I want to start by apologizing to the 12 or so people who read my blog for being so quiet this off-season. Aside from the rumors and the trades, nothing interests me about it. With little on the line, pre-season game’s lack focus and intensity, and really, I can’t stomach watching Graham, Baston and Moon playing 20+ minutes of WNBA caliber basketball. I am too emotionally invested in this team to watch half ass ball…my nerves are strictly reserved for regular season/playoffs.
I have a little bit to say about the state of the union, some thoughts, and an 11th hour plug for the tickets give-a-away:
Who will start at the three spot?
Speculate all you want: this guy had a better practice than that guy, the other guy had a better showing against Real Madrid…whatever…doesn’t matter. Colangelo let MoPete walk, and gave Kapono the full mid-level. Is there really any question? Do you really think BC would make that sort of move, and not insist on his man starting?
Lest we forget, this time last year, Bargnani was seemingly the clear cut flop of the draft. BC had a heart-to-heart with Mitchell, Bargnani got some minutes out of the blue, and the rest is history. I really don’t see this year being any different. Graham might start to being with, but BC will have another heart-to-heart, and Kapono will be our starting three, end of story.
Are the Raptors good enough to contend in the East?
A resurgent East at that! I say no. Will they make the playoffs? They might slip in with the 7th or 8th seed - depending on how other teams do. I suspect 47 wins wont win the Atlantic, and I also suspect they wont even win 47.
I think we can all agree that Boston will win the Atlantic. I don’t think I am going out on a limb on this. Say what you will about their bench, this team is pretty solid 1-7. That is really all you need. Look at Phoenix; they are weak after 7 or 8. Without looking at their schedule, and barring any injuries, they are good for about 50+ wins. Some of these 27 or so wins will come at the Raptors expense. Last season, we went 4-1 against the Celtics. This year, we play them 4 times, and I think were going to drop two or three of them. That puts us at 44 or 45 wins. We split with Jersey last season, I expect the same this year. We took 3 of 4 from the Knicks. Out of respect for the duo of Randolph and Curry, and our lack of size up front…I say we split. So were are down to 43 or 44 wins.
If 44 wins does get us into the playoffs, what then? We either play:
- A very deep Detroit with a chip on their shoulder, and something to prove
- A viciously hungry Boston squad
- Last seasons Eastern Conference champions, the Cavs
- An Orlando team with their new $120 million dollar man, you might have heard of him…Rashard Lewis?
These are my top four teams in the east. Can we seriously even believe we can beat any of these guys in a 7 game series, without home court (not that home court helped us any last year).
What about the bench? Yay for the bench!
The bench is just that, a bench. You hope they will be able to maintain the pace and momentum while your starters are resting…for short bursts. That is it. If the bench was able to do more than that, then they would be starters. Say what you will about how deep our bench is, they do not compare to the 2003-2004 Memphis Grizzlies. And we saw how they self destructed.
Your rotation needs to be tight heading into the playoffs, 8 or 9 deep at the most. In my world, a really deep bench hurts you just as much as it helps. And with a head coach who has no real strategy, it just serves up a line of pawns for him to throw at a situation until something happens, if indeed something does happen. And we all saw how it didn’t.
Shameless Plug.
There is only 6 days left to sign up for a chance to win two tickets to home opener. Rules, regulations and details are here. Sign up here.
Technorati Tags: Maceo Baston, Jamario Moon, Joey Graham, Jason Kapono, Sam Mitchell, Bryan Colangelo, Memphis Grizzlies, Boston Celtics, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Andrea Bargnani, Morris Peterson
October 26th, 2007 at 9:22 am
I know it’s preseason and the game doesn’t mean shit but we did manhandle the Cavs last night. I still think we don’t have what it takes to win the Atlantic (I think NJ will, not the Celtics) but I’d say finishing sixth behind Det, NJ, Bos, Chi, Cle wouldn’t be a horrible season. We’d probably play Chicago or Cleveland in a series and I like my chances there. I doubt the Bulls will be getting Kobe and if they don’t, they’re beatable.
> a really deep bench hurts you just as much as it helps
You need to explain that to me further.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:45 am
NJ definately has the ability to win the atlantic, they will need to be injury free. they have this year, maybe next year to make another run before jason kidd is too old.
as far as my bench comment, the only point i was trying to make is that when you have a deep bench, and no real strategy behind the bench, what happens is that you keep throwing one of your interchangeable pieces out at the problem, and hope something comes out of it.
we all saw how that work during the regular season. but come playoff time, the rules of engagement changed. the rotation needs to be tight, people need to know there roles, and they have to be extremely comfortable with the other players on the court. we didnt see any of that last year in the playoffs. no one looked like they knew what they were doing, and it didnt work to just substitute this guy for that guy. i could be way off, but having an 11 deep bench didnt work for memphis back then, and i dont see it working for us now.
as for last nights game, we pissed on the cavs. i actually watched half the game on game in an hour.
who do you see rounding out the playoff teams? orlando, washington, milwaukee?
October 29th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
I think Washington might be tough again and could easily end up having a better record than us. I know I might be shortchanging the Raptors but I really want them to play a few games before I start predicting stuff…
October 29th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
i agree. i was just thinking that too. not about washington, about short changing the raptors.
we have had years of ass teams, it is easy to be pessimistic about these guys.
October 29th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
The Raptors have the players to have an excellent regular season. I can see this team winning 50 games, but the ture test comes playoff time. Playoffs are about defense, clutch performances and coaching. I really feel we lack all three. The raptors make the playoffs this year, no question, but I fear they will lose in the first round. The lack the grit to succeed in the playoffs. I hope I’m wrong though.
October 30th, 2007 at 12:49 am
50 games is a stretch when they haven’t kept pace with other teams in their division.
last season, size and rebounding were a factor. enter KG, randolph and jamal magloire. the raptors didn’t add anyone to address that.
i like regular season success much more than playoff success.