.09 mpg, which is what I have argued why BryCo signed Kapono so that he can score in the playoffs) Kaps PER was 18.72, good for 24th in the league. Posey (who you have mentioned has played a playoff record 25 games, which is not a stat to be proud of when your team won 66 games during the regular season) his PER is 13.70, good for 72nd in the league. Now before you argue that Kapono was on a hot streak (and something that won’t translate into next season) I would like to point out, Kap shoots 50% for his career, so 58% for the playoffs is not a huge stretch (In fact, as you have pointed out, Kaps shoots 12 shots/game average. The difference between shooting 50% and shooting 58% when shooting 12 shots/game, is shooting 7/12 [58%] versus 6/12[50%]). Having one more shot going into the basket for Kaps is not a great stretch when 1 out of 2 for your career drop that way.
During the regular season I might be convinced that the Raps should rather have a Posey(not convinced he’d work in this system, but maybe), but in the Postseason, on a team that CANNOT score if your name is not Bosh, Posey doesn’t cover it, even if he plays better D. When the team doesn’t rebound, Posey (or even James Jones) would not have made the difference when giving up 20 a game to Howard, and 8 a game to both Turk and Lewis.
I know you love James Jones, but when BryCo had the chance to trade for him(he was not signed by Portland but traded from Phoenix), the Raps decided to trade for Delfino instead (Delfino’s salary this season was 1.8 mil while Jones made 2.9 mil this season with an option for 3.5 next season). The growth of James Jones happened this season and looking at his previous stats, the Raps, as I stated, needed to find a proven scorer and before this season, Jones was not one and no proof that under Smitch he would have become one.
You have argued that BryCo has made a mistake signing Kapono over Posey or trading for Jones. I have argued otherwise. Scorers will always make more money than those who can do other things like rebound or play defence. Given the stats available to BryCo at the end of the previous season, here is the reason why Kap went for more, using your stats and mine, that don’t include this seasons stats.
Kapono (MIA)2006-7:
PER 13.87, TS 61%, eFG 59%, .494 fg%, .514 3pfg%, 10.9ppg, 2.7rpg, 1.2 apg
Posey (MIA) 2006-7:
PER 12.75, TS 58%, eFG 54%, .431 fg%, .375 3pfg%, 7.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3apg
Jones (PHO) 2006-7:
PER 10.81, TS 51%, eFG 47%, .368 fg%, .378 3pfg%, 6.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.6 apg
Using a combination of your stats and mine, Kapono was better across the board with the exception of rpg. Also as Jones became better this season, his rpg did not, still under 3 a game, not the rebounding prowess that would have helped against Orlando.
Also, keep in mind that Posey did lose his starting job to Kaps when Posey was suspended for conditioning issues. These type of personal issues weigh heavy on a GM with money to spend.
If we are going to discuss rebounds again, then regular season should not satisfy the discussion between Orlando and Toronto. If you would like to argue that Lewis and Turk are not good rebounders during the regular season, fine. But I would like to remind you that when it counts, both Lewis and Turk killed the Raps on the glass throughout the series. Bosh had 45 rebounds (20 offensive) for 9/game in the series. Lewis 42 (13) for 8.4, Turk 39 (10) for 7.8. Both Lewis and Turk grabbed more rebounds than any other Raptor not named Bosh. Whether in the regular season the Magic did not rebound as well did not translate into the post season.
Its easy to point out that Ford grabbed more rebounds but opposing pg’s generally are not huge threats to grab rebounds, and the fact that the Magics PG grabbed a paltry 2 offensive boards proves that. Allowing a player like Ford to crash without boxing out, explains why he rebounded more, while Kaps had to try and stop either Lewis or Turk who crashed at length, and who were also not stopped by other Raps guarding them, like Parker, Moon, Rasho, Bosh, etc. It didn’t matter the body that tried, Orlando’s weaker rebounding forwards killed them on the glass.
As we shall never see eye to eye on this, I am glad we have broken ground seen some acknowledgement between us. I enjoy your insight and hope you have not been offended in anything I have said. You make very valid points and I am sure this won’t be the last time we disagree. I look forward to arguing with you again, this has been fun.
Hollywood Gino
June 18th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Hey Hollywood Gino,
Firstly, I just wanted to say I’ve enjoyed discussing this topic with you very much.
So I’ve tried to write this comment three times now and I’ve failed each time. I keep switching between 2-3 different sub-sections of the Kapono topic and I’m failing to seperate them. But I’m going to get it done this time. This post is about Kapono and Sam Mitchell. Seperate from the money and free agency angle. Okay.
What do you think Kapono’s ceiling is? What is he capable of? I view him as a 10-13 point complementary scorer. I don’t think he has the ability to score 17-20 points a game in a way that’s beneficial to the team (they could throw lots more opportunities in the offense his way for him to get 25 a night but we’d lose 20 more games because he’s not the best option).
Also do you think he provides any help in other areas outside of shooting and scoring?
Also what type of scorer do you think he is? Can he create his own shot? Can he drive? Can he post up? That type of stuff. I view him as a complementary scorer who’s completely dependant on his teammates to create his shot. Whether it’s a screen, a double team, a drive and kick, whatever it is he needs his teammates to create that shot for him.
Okay now switching it a bit ….
If Kapono was playing for Detroit or San Antonio or Orlando or some other playoff team …. how much more would that team get out of him?
What were the biggest things Sam was doing wrong? Minutes? Set plays? Opportunities for Kapono to create?
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
June 18th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Hollywood Gino,
I’m going to revert back to free agency now.
For the full mid-level I expect more than a one dimensional player. A player who’s main value is scoring? Fine but I want him to be able to create his own shot. I don’t need my team to pay 6mil for a scorer who can’t create his own shot.
I don’t need my team to pay 6mil for a scorer who score’s about 10-14ppg if given 30 plus minutes. I want 17-20ppg or else you better be contributing in different areas. Those 10-14ppg just aren’t enough. Parker gives me 12.5ppg and also outscored Kapono on a per minute basis. Carlos Delfino also pipped you on scoring per game and scoring per minute. Both players do a heck of a lot more than Kapono outside of scoring. It’s worth noting that all three players took a similar number of shots per minute. So now I have two perimeter players that score just as much if not more than Kapono and contribute a lot more defensively, on the boards, more ballhandling and better passing. Why am I paying Kapono 6mil?
As a player he’s not worth $6mil. He just doesn’t have the talent required to earn that money.
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
June 18th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Hollywood Gino,
One more quick Sam Mitchell question on Kapono - Was their something Pat Riley did with Kapono that Mitchell didn’t do that bothered you?
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
June 18th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Hollywood Gino,
A few random thoughts on players mentioned like James Jones and the sort.
- Hedo Turkoglu averaged 5.7rpg in the regular season. Rashard Lewis averaged 5.8rpg. Against Toronto in the playoffs, Hedo snared 7.8rpg and Lewis 8.2rpg. Next round against Detroit Hedo averaged 5rpg and Lewis averaged 6rpg. Which numbers stand out? The rebounding numbers against Toronto. It was open house on Toronto’s backboards because the perimeter players on the Raps small ball didn’t compete and they’re all to blame for that. Kapono leads the blame, he was also a bad signing because the Raptors were already got bad rebounding contributions from the players on the team, Kapono only served to worsen the situation.
Before we go on here’s another stat - Detroit were the third worst rebounding team out of 16 teams in the playoffs. Toronto were the second worst. Difference was more of Detroit’s players fought for rebounds and they stopped guys like Hedo attacking the offensive boards. And while Maxiell was boxing out Dwight Howard he had Tayshaun Prince zooming down the lane (Pistons tallest perimeter player) for almost 8 rebounds a night. Maxiell had 3.8rpg, Sheed 5.4rpg. It wasn’t their big men catching every rebound in sight, it was the collective effort.
- I agree that Kapono is the best perimeter shooter. But I also claim and backed up that Kapono doesn’t make enough use of his talents by consistently passing up three point shots for low value long two point shots. While Kapono shoots 49% and 48% guys like Posey and Jones end up having just as much value as him because they score more efficiently by taking a higher percentage of three point shots versus two point shots.
Is that Sam Mitchell’s fault? Absolutely not. The Raptors hoist up three pointers with the best of them. Sam’s clearly not telling them to avoid taking the three. None of the other perimter players are consistently making the mistakes Kapono is. Sam clearly isn’t telling them to pass up threes for 22 foot shots instead. This is entirely Kapono’s fault.
- James Jones isn’t a good rebounder. Posey is a good rebounder. That’s why I wanted Poesy. Remember Jones is on a low contract that’s about to get even lower. He’ll be lucky to get 1.5-2mil next season. Both of these guys primary value is defensively, then their shooting ability is secondary. Jones played some minutes as a power forward in both Indiana and Phoenix so he does box out well (like Rasho does for Raptors players) and keep his man off the glass. Otherwise guys like KG, Boozer, Duncan, Bosh … they’d be having a field day.
- Kapono’s playoff stats. I’ll say it in another way. During the regular season Kapono scored 1.16 points per shot attempt. In the playoffs he 1.47 points per shot attempt. That’s a huge difference. That’s about (estimate) 75 points versus 58 points on his 53 shots. That’s 15ppg versus 11.8ppg. Huge difference. Again he did one for 82 games and one for 5 games.
- Posey defense. It’s not Boston. He was considered the best perimeter defender in Denver, Houston, Memphis, Miami and the second best wing defender in Boston. His perimeter defense turned Memphis around from being one of the softest defensive teams in the league into a good defensive teams in the league. It wasn’t Pau Gasol that was down there stopping guys. It was Posey locking up every small forward that crossed his path. He was the only personnel change of note and the Grizzlies went from 27th in defensive efficiency to 11th. His coach started him ahead of Battier (who was on the team the season before) because Posey was a better defender (the scales have tipped the other way over the last 2-3 years but Posey is still a very good defender). Again my point was that it’s not Boston that’s making Posey a top defender. He was that for the duration of his career. Posey was also one of the key guys (along with Haslem) locking up Dirk Nowitzki in the 2006 NBA Finals.
- Riley’s thoughts. Pat Riley has come out and said letting James Posey was a big mistakes. He’s said from the minute he saw Toronto’s offer that it was too much money for Kapono and he’s never publicly changed his mind on that. He was right on Kapono and right at the second attempt on Posey.
- Fun stat - The Blazers won 33 of 58 games when James Jones played. When he did not play (injury - also caused his shooting slump and why he lost 3 point shooting title this year) they won only 8 of 24 games. He’s an intanglibles guy that has a calming effect on everyone around him. He does the little things that are so hard to capture in stats. The Blazers also won a higher percentage of games the more minutes he played. Doesn’t mean a whole lot, could just be a very wierd co-incidince that lasted 60 games but it does indicate some things which are there in his game.
- I don’t like PER very much. It shows no interest in defensive ability. That’s why Zach Randolph is one of the better players in the league by that measurement. It values guys who shoot a lot and it doesn’t care if they’re efficient either. It cares that you got 20 points, not that you got it in 10 shots or 50 shots. Bruce Bowen has been one of the best defensive players in the league for years and a key starter on several championship caliber teams. His PER is 6 or something like that.
- I disagree on James Jones’ growth. He’s pretty much the same player he always was. He just shot a better percentage. He played the game the same way; same defense, same rebounding, same passing, same hustle, same off the ball movement. He has averaged more rebounds, assists and points in other seasons of his career. His shooting percentage was just higher. There was very little growth in his game.
- Riley did drop Posey. I thought that was a mistake on his part.
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
June 18th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
kapono is clearly a complimentary scorer. anything more then 10-13 a night would impact on bosh’s (and our new stud at 3) effectiveness. i really can’t see him doing more then 17 a night, regardless of the amount of looks he gets because he can’t create his own scoring opps with any regular effectiveness.
he would definitely have cleaner looks in detroit, san antonio and orlando because of the space that would be created for him from the fantastic post play.
riley had shaq and wade to get kapono space to shoot. smitch had no such luxury. that being said, he also didn’t run a single play to get the guy a clean look.
June 18th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Just to brighten the day up with some Sam Mitchell cheer let me tell you a few of the reasons why I value him as a head coach.
(1) Only 5 teams in the league have a second scorer below 15ppg. Three of those teams are near the bottom of the lottery. The other two are Cleveland and Toronto. Bosh isn’t LeBron. Out of the whole NBA Toronto has the lowest second scorer with Anthony Parker at 12.5ppg. Again Big Z or Anthony Parker?
(2) Despite the complete lack of scorers and ensuing offensive difficulties the Toronto Raptors ranked 8th in offensive effieciency (pts per 100 possessions). They also ranked 7th in eFG%. The lead the league in limiting their turnovers.
All these things I’ve mentioned so far are impossible for a team that’s been badly prepared or struggles with motivation. Simply put the Raptors have nowhere near the firepower needed to land those numbers.
In case you were wondering Cleveland was 19th in efficiency, 25th in eFG% and 15th in turnovers. Remember LeBron and Z … versus Bosh and Anthony Parker.
(3) Toronto are a team full of below par defenders. Their perimeter defense is weak and their interior defense needs help. We all agree on this. Despite this the Raptors edge their way into the upper half of the league by finishing 14th in defensive efficiency (12th last year, less injuries) bypassing so many of their defensive flaws.
(4) Toronto’s best rebound is Bosh at 8.7rpg. Only one other player averaged over 5rpg (Moon 6.2rpg). Despite this the Raptors finished fourth best in defensive rebounding.
This is a team that gives everything it’s got for their Head Coach. They’re clearly motivated and clearly very well prepared. This is not a team that is underachieving. Virtually any other coach in this league would be getting worse results than Sam Mitchell with this roster. This roster lacks talent, not a talented Head Coach.
Want a better defense? Then stop signing players like Jason Kapono and sign some guys that can D up. No coach in the league turns this group into a lock down team.
Sam Mitchell is getting an incredible amount out of this roster.
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
June 18th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I didn’t Kapono got any less screens off the ball than Finley did in San Antonio or Jarvis Hayes did in Detroit or Mo Evans/Bogans did in Orlando.
Minutes was the biggest impact on Kapono’s scoring average. He got the same number of shots as he did in Miami on a per minute basis (slightly more even). Kapono also didn’t get any more plays ran for him while playing for the Heat. He was a stand still shooter.
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
June 18th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Let’s take another approach and look at a Jason Kapono set play versus a typical Raptors play like the high screen and roll.
For example, when the Raps run a high screen and roll (let’s say Calderon and Bosh) they have these options (1) Bosh rolls to the hoop and gets the pass for a short shot (2) Bosh pops out for a jump shot (4) Calderon steps behind the screen and hits a three or long jump shot (5) Calderon drives to the rim and hits a layup (6) Calderon drives and kicks to any of the three jump shooters spacing the floor (including Kapono) if the defense collapses on him.
Now let’s say they run two off the ball screens on the baseline for Kapono. Let’s say Kapono starts on the left wing runs by the first screen on the left low post area, under the rim, runs through a second screen on the other side of the lane and makes himself available for the ball - at this stage the only scoring threat open is Kapono and none of his teammates. So only one player is a threat to score and only one player is involved as a scoring threat. Neither of the picks are scoring threats, the passer isn’t a scoring threat and neither is the other perimeter player at this stage in the offense.
After the pass is completely none of the other four players become scoring threats because Kapono is below average at - Driving, passing, ballhandling, playmaking, creating for his teammates and for the main reason that the opposition is perfectly happy with Kapono trying to get his shot versus Bosh or a wholly involved Raptors team.
There’s a typical play for Kapono verus a typical play the Raptors routinely run. Notice how many more players are involved and how many more ways there are to score from different spots on the floor. That’s why Kapono doesn’t deserve more plays.
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
June 18th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Raps Fan
Thanks for sorting through the rubble of this argument.lol. As you and Dave have pointed out Kap is complimentary scorer. 100%. I have not argued otherwise or that he should be starting or playing 40 minutes a night. I agree Posey is a better defender, hands down. Does Kapono need his team to help create his shot? Absolutley. I haven’t denied any of these things.
I have been stating Bryco’s decision was based on scoring, when an ill-prepared Raps team could not score or hit an open jumper for their life against NJ and were easily knocked out of the playoffs. If I was in his shoes and needed scoring help, I would have bought the best scorer out there. By the numbers, Kapono was that guy. We all agree on that. Did he over pay, sure i could be presuaded since he is not properly used in this system. But was there a better played out there that they could have spent the money on? I personally would have love to have seen Grant Hill come to Toronto BUT I don’t thiknk this was where he wanted to be.
Colangelo had to make good and besides Grant Hill, who else (other than Posey) was a free agent to throw the MLE at who could score?
Keep in mind that Kapono is younger than Posey and still (arguably) has potential to grow as a player. WIth Posey you know what you are getting. 7ppg, 5rpg, 2asp, which he has consistently put up the last 4 seasons including this year in Boston, reagrdless of whatever shooting efficiency stat you produce.
A quick point on James Jones, I don’t think he is a free agent, he has a player option this season worth 3.2 mil which I am sure he will exercise. In any event he is not as cheap as you project at 1-2mil.
But as I have said a player that can score will ALWAYS be paid more than a player that can play D. Period. I also agree with you Raps Fan that any other system would use him in a more effective manner.
I agree that he is a one-dimensional player - again I have not denied this. But keep in mind why the Raps went out of their way to out bid all other teams for him - they needed a player who can hit an open jumper in the playoffs when Bosh is double teamed.
I will separate your points as best I can since at times we argue different points.
1)Plays for Jason Kapono
- I appreciate your breakdown of the Raps system of play. I am a basketball coach myself (NCCP Level 3) and you described it well. I will show you what I see when the Raps play offense and what you left out which adds to my debate.
You described the high pick and roll to almost perfection. What you left out was that while (using your example) Bosh and Calderon play this pick and roll together, the other 3 players are not being used. In fact, if you watch closely, they aren’t even moving. They all stand and wait for something to happen. And since the Raps have a glutten of players who like to jack up 3’s, they stand beyond the arc and wait. Add Bargnani who has recently bought a house at the 3 point line, thats alot of players just waiting to be fed a ball. When players are not active in the playset and stand around like the Raps, its easy for defensive players to collapse on a drive and get back easier since their man has not moved a whole heck of a lot, forcing either bad shots (Jamario Moon) or a player to dribble or pass (Jason Kapono/Anthony PArker). I stress this to players I coach, keep moving! Set Picks! Be active!
You proved my point above though Dave. When the Raps run their offense, either through Bosh or through Kapono, anyone not into the play stands still. THAT is why this is an ineffective system.
-That being said, what I believe could and should be done differently and was finally implimented by Smitch in the playoffs, was the off screens. He finally told the other players on the floor to move around and create space for themselves and others. What I have meant by Kaps not being used efficiently is that if he stand and waits for shots without being helped by his teammates, that inefficient use. He won’t get the best shot and as I said above his defender will close out easier, forcing him to move the ball. When playing the high pick and roll, the half court floor (when divided in half) will have 3 players on one side and two on the other. The side the pg chooses oviously has 3 when he runs the pick. With Kap on the strong side forced the defense to play more honest due to teh scoring threat.
What made this successful for Kapono in the post season was the off screen when he was on the weak side. With Rasho off the floor and playing with a smaller, (arguably) faster and better shooting unit, Kaps would be left on a side with another shooter. I agree with you that he ( and all rap shooters for that matter) needs help getting open, and when the Raps had off screens run for or by Kap, that opened another option other than Bosh and Calderon/Ford to score.
I am not arguing that every play has to go through Kapono, or that he touches the ball each possession when on the floor. We agree that he is one of the best pure shooters and not a 30 minute a game player. What makes other secondary options successful in other systems (Rip Hamilton for example because he is another sharp shooter) is that while Billups is making his shot, or taking a pick and roll from a big, the other players on the floor are picking for the sharpshooter Hamilton. Detroit players are always moving. A system like that in Toronto (which Smitch started using sparingly) against Orlando met with some success. I am not arguing that Kapono can do the things that Rip can do, far from it. Rip, who can create his own shot, is often crowded by opposing defenders and needs help to get the ball and sometimes help to get his shot off. Once he gets the ball Rip is almost unstoppable, because he can drive and create in a way that Kaps cannot. But to Kaponos defense he did start to drive more to the basket and try to create. He wants to shed the one dimensional 3 point man stereotype more than anyone.
My point is that the system the Raps use for offense can be played better, especially when you have the best 3-point shooter in the league. The fact that Smitch hasn’t used him to his advantage shows a lack of coaching skill right there.
My Last Rebuttle on Kapono and his shooting. I will reiterate. Regardless of points per shot or any stat like that. The simple truth is he shot 58% during the playoffs and 50% for the season. As I said earlier, the jump from 50% to 58% seems alot but in truth it is not. Was he on a hot streak, you can call it that, maybe. But in truth, he averages 1 out of 2 shots a game in the basket. Period. He averages 12 shots a game, thats an average of 6 shots a game in the basket. Period. The jump to 58% means he hits now 7 shots game in the basket. Period. You are exploding this stat to seem way bigger and more outrageous than it really is. I agree that he didnt do that in the regualr season, but as Raps fan has pointed out, the lanes and shots change in the playoffs. I think I would have been more shocked if he shot below 50% for the series than 58%. All the stats about ^points per shot attempt describe types of shots and efficieny. Too overboard for the stat really is.
2)PER
-I am sad that you feel this is not a real stat. Its not perfect but does take into account a wide variety of offensive and defensive stats to come to a conclusion of how well this player will translate on the floor. As you have mentioned, there is no stat to measure intangibles. This is the closest thing. To argue your examples, Bruce Bowen, while exceptional defensively, does not make stats on offense or defence. that is why his PER is very low. Is he great at harassing others to play poorly? No question. But when you are trying to put a stat to someone that does not put up stats in any category, ( he has average 2.9 rpg his career and shoots less than 65% from the charity stripe). He doesn’t take many shots, or score too many points. He doesn’t block many shots or steal many balls. The fact of the matter is on a scoresheet, he doesnt show up, so naturally when compiling stats he will be considered lower, yet all of us would agree that he is great defensively. And now that he has aged (37) his defensive presence has started to slip and account for his drop in minutes played the last two seasons. Do I think he is great defensively? Absolutley and would love to have him on my team. In a heartbeat. But as far as statistical production, hes a no show and to knock PER for that is absurd.
On your other example of Zach Randolph, you are way off. Zach was 53rd overall of all qualified (6+ mpg) at 18 PER (league average is . But before we knock at Randolph, lets remember that he averaged 17ppg, 10rpg, and 2 apg. Why then is he so low inn PER? Because he doesn’t block shots (0.2pg) or force many steals (0.9)plus he has a low fg% (450).
I can see the point that you are trying to make but the efficiency stats that you find so interesting like eFG% and TS% are both used in his calculations for the most efficient players, among other stats.
For those who are wondering the top ten in PER this season were:
1) LeBron James 29.23
2) Chris Paul 28.39
3)Amare 27.61
4)Garnett 25.30
5)Nowitzki 24.66
6)Duncan 24.41
7)Ginobili 24.34
8)Bryant 24.31
9)Bosh 23.88
10)Billups 23.61
If you were to chose the top 20 players in the league as far as those who produce the most statistically for their teams, good and bad, are these ten 10 not in the top 20? Yes, they are.
(#10-20 in PER - Howard, Jefferson, Ming, Bynum, Boozer, Gasol, Wade, Landry, Nash, Melo.) In fact, 30 of the top 50 play the 1, 2, or 3. So your idea that those big men who just have high fg% and nothing more is wrong.
3) This is my last and most outrageous point of the post. It is to the point that I hate the idea of even writing this. All clear cut rational thought says no way, but when looking at the numbers, they tell a different story. I apologise to Raps fan, dave and Phd Steve for writing this and even though it goes against my better judgement, the Raptors in fact made a great decision (i cant believe i am saying this) not signing posey because they have a player on the roster who plays the same position, put up comparable and in some categories even better #s than Posey but cost WAY less. That player (sigh) is JAMARIO MOON!
(Let the record stand that I like Moons energy and hustle but little else and if given the choice between the two players, I would pay more to have posey, but…)
If you turn off your brain and go by nothing but the stats, Moon played better this season than Posey’s 4 previous seasons in the league.
Moon 2007-08
PER 15.08, 27mpg, 8.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 1.2 apg,
1.0 spg,0.7 to, .485fg%, .3283pfg%, .741 ft%, TS% 54.0, 52.0 eFG%, $425,000(750,000 next season)
Posey 2007-08
PER 12.08, 24mpg, 7.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 0.3 bpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.9 to, .418 fg%, .380 3ptfg%, .809 ft%, TS% 58.9, 52.3 eFG%, 3.2 mil (3.8 next season)
This is the most ridiculous thing I will ever post (i promise) but the Raps made the right decision not signing Posey because they ended up winning the lottery finding Jamario Moon.
Just for the record, I don’t think Moon can produce the same way next season and I apologize to all again for making such a bold statement. But going against all logic, Moon is the better player last year. SO in other words, we didnt need POsey, we had a better version on our team already. Since we saved so much money on Moon, it makes the Kapono signing that much easier to swallow.
I done ranting, this has become an unbelievable battle of two people who dont see eye to eye. I havent even fully disected your posts yet and I am already sick of this conversation. I was happy to leave this alone after our last conclusions, but this will be my last. Feel free to respond to this if you need the last word but I am spent and I am sure all other reading this have had their fill of it already ( icant beleieve anyone other than us are still reading this past Raps Fan).
You argue well and again i look forward to disagreeing with you in the future, hopefully on something way more important than kapono vs posey. I think we can both agree that we are stuck with Kapono good or bad. Just pray that I am right for the Raps sake.
June 19th, 2008 at 3:44 am
Hey Hollywood Gino,
You’re right about James Jones. I thought it was a team option so I presumed they wouldn’t pull the trigger. It’s a player option so he will definitely take that since it’s above his market value right now. He won’t be a free agent this summer. Next summer 1-2mil book it! Good catch.
I’d disagree about the shooters not being involved on the screen and rolls. They are stagnant but they’re also very important in creating the spacing for Bosh/Calderon and are one-two passes away from getting an open shot if the defense is forced to help the action. I think they’re very involved. The difference between the Kapono set play is that the defense is very unlikely to be forced to help in that situation so the shooters aren’t as involved because they’re not a threat. Now if Kapono could put the ball on the floor and create he could force the defense to collapse and get the shooters involved they would be a postive threat but he doesn’t do that. For example develop a picture where your shooters aren’t good shooters, they’re now bad shooters who can’t shoot from the perimeter, now see how much the screen and roll play changes because the opposition will be jumping down helping on the screen and roll. If the play changes that much then they’re involved. They’re stagnant but involved.
You’re a Jamario Moon fan? I like Moon as you probably could have guessed. He’s a solid player. Needs a better outside shot for this team though, on a team like this where they lack a second scorer it’s imperative the wings can shoot to give Bosh spacing. I loved his movement off the ball offensively and his hustle/defense/rebounding. I would have liked to have seen him play more against Orlando. Moon is already amongst the best rebounding small forwards in the league. I’d disagree that he’s anywhere near Posey’s class though as a defensive player. I rate Moon as a slightly above average defender. He just looks better in comparison to weak defenders on the Raptors wing. If he were a top defender himself and Parker would be a much more impressive and impactful combination defensively. Also Moon didn’t do a whole lot of quality defensive work limiting top opposing offensive small forwards during this season, they generally played well against him because he lacked the bulk to contain them physically. Jamario Moon was a very good pickup by Colangelo. Bryan did well, very good addition. It’ll be interesting to see if Moon can add more to his game over the next two years. I do hope Moon can become the defender Posey is, I think he has a lot of room to improve defensively as he gets more NBA experience under his belt.
The Raptors perimeter defense would have been pretty nice with Posey, Parker, Moon out there on the wings.
My Kapono case - Doesn’t contribute enough outside of shooting/scoring for my taste. Doesn’t score enough for me to look past that. Is a role player. Wasn’t worth the MLE.
Daves last blog post..Doc Rivers Joins A Select Few
May 8th, 2009 at 6:50 am
GkZcBH comment5 ,